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[My Name is Immaterial]

That's what I already do, sorta. I pull the data from 365 days prior, and then compare daily change. What I should do is pull data from 364 days, not counting leap years, of course, but that's a next step I'm not ready to put my brain to work on.

[My Name is Immaterial]

May 14th's prediction is 1865. With 4 hours left in the day by the forum's count, and only 1662 posts made today, the prediction is probably going to a little low, but who knows?

2065, exactly 200 off. 10% off aint bad.
May 15's prediction is 2035.7, but I'm expecting between 1875 and 2195, with about 50% certainty.

[My Name is Immaterial]

2018 posts! 18 posts off! .88% off!
May 16th, we should see ~2054 posts.

[Zrk2]

-snip-

Huh. That's pretty neat. Is the data more or less exponential?

Not sure what you mean. There are no exponents involved, if that's what you're asking.

That if one were to just plot the number of registrants/day it would form an exponential curve.

[My Name is Immaterial]

-snip-

Huh. That's pretty neat. Is the data more or less exponential?

Not sure what you mean. There are no exponents involved, if that's what you're asking.

That if one were to just plot the number of registrants/day it would form an exponential curve.

You mean just the New Members/Day, sans prediction? I've graphed that. Or are you referring to something else?

[My Name is Immaterial]

May 16th, we should see ~2054 posts.

2186 posts! I'm loving this accuracy.
~2164 posts on the 17th.

[My Name is Immaterial]

~2164 posts on the 17th.

1954. 9.7% off.

1951 for the 18th.

[My Name is Immaterial]

1951 for the 18th.

2872 is very off.

So, what do you all want me to do with this predictive program? Continue to post predictions like this every day? Let it run in the background, gathering more data? I don't mind continuing, and I don't mind stopping.

[Skyrunner]

Collect data and do predictions for longer periods at a time.

Try developing better models.

Stuff like that. :v

[My Name is Immaterial]

I can do that.

[My Name is Immaterial]

Updated!

[Orange Wizard]

Woo

[Zrk2]

Huh, so growth has slowed? Intredasting.

[My Name is Immaterial]

Well, that large hump is probably due to lots of spam bots. It's hard/impossible to tell how many of those are real.

[TheDarkStar]

It's interesting to note that the forums membership is starting to go up at a faster rate.