A question of when, not if, over the longer duration. America is falling, China is rising - a sheer matter of demographics. Then India, then Brazil... Entirely possible that a President dedicated to Making America Irrelevant Again or China a more monolithic state can speed or retard the process though.
That's a big fucking assumption lel. Demographics are important but you're neglecting the importance of actually making your people useful. In the 19th-20th century China's population and absolute wealth was far in excess of any European or Japanese nation, yet because most of its population was devoted to the maintenance of its population and most of its wealth consumed by its population - it was far less powerful than any of its near or far rivals. There are optimum limits for how large a nation's population can get before its size outstrips the country's infrastructure & wealth, so for example India you pick, has an absolutely nightmarish scenario where 12,000,000 jobs have to be created every year in order to meet all the new young people entering the labour pool. This is why despite India and China both accounting for 36% of the world's population, nearly even split between them, China is the more powerful of the two. China's industrial capacity far outstrips India, her education infrastructure & spending is superior, her workers more productive owing to a technological & education advantage, her military receives four times the funding of India's without putting any strain on her economy (being considerably larger than India's). India's heterogeneous population brings with it the additional costs of security issues from separatists and religious insurgencies, which its heavily decentralized democracy is much less capable of quelling compared to China's authoritarian state. Conversely a state like the USA with 300 million individuals maintains its preeminence owing to its great internal and external security, its strong rule of law, its high productivity of its workers, its abundant natural resources, its extremely well-developed infrastructure and educational institutions, energy security & financial security.
Look at GDP per hour worked and compare the US to India; more productive citizens produce more wealth, and a greater number of citizens at lower productivity cannot match the economic output of a hyper-productive individual, as simply increasing the number of citizens also increases the amount of resources they require. No nation, however rich in natural resources and money to make made-up jobs, has an infinite supply.
I'd err on the side of more, as memes are pretty dank
I'd advise you to put that in your pipe and smoke it but it appears that you already have
dude memes lmao
(Very tempted to flip you off with something like "Well let me know when you start speaking for yourself then" since it is your words that I am engaging with gubba.)
The temptation is misguided. With great patience I implore you to read my post, and not discount the sections where I talk of
controlling land, waterways, trade routes, populations, resources, industrial capability and military power, for you have focused solely on military power. It is not my words you engaged with - rather, but a single word, that of the martial.
I think there is much greater continuity between the German and the Anglo traditions - here as elsewhere - than is generally admitted. (Take Ratzel's notion of the merchant marine paying for itself which constituted a large part of his argument for increasing German naval force and reach.)
It would be impossible for the English tradition to have derived from German strategists such as Ratzel considering how the English tradition extends far back to the Merchant Navy, which predates the unification of Germany. What's more whereas German strategists argued that merchant marines were advantageous for a state to possess, British strategists argued that for a maritime nation such as itself, a strong Navy was not advantageous, but
necessary for the guaranteeing of its security. Where the British tradition argued for control of global trade, development of finance and the preservation of continental balance, the German tradition argued for lebensraum, development of industry and the contesting of the balance of power - simultaneously constructing railroads in Turkey to contest Russia, expanding its army to contest France and expanding its Navy to contest Britain. Where the British tradition stemmed from its experiences at Trafalgar and its search for solutions to traditional British strategy having decreasing relevance in the 20th century, seeking to stop attempts at hegemony within Europe, the German tradition sought to attain hegemony over the world-island via land-based forces, and thus gain hegemony over its maritime rivals. Thus besides the superficial commonalities of the British and Germans both agreeing that ships are good, their approaches naturally diverged. Geopolitics vs Geopolitik
But in the end what is sought by this tradition is power over, the specific military force of containment or to damage an enemy or force them against their will. Yes this military power can get 'cashed' as a trade deal or perhaps diplomatically in the signing of some document at gunpoint and of course there are flow on effects (...nice anecdote from the Nepalese King btw) but the predominant and ultimate level of discussion always comes back to strategic military engagement. Reread your own last few posts and see how often the purely military domain is invoked as compared to the purely economic or purely diplomatic. And there are other factors to geopolitics - the territory itself, culture, and demographics, just to name a few that should be uncontroversial.
