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Author Topic: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread  (Read 312487 times)

RedKing

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3390 on: March 21, 2014, 10:06:19 am »

Russian
http://www.gazeta.ru/business/2014/03/21/5958825.shtml

Related bit.
Дело в том, что договор подразумевал продление срока пребывания Черноморского флота в акватории Крыма лишь с 2017 года (до этого времени действовал старый договор), а скидку Украина получила уже в 2010 году, то есть авансом. Все это время «Газпром» фактически дотировал «Нафтогаз Украины». Однако после того, как Крым перешел под юрисдикцию России, продление пребывания Черноморского флота потеряло смысл, а цена на газ уже четыре года как была снижена. То есть Россия предоставила льготу, не получив ничего взамен.

In short words.
New agreement was allowance of Black Sea Fleet from 2017, while Ukraine got discout since 2010
Do you see that major "but", which is completely discounted in western media?

Regardless, the reason Ukraine can't fulfill their end of the bargain is directly related to the Russians TAKING the thing that was their "collateral" in the agreement. It's a bullshit argument.

It would be like getting a getting a lower mortgage rate for purchasing a "starter" home, then the bank seizing the home and demanding retroactive repayment because you're not in that home anymore.

Now I'm half-expecting Putin to use that as casus belli for invading Ukraine proper (much as European powers did to Mexico in the 1800s when Mexico owed a shitton of cash to Europe and couldn't pay).
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Helgoland

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3391 on: March 21, 2014, 10:07:44 am »

New agreement was allowance of Black Sea Fleet from 2017, while Ukraine got discout since 2010
Do you see that major "but", which is completely discounted in western media?
I for one don't :P

But what you're saying is beside the point: Russia claimed the treaties were no longer valid because the new government isn't legitimate, yet still tries to invoke these treaties when dealing with Ukraine's debt. If what UR did was strawmanning, this must be too... Not that I think either post was, mind you.
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gogis

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3392 on: March 21, 2014, 10:11:00 am »

Actually, china will get benefit already, as russia is searching for bigger market in the asia and will probably sell gas to them on wery low price. So yes, there will be benefit for china.

Russia can't sell to China unless they build pipelines to China and pipelines are very expensive and slow to build.  They can't ship by sea because the distances is too big for them to undercut China's logistically closer suppliers.

They could do some shipment by rail but IIRC that's still a pretty expensive option and certainly one which doesn't scale well (lack of rolling stock and limited rail capacity.)

http://www.gazprom.ru/about/production/projects/pipelines/ykv/

It's 2017. Not like a far away goal by any margin.

That railway you mentioned is 60km long and for transportation of crude oil.
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smjjames

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3393 on: March 21, 2014, 10:13:02 am »

Related news:

Apparently, activists in St. Petersburg have petitioned for a referendum regarding the secession of the city from Russia.

Ouch, having Peter the Greats city seceede (or wanting to) from Russia would hit Russian morale pretty good. Putin definetly wouldn't let them seceede anyway.

Probably comparable to having a major city in the US, like maybe Boston, wanting to seceede.
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Grek

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3394 on: March 21, 2014, 10:14:26 am »

But what you're saying is beside the point: Russia claimed the treaties were no longer valid because the new government isn't legitimate, yet still tries to invoke these treaties when dealing with Ukraine's debt. If what UR did was strawmanning, this must be too... Not that I think either post was, mind you.
IS that what Russia claimed? My understanding of it was that Russia has acknowledged that the non-Crimean parts of Ukraine are still "Ukraine" and subject to all the treaties with Ukraine, but that the Crimean parts of Ukraine have broken off and formed their own country. Because Ukraine (the non-Crimean part) will no longer be able to lease the military base to Russia (what with it being in the newly formed country of Crimea now), Russia feels that it shouldn't have to hold up its end of the bargain.

Remember, under the Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet, Russia is permitted to maintain up to "25,000 troops, 24 artillery systems (with a caliber smaller than 100 mm), 132 armored vehicles and 22 military planes" in Crimea. Wikipedia informs me that Russia currently has elements from one mechanized infantry battalion, two air infantry divisions, an air infantry brigade, a special forces brigade and a reconnaissance regiment in Crimea. So it seems completely plausable that Russia has not violated that agreement and that the Russian forces in Crimea are allowed to be there under international law. Further, given that all three of the Ukranian casualties thus far were caused by Crimean rebel forces rather than Russian forces, it can't really be said that Russia has attacked any Ukranians.

