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[RedKing]

There was also a provincial-level decision made in 2007 (2011 in Henan) that if both parents were only children, the couple could have a second child.

I thought that was nation wide?

It is, but the point is that this was a decision made at the provincial government level, not coming from Beijing directly. In any case, it's been superseded by the more permissive "if one parent is an only child" policy, which was also adopted on a provincial basis and covers everything but Xinjiang and Tibet. I'm thinking the reason it didn't get passed there is that the provincial bodies have larger representation from non-Han populations, which are already worried that the Han are going to move in and assimilate them with sheer numbers.

[Culise]

There was also a provincial-level decision made in 2007 (2011 in Henan) that if both parents were only children, the couple could have a second child.

I thought that was nation wide?

It is, but the point is that this was a decision made at the provincial government level, not coming from Beijing directly. In any case, it's been superseded by the more permissive "if one parent is an only child" policy, which was also adopted on a provincial basis and covers everything but Xinjiang and Tibet. I'm thinking the reason it didn't get passed there is that the provincial bodies have larger representation from non-Han populations, which are already worried that the Han are going to move in and assimilate them with sheer numbers.

I agree with that assessment.  For those who aren't familiar with the one-child policy's myriad exceptions, the policy does not apply to non-Han minorities, which significantly reduces the incentive for Uyghur and Tibetan populations to relax the regulations due to the demographic situation in their respective autonomous regions; they see no reason to grant the same demographic benefits they already possess to the Han majorities when they're already in danger of being out-populated into insignificance.  The same permissiveness also applies to rural areas and towns, as the rapid urbanization of China and the flood of people to the coastal cities had had significant demographic effects on the interior, but this and most of the other exceptions haven't resulted in this sort of ethnic-, cultural-, or class-based political conflict. 

EDIT: Oh, you already said it yourself in a earlier post's parenthetical I missed.  Sorry. >_<

[smjjames]

Apparently a Chinese admiral (or Naval chief or whatever) threatened war over us sending a ship near those island forts.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/30/us-southchinasea-usa-china-navy-idUSKCN0SO05320151030

It's probably just sabre rattling, but hey, if there is a war over it, at least we won't be firing the first shot.

[WealthyRadish]

I remember hearing on the radio about an incident (probably years ago) where a Chinese fighter jet pilot flew aggressively close to a US plane or something, and was called a "hotdog" by whatever analyst they had commenting on it. I think I'm doomed for the rest of my life to laugh at that every time something similar happens.

But no, contrary to that article title, there isn't any chance of war. There's a small chance of escalation of maneuvers that could possibly create an incident that would only lead to war if both parties wanted it to.

[miljan]

Apparently a Chinese admiral (or Naval chief or whatever) threatened war over us sending a ship near those island forts.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/30/us-southchinasea-usa-china-navy-idUSKCN0SO05320151030

It's probably just sabre rattling, but hey, if there is a war over it, at least we won't be firing the first shot.

Ehh if USA stops provoking them maybe nothing will happen, but if they continue to ask for the bullet who knows. This is not the first nor the last incident how it seems

http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-us-china-20150522-story.html

[Descan]

The U.S. Navy was asking for it, have you seen how revealing those uniforms are? Fucking sluts.

[smjjames]

I remember hearing on the radio about an incident (probably years ago) where a Chinese fighter jet pilot flew aggressively close to a US plane or something, and was called a "hotdog" by whatever analyst they had commenting on it. I think I'm doomed for the rest of my life to laugh at that every time something similar happens.

But no, contrary to that article title, there isn't any chance of war. There's a small chance of escalation of maneuvers that could possibly create an incident that would only lead to war if both parties wanted it to.

There's been a couple of those over the years, yeah.

I too don't think there will be a war because, well, honestly, neither side wants a war.

[mainiac]

The U.S. Navy was asking for it, have you seen how revealing those uniforms are? Fucking sluts.