There is no such thing as a purely military domain, purely economic or purely diplomatic domain. All domains are in the support of the other;
A nation with a strong military can effect a strong foreign policy with which to secure markets, investments, resources and trade... This in turn causes the nation's economy to grow... Which in turn allows it to increase its military budget without burdening its economy... Which in turn allows it to maintain a strong military... A nation with a strong military can effect a strong foreign policy with which to secure markets, investments, resources and trade... You see how this goes on. It is the apex of power to be holistic in totality. To this end a strong military and successful strategic military engagements are not the predominant level of discussion, being instead but one facet which provides for the security and power of a nation - during Pax Britannica the British never engaged in a single serious maritime battle, and currently under Pax Americana there has never been a single serious maritime battle, for in all domains a contest of American power would see America victor. There is also a balance, for if a strong military was the predominant factor, then a strong military would consistently be key to success. Yet if a nation spent greatly on its military, creating the greatest military in the world - yet its military spending exceeded a depressing drain on public finances, then the long term effect would be to actually decrease the nation's power, as its military would be slowly killing its own state's economy and thus depriving itself of the future funds needed to modernize and keep pace with the progress of technology.
Not according to my history:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominium_maris_baltici
The failure of the Scandinavian powers to take control of the Baltic, and steadfast refusal of other powers – local and international – to recognize their claims, is seen as one of the factors that led to the development of the "freedom of the seas" principle in international law.
The Scandinavian (Nordic) powers, who sensed opportunity in the power vacuum created by the weak or non-existent naval power of the Holy Roman Empire and Poland-Lithuania, adopted expansionist policies which fostered conflict over the Baltic. Denmark and Sweden used their control of parts of the Baltic to fuel their militaries. Each claimed the Baltic as their own, and promised to protect foreign shipping. While the Nordic powers vied with one another over control, they both agreed that it should be the domain of one of them, not of an "outsider" like Poland or Russia. The Scandinavian powers tried to prevent the rise of their opposition through diplomatic treaties, which forbade other powers like Russia or Germany to build navies, and through military actions, whether targeting opponent naval forces, or through taking control of the Baltic ports. In one of the most notable actions to retain its monopoly over the Baltic, Denmark in 1637 destroyed, without declaration of war, the nascent Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth Navy.
Did you even read the wikishit m9 it just repeats what I said.
Also I do love this example, because in it, the Swedish military - despite its impressive strength, outstripped its capabilities to fund it. The result was the decline cycle I just mentioned now
You are missing the point, no doubt because it is a cultural one rather than a military one. (Flashback to Trump and Taiwan.) Of course there are elements of sino-soviet solidarity, and of course sending warships halfway around the world (figuratively) is a military exercise, but that's like saying the point of speaking is to make sound.
There are not elements of Sino-Soviet solidarity, they are conducting joint military operations in the Baltics to indicate to NATO that the Chinese intend to uphold their commitments to the 2001 Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship. It is worth noting the Chinese government and USSR didn't get along, shall we say, where the Chinese and Russian Federation do. All in all your last points on the Sino-Russian Baltic exercise cause me far more grief than the really should ;P
But to summarize:
1. You talk of missing the point, but have somehow managed to entirely ignore the military symbolism of military units engaging in joint military operations in a military theatre one of the militaries has heretofore never held any presence in, in order to honour a military alliance that is now 16 years old. The domestic & international cultural impacts of a nascent globally assertive China are important but it's a startling misinterpretation that deliberately overlooks this one simple thing.
2. We are in agreement that sending 3 frigates is not a meaningful force and only a symbolic token, yet we disagree in the meaning of this token; you suggest it is China imitating the USA because 'because that is what they understand shoudl be done by a power of their status on the international stage, given the precedents set by predominantly America but also Russia, and more importantly for them not to do so would be unbecoming' [sic], which I'm going to be frank is insultingly naive and puts the strategic planning of the PRC on the level of youtube commenters and ignores the bleedingly obvious point #1. It is more in line with those Reelya have brought up, who believe China is only a nation of imitators, and are incapable of working on their own initiative.