With those two points in mind, let's take the treaties one at a time:

Quote from: UN Charter, Article 2, Subsection 4
4.All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations
This requirement seems to have been met so long as the Russian military did not use force to attempt to influence the secession vote. Russia is not using force as no Russian soldiers have shot at any Ukranian soldiers, nor (to my knowledge) has Russia threatened to do so.

Quote from: Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances
According to the memorandum, Russia, the U.S., and the UK confirmed, in recognition of Ukraine becoming party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and in effect abandoning its nuclear arsenal to Russia, that they would:

    Respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty within its existing borders.
    Refrain from the threat or use of force against Ukraine.
    Refrain from using economic pressure on Ukraine in order to influence its politics.
    Seek United Nations Security Council action if nuclear weapons are used against Ukraine.
    Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Ukraine.
    Consult with one another if questions arise regarding these commitments.
Points 4 and 5 do not apply here as nuclear weapons are not involved. 3 was possibly violated in 2009 as 10ebbor10 pointed out, but can probably be justified as a reasonable response to Ukraine not paying for any of the gas rather than an attempt at influencing Ukrainian policies. #2 and #1 are covered above in the first paragraph. #6 only applies if Russia is unsure about any of the above, which does not appear to be the case.
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Helgoland

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3395 on: March 21, 2014, 10:15:52 am »

It's 2017. Not like a far away goal by any margin.
It's all about inflicting short-term pain on Russia. For medium- and long-term damage, Europe doesn't need economic sanctions. LNG terminals, renewables and financial and personal sanctions (no money and no Harrod's) will be quite sufficient.

To put it bluntly: It's a country of ~140 million against the whole developed world, with no allies to speak of. Even if Russia finds some counter-measures, it'll hurt it more than the Europeans.
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Arguably he's already a progressive, just one in the style of an enlightened Kaiser.
I'm going to do the smart thing here and disengage. This isn't a hill I paticularly care to die on.

smjjames

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3396 on: March 21, 2014, 10:18:16 am »

@ Grek: I think you forget the Russian commander telling some Ukranian navy boats in effect, to surrender or die.
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3397 on: March 21, 2014, 10:20:52 am »

Quote from: Grek
IS that what Russia claimed?
Yes, that's their explanation why they broke 1994 memorandum. Said by Putin himself
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RedKing

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3398 on: March 21, 2014, 10:22:24 am »

Predictions on next moves?

I would expect to see NATO rapidly lining up assistance to the Ukrainian military, in the form of training, supplies and some cast-off hardware that donator countries don't really use anymore (which would still be an upgrade). Actual NATO membership for Ukraine is unlikely at this time.

Expect pro-Russian demonstrations to magically erupt around Donetsk and Kharkhov, possibly leading to more "totally grassroots, we swear we're not involved" referendums in those regions similar to Crimea. Or, things go uglier and there's some civil unrest/rioting in those regions and some Russians/pro-Russian Ukrainians killed, giving Putin a tenuous casus belli to send in Russian troops to restore peace and order.

And expect more finger-wagging and sanctions from the West, but no real teeth.
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Mictlantecuhtli

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3399 on: March 21, 2014, 10:23:21 am »

Further, given that all three of the Ukranian casualties thus far were caused by Crimean rebel forces rather than Russian forces, it can't really be said that Russia has attacked any Ukranians.

Russia is not using force as no Russian soldiers have shot at any Ukranian soldiers, nor (to my knowledge) has Russia threatened to do so.

I enjoy how when Russian soldiers are serving their nation's orders others won't even do them the service of calling them soldiers. I wonder how it feels to be taken for such granted, as a Russian soldier 'rebel' 'self defense unit' who never actually gets credit from the host government despite being sent into harms way in the name of their expansionist policies.



I bet there'd be all sorts of 'outraged' Russians had one of these.. 'rebels' or 'self defence' servicemen died serving the Kremlins orders. Atleast give your soldiers the respect to acknowledge they're in harms way for your nation.
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gogis

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3400 on: March 21, 2014, 10:24:56 am »

Russian
http://www.gazeta.ru/business/2014/03/21/5958825.shtml

Related bit.
Дело в том, что договор подразумевал продление срока пребывания Черноморского флота в акватории Крыма лишь с 2017 года (до этого времени действовал старый договор), а скидку Украина получила уже в 2010 году, то есть авансом. Все это время «Газпром» фактически дотировал «Нафтогаз Украины». Однако после того, как Крым перешел под юрисдикцию России, продление пребывания Черноморского флота потеряло смысл, а цена на газ уже четыре года как была снижена. То есть Россия предоставила льготу, не получив ничего взамен.