Mhmmm, yeeeeeaah

https://youtu.be/InBXu-iY7cw?t=1m37s

But more seriously, there's no way that a war would start right now.  The US wants the status quo, those international waters remain international waters.  China can't change the status quo yet because all those fancy high tech weapons of theirs aren't ready yet.  Maybe 10 (or 20) years down the line when both sides actually have a navy we will need to be worried.

[Loud Whispers]

You don't start a land war with China but China also knows you don't start a naval war with America, all should be good

[TheDarkStar]

Direct confrontations might be out, but proxy wars certainly aren't.

[mainiac]

Maybe but there's no particular reason to expect a proxy war over this.

As long as the US sails it's warships through those waters without consultation with the Chinese, there is no way that China can present it's claims as fait accompli.  So China will keep saying "it's ours" and Taiwan+Philippines+Vietnam+Japan will keep disagreeing.  As long as China isn't willing to threaten the US with war over the issue, the waters are de facto international waters.  So China wouldn't gain anything on this issue by trying to muscle Vietnam for example, it's the US they'd need to bring around.  And on the other hand none of the regional powers have the capability to win a fight with China in those waters, they all rely on the American navy.  So there really isn't potential for a proxy war over these waters.

[RedKing]

There's probably a higher chance of shit happening with Russian warplanes bombing US special forces in Syria. Like others have said, nobody on either side of US-China relations wants a war at this juncture. Admiral Wu's statement is primarily for domestic consumption.

Also this Reuters article seems written expressly to make shit out of this that isn't there.

The U.S. Navy is operating in a maritime domain bristling with Chinese ships.

While the U.S. Navy is expected to keep its technological edge in Asia for decades, China's potential trump card is sheer weight of numbers, with dozens of naval and coastguard vessels routinely deployed in the South China Sea, security experts say.

Oooh. Whatever would we do against dozens of corvettes and frigates?
The PLAN South Sea Fleet has:

10 DDs (3600-7000 ton displacement)
17 FGs (1700-4000 ton displacement)
5 Corvettes (1500 ton displacement)
8 Ming-class subs (old Soviet Romeo-class, a design that's 60+ years old)

By contrast, the USS Lassen, which we sent as a big floating "I'm not touching you" to the PLAN, is 9200 tons displacement. And that's a minor vessel in terms of the US Navy. A single US carrier group would outweigh and outgun the entire PLAN South Sea Fleet combined. The PLAN is still a brown-water navy and will remain so far at least another 10 years.

Sorry to veer into armchair general (admiral?) territory, but I just have to roll my eyes at articles that play up Chinese military strength, especially one that uses thinly-veiled Yellow Peril tropes like "they could overwhelm with sheer numbers", when the actual numbers are a joke compared to their potential adversary. The USN has more Arleigh Burke-class destroyers than the PLAN has destroyers, frigates *and* corvettes in total.

Addendum: Technically the Liaoning, China's sole aircraft carrier, is part of the South Sea Fleet, but it's still not really combat-capable, for a number of reasons.

[Sinistar]

Speaking of what China might become in next ~10 or so years: an Orwellian masturbatory material, for starters. I mean, even more than now. It's both depressing and hilarious you could further your social status depending whether you "have been instructed to take birth control".

And also: the new 5 years plans is out and so is video about it. It's... funky? I dunno. Though it is interesting that 1) it's been posted on Twitter that's banned in China iirc and 2) it's in English. Propaganda aimed at westerners, I guess?

[scriver]

I feel like I've posted to watch this thread several times now bit it never shows up in my updated threads feed so I guess I must not have? Anyway this is PTW.

[WealthyRadish]

And also: the new 5 years plans is out and so is video about it. It's... funky? I dunno. Though it is interesting that 1) it's been posted on Twitter that's banned in China iirc and 2) it's in English. Propaganda aimed at westerners, I guess?

This video is incredibly surreal. Seeing it makes me think I'm in someone's dystopian alternate universe.