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[Baffler]

I can't find concrete details, but officials are saying that they're going to be shifting somewhat from export-oriented to a consumption-oriented industry. I can think of a lot of implications for such a shift, but I'll wait for the actual thing to come out and for people who know better than I do to go over it.

[majikero]

Does that mean global economy is going to implode leaving a china shaped hole?

[Culise]

Doubtful, but it could mean there'll be a huge manufacturing boom in Africa, Indochina, and maybe India if they ever get their heads out of their collective bottoms, if wages in China start to increase.  Still, that's something I've been hearing for quite a while, and China hasn't exactly made too much progress in it beyond the coasts yet. 

[mainiac]

I can't find concrete details, but officials are saying that they're going to be shifting somewhat from export-oriented to a consumption-oriented industry.

That was the goal of the 12th five year plan.  It will probably be the goal of the 14th five year plan as well...

Does that mean global economy is going to implode leaving a china shaped hole?

IIRC the rule of thumb is that the percentage decline in imports is about twice the reduction of GDP from whatever adverse shock you are considering.  So China previously had about 1.5 trillion in imports.  We expect GDP to lag behind previous expectations by about 5% or so in the years to come.  So Chinese imports will decline by about 150 billion per year but that decline will happen over several years.  That is bad news for various companies but probably not enough to tip Japan or the US back into recession.

It is possible that the Chinese recession will be much deeper then this, in which case the decline will be greater.  If Chinese growth ground to a complete halt for instance (pretty darn unlikely) Japan would lose about 30 billion dollars in exports to China per year.  That would probably mean a recession for Japan but probably not a self-reinforcing recessionary spiral unless coupled with a seperate negative shock for the Japanese economy.  Europe would lose about the same amount of exports but spread over an economy four times the size so even that severe event wouldn't be a huge deal for the EU economy.  Smaller economies near China the export heavily to China would be much more exposed, like Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia.

[RedKing]

Doubtful, but it could mean there'll be a huge manufacturing boom in Africa, Indochina, and maybe India if they ever get their heads out of their collective bottoms, if wages in China start to increase.  Still, that's something I've been hearing for quite a while, and China hasn't exactly made too much progress in it beyond the coasts yet.

I see a glorious future where Americans work 16-hour days with no healthcare to make cheap-ass novelty trinkets and substandard food products for a bloated, lazy Chinese middle class.

[sluissa]

Doubtful, but it could mean there'll be a huge manufacturing boom in Africa, Indochina, and maybe India if they ever get their heads out of their collective bottoms, if wages in China start to increase.  Still, that's something I've been hearing for quite a while, and China hasn't exactly made too much progress in it beyond the coasts yet.

I see a glorious future where Americans work 16-hour days with no healthcare to make cheap-ass novelty trinkets and substandard food products for a bloated, lazy Chinese middle class.

That's not already happening?

[RedKing]

Necro'ing my own thread to discuss something that will have some pretty damn major effects, at least within Thailand:

After 70 years of rule, Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej has died. Beloved by most people, King Rama IX (his royal name) was stuck in a situation not unlike Japanese Emperor Hirohito, where a lot of shit was done "in his name" that he wasn't too keen on, but lacked the actual power to rein it in. And as with Japan, it's mostly been the Thai military, backed by ardent royalists in the government, that have been wielding the King's name like a hammer. Criticizing the King is a state crime, which provoked some irony last year when he publicly stated that he is just a man, and should be criticized if he's wrong -- leading some to tweet wondering if the army (remember, Thailand is under a military government at the moment) would arrest the King for disrespecting himself. And then arrest themselves for arresting the King. Rama IX was the longest-reigning monarch in Thai history, so this is a watershed event for the Thai people, on par with the death of Queen Victoria.

Now...the bigger problem is the Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn. Having a name that sounds like "long corn" is the least of his problems. He is, by all accounts, an erratic, ill-tempered, incapable buffoon. (And I've just ensured I won't be visiting Thailand anytime soon by saying that.) He's been married and divorced three times, and the last ex-wife, he demanded that the Thai courts strip her and her family of all royal titles and place her in exile.

This is the same wife, btw, that he forced to eat nearly naked on the floor at his dog's birthday party. But only after she fed the dog birthday cake. Incidentally, the dog held the rank of air chief marshal in the Royal Thai Air Force.

When Fufu passed on to doggie pilot heaven in 2015, it received a state funeral with four days of Buddhist funeral rites.

His second wife up and flew the coop, emigrating to the US. In retaliation, he had her and their children stripped of all rank and their passports cancelled. He later had their youngest daughter abducted and returned to Thailand, where her title was reinstated.

So yeah.....Thai people have been dreading this day for a while now. And he's an only child -- not sure who would be in line for succession if he was removed or found incapable. Vajiralongkorn has 7 kids, but four of them (including 3 sons) were delegitimized. That leaves a daughter by his first wife, a daughter by his second wife, and an 11-year old son by his third wife. I suppose the 11-year old would have a regency, and I also suppose that the Thai people would be more or less okay if that's what the army decided to do.

[smjjames]

Well, I looked at the wiki page and it seems that the only (assuming that Thailand won't pick a queen as a reigning monarch) viable successor is his youngest child, who is still a kid.

So, the answer would likely be found in history, someone becomes the regent for the kid. Though I could see a possible succession crisis arising.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

There's no leadership degeneracy quite like sexual degeneracy.

[WealthyRadish]

Could be worse.

[PanH]

There's also a month long mourning, where festivities are kinda forbidden. Had to put back my trip to Phuket.

[sluissa]

Why is it that it always seems the well loved, long lived king is inevitably followed up by the horrible child?

[Sheb]

Why is it that it always seems the well loved, long lived king is inevitably followed up by the horrible child?

Because a long reign with a revered king give the prince a sense of entitlement (since his father was so loved) without any actual reponsability.

There's also a month long mourning, where festivities are kinda forbidden. Had to put back my trip to Phuket.

Why the hell would you want to go to Phuket? If you have a fetish for fat Germans, Majorqua is cheaper.

[RedKing]

It's actually a year-long period of mourning, but they're only cancelling happiness for 30 days.

Meanwhile, the hardcore royalists are getting kind of ugly.

Mobs of people are attacking folks for "insufficient mourning". By, you know, not having anything black to wear.
The military is trying to discourage this "black-shaming", but they have to be careful -- crack too hard on it, and they could face major civil unrest. They've used lese majeste as a hammer for some time, and now it's starting to get away from them.


EDIT: Oh, and Vajiralongkorn has not take the throne yet. Officially, he said he was not ready (no shit Sherlock) and needed time to mourn his father. Unofficially....I dunno. Maybe he knows he's way in over his head on this, or maybe he's waiting to see if the military will *let* him take the throne.

[mainiac]

The king couldn't have been that good if he allowed people like that to flourish.