In short words.
New agreement was allowance of Black Sea Fleet from 2017, while Ukraine got discout since 2010
Do you see that major "but", which is completely discounted in western media?
It would be like getting a getting a lower mortgage rate for purchasing a "starter" home, then the bank seizing the home and demanding retroactive repayment because you're not in that home anymore.

Wow, wait a second. Russia already paid till 2017, we talk about deal after 2017 which is providing cut since 2010.
How your example is even relevant? It's all upside down
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smjjames

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3401 on: March 21, 2014, 10:27:27 am »

Russian
http://www.gazeta.ru/business/2014/03/21/5958825.shtml

Related bit.
Дело в том, что договор подразумевал продление срока пребывания Черноморского флота в акватории Крыма лишь с 2017 года (до этого времени действовал старый договор), а скидку Украина получила уже в 2010 году, то есть авансом. Все это время «Газпром» фактически дотировал «Нафтогаз Украины». Однако после того, как Крым перешел под юрисдикцию России, продление пребывания Черноморского флота потеряло смысл, а цена на газ уже четыре года как была снижена. То есть Россия предоставила льготу, не получив ничего взамен.

In short words.
New agreement was allowance of Black Sea Fleet from 2017, while Ukraine got discout since 2010
Do you see that major "but", which is completely discounted in western media?
It would be like getting a getting a lower mortgage rate for purchasing a "starter" home, then the bank seizing the home and demanding retroactive repayment because you're not in that home anymore.

Wow, wait a second. Russia already paid till 2017, we talk about deal after 2017 which is providing cut since 2010.
How your example is even relevant? It's all upside down

The whole situation is upside down and I guess is coming to whatever Russia decides to use for justification in what is clearly a land grab.
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RedKing

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3402 on: March 21, 2014, 10:29:50 am »

Russian
http://www.gazeta.ru/business/2014/03/21/5958825.shtml

Related bit.
Дело в том, что договор подразумевал продление срока пребывания Черноморского флота в акватории Крыма лишь с 2017 года (до этого времени действовал старый договор), а скидку Украина получила уже в 2010 году, то есть авансом. Все это время «Газпром» фактически дотировал «Нафтогаз Украины». Однако после того, как Крым перешел под юрисдикцию России, продление пребывания Черноморского флота потеряло смысл, а цена на газ уже четыре года как была снижена. То есть Россия предоставила льготу, не получив ничего взамен.

In short words.
New agreement was allowance of Black Sea Fleet from 2017, while Ukraine got discout since 2010
Do you see that major "but", which is completely discounted in western media?
It would be like getting a getting a lower mortgage rate for purchasing a "starter" home, then the bank seizing the home and demanding retroactive repayment because you're not in that home anymore.

Wow, wait a second. Russia already paid till 2017, we talk about deal after 2017 which is providing cut since 2010.
How your example is even relevant? It's all upside down

Russia's deal was contingent on using Sevastopol. Russia then directly acted to deny Sevastopol to Ukraine, thereby rendering them unable to comply on their end of the deal. That does give them the right to discontinue the discount from here on out. It does NOT give them the right to demand retroactive repayment. I realize fair business practices may be an exotic concept in Russia, but over here that's a total bullshit deal.


Let me give you an analogous example: We rent Guantanamo Bay from Cuba. If the US just moved in and took Guantanamo, you're saying we'd be totally justified in then demanding decades of back payment (it's a 99-year contract) because Cuba could no longer provide Guantanamo to us for rent (because we already took it)?

« Last Edit: March 21, 2014, 10:33:43 am by RedKing »
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Quote from: Neil DeGrasse Tyson
Science is like an inoculation against charlatans who would have you believe whatever it is they tell you.

Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3403 on: March 21, 2014, 10:30:25 am »

gogis, you should learn basics of how contracts work

You see Ukraine and Russia had 1997-2017 treaty for loan of the base. In 2010 a new deal with new loan conditions was singed. Old contract is auto-canceled by singing the new one.
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War must be, while we defend our lives against a destroyer who would devour all; but I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend.

Grek

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3404 on: March 21, 2014, 10:33:45 am »

@smjjames: Can I get a source for that? All I can find is that Interfax says that the Ukrainian Defence Ministry says that the commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet said that Ukrainian troops stationed in Crimea should surrender and something from Al Jazeera saying that Russia denies that their commander said so. I'm sure you can forgive me for not being 100% convinced that the ultimatum is real.
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