I'd say the World is fucked. And everything because they didn't finished Russia in the Cold war. That friendship in 1991 is like If Nazies would remove Hitler from power in 1944 (While Nazi party would rename and remain in power) and then allies agreed to stop the war allowing Germany to have pre-1939 territory
As I said before: The proper analogy is Germany 1919. A major power is defeated, humiliated, and left with no productive way to re-establish its sense of self-worth. I'm afraid that we'll get a war sooner or later...
So you would prefer Germany and Japan 1945, total and abject surrender? Not a loaded question mind.
I think the Russian people (!) need to be shown/need to understand that the times of imperialism, that the times of Russia acting as a 'great power' which didn't need to pay much respect to the surrounding countries have gone. And if necessary (which it might not be), that needs to be achieved through - you said it - total surrender. Anything else wouldn't have worked for Germany and Japan, even after their military defeats - the military defeats aren't that vital.
Maybe this transition can be achieved peacefully, but I wouldn't count on it. We should work towards it anyway, because the only alternative is preparing for the apocalypse while praying it won't happen.
So yes: Germany 1945 is vastly preferrable to Germany 1919. If only because Germany 1939 lies in between.
About that 'well-established' thought: It's actually more of a thing I heard from a friend (who claimed it was an established thought), but it seems plausible. The US constitution contains many archaic bits and pieces - I'm no US citizen, I don't know the details, but the wholee states' rights issue, the second amendment, the fact that the US system is presidential rather than parliamentary*, the death penalty, the fact that you guys elect your judges and so on (seriously, WTF?), and the general lack of positive rights** come to mind. Some of these may not exactly be issues with the constitution, but would have been resolved along with a major post-defeat restructuring. It's about attitudes within society as well: A whole lot of right-wing nutters would not exist/no longer be important, for example.
And at last,
a link.*It's a miracle you guys never turned into a dictatorship. In any other country the system would collapse within fifty years.
**Compare the first sentence of the first article of the German constitution (actually called the Basic Law, due to historical quirks), the very first law of them all: "Human dignity shall be inviolable. To respect and protect it shall be the duty of all state authority." In fact, just compare the
US and the
German constitution directly, and you'll see what I mean.