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Author Topic: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread  (Read 312204 times)

GlyphGryph

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2565 on: March 13, 2014, 10:32:32 am »

From the point of view of a Russian who isn't a Putin cheerleader (and is, I believe, being kept under house arrest with limited outside contact specifically for that reason although technically for "trying to steal logs"):
http://navalny.livejournal.com/914090.html.

It's by this guy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny

Quote from: Summary from someone on another board
- He completely opposes the invasion and supports the overthrow of the Ukrainian government
- He believes the main motivation of Putin for invasion is literally a twisted desire to punish all Ukrainians who overthrew Yanuck because he fears and sympathizes with that position, wanting to show Russians that 'look, bad things happen when you overthrow the government' (he actually uses some great analogies in the article that are too much of a pain to translate well)
- He actually says he does not believe Crimea should be part of Ukraine as the transfer of it in the 50s was illegitimate; with regard to referendum, he disagrees with the approach as it's too soon and too loaded but believes if they hold a real one, it will still be 'we want to join Russia'
- Despite that, he believes Russia should not accept Crimea as that would be going against the written agreements (the Budapest accords) and Russia should not show the rest of the world that it does not hold on to its commitments
- On Crimean future, he sees it likely becoming another 'weird place' as he calls it, similar to Transnistria or Karabakh, recognized by Russia but nobody else
« Last Edit: March 13, 2014, 10:45:31 am by GlyphGryph »
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2566 on: March 13, 2014, 10:45:05 am »

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XXSockXX

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2567 on: March 13, 2014, 10:51:44 am »

-snip-
If that summary is correct, that sounds like a more reasonable position. Of course, after a look at the guy's wiki page, I don't think it has much weight. Interesting though, he is a nationalist who wants to integrate Belarus and Ukraine into Russia, just in a more peaceful way.

Ukrainian oligarch Firtash arrested
I hope more will follow
Authorities say though they had been investigating him since 2006, and it had nothing to do with current events. Since he is probably not the only Ukrainian oligarch with shady business connection, more might follow indeed.

Not much else happening before the referendum I guess.
OECD has suspended the accession process with Russia.

Russia has stationed a handful of fighter planes in Belarus, probably as a reaction to the US moving planes to Poland.
The Ukrainian parliament has decided to form a National Guard.
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Zangi

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2568 on: March 13, 2014, 11:37:28 am »

I'm pretty sure the bloodbath that people are worrying about won't be started by the Russians/'Self Defense Militia' in Crimea.

They may be looking for a reason to roll out against the rest of Ukraine though.  ...  Plus, in the case of collateral damage... damage to infrastructure and civilian casualties, it is far better, in the standpoint of Russia to take the fight to the rest of Ukraine, rather then fighting in Crimea.
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Knit tie

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2569 on: March 13, 2014, 02:17:03 pm »

Well, Navalny is known to be pretty biased himself. Still, the reasons for the invasion he gives are plausible.
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GrizzlyAdamz

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2570 on: March 13, 2014, 02:50:28 pm »

I'm pretty sure the bloodbath that people are worrying about won't be started by the Russians/'Self Defense Militia' in Crimea.

They may be looking for a reason to roll out against the rest of Ukraine though.  ...  Plus, in the case of collateral damage... damage to infrastructure and civilian casualties, it is far better, in the standpoint of Russia to take the fight to the rest of Ukraine, rather then fighting in Crimea.

No it /really isn't/. A couple pages back I brought up a topic I wager is the biggest deterrent to a full invasion: 80% of Russia's natural gas/oil exports go through pipes in central Ukraine.
Screw EU sanctions- Ukraine gets invaded, those pipes are the first things to go & the Russian economy tanks, (along with the EU, to a lesser extent).
« Last Edit: March 13, 2014, 02:52:58 pm by GrizzlyAdamz »
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GlyphGryph

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2571 on: March 13, 2014, 02:53:26 pm »

And Russia has officially censored any reporting of that particular blog post or reposting of it's content.

I wonder, if I copy-pasted it here, if the thread would be blocked in Russia. Probably not, not being a Russian-language site....

(Russians! This is why "The West" doesn't really believe you when you insist you have a functioning democracy.)

Edit Update:
The Russian government has no blocked news sources that report on this as well:
Grani, Kasparov, EJ are all black for the moment, apparently.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
« Last Edit: March 13, 2014, 03:07:53 pm by GlyphGryph »
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GlyphGryph

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2572 on: March 13, 2014, 02:56:05 pm »

Reposting here so our Russian's can read it if they want:
Spoiler: Article (click to show/hide)
« Last Edit: March 13, 2014, 03:09:29 pm by GlyphGryph »
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GrizzlyAdamz

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2573 on: March 13, 2014, 03:08:59 pm »

snip

No it /really isn't/. A couple pages back I brought up a topic I wager is the biggest deterrent to a full invasion: 80% of Russia's natural gas/oil exports go through pipes in central Ukraine.
Screw EU sanctions- Ukraine gets invaded, those pipes are the first things to go & the Russian economy tanks, (along with the EU, to a lesser extent).
Heh, say what you want about globalization, but it sure puts a damper on old-style imperial conquest.




Also:
Holy shit glyphgryph, we were winning the conventional war of words- you didn't have to go nuclear!
(woo joke about 'ganging up on russians' & the possibility of getting bay12 censored)
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GlyphGryph

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2574 on: March 13, 2014, 03:10:22 pm »

Apparently the character limit on Russian is MUCH SHORTER than english, so my spoilerz kept breaking. The last third of the article is officially missing from the spoiler - hopefully this will protect us from the terrible Russian censors. In other news...

US politicians continue to be shitheads!
http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/200716-reid-blames-ukraine-standoff-on-koch-brothers?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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olemars

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2575 on: March 13, 2014, 03:19:20 pm »

Apparently the character limit on Russian is MUCH SHORTER than english, so my spoilerz kept breaking. The last third of the article is officially missing from the spoiler - hopefully this will protect us from the terrible Russian censors. In other news...

US politicians continue to be shitheads!
http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/200716-reid-blames-ukraine-standoff-on-koch-brothers?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Politicians protecting oligarchs is at least something both Russians and Ukrainians truly understand. I have had a feeling the american diplomats communicate better with their russian counterparts than the europeans do. They speak the same language.
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Guardian G.I.

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2576 on: March 13, 2014, 03:56:07 pm »

Edit Update:
The Russian government has no blocked news sources that report on this as well:
Grani, Kasparov, EJ are all black for the moment, apparently.
Grani is out for me (probably because of routing blocked somewhere in Russia or because the server itself has been brought down), Kasparov.ru and EJ are working.

Also, don't worry guys, the totalitarian watchdogs of the bloody KGB sniffing out the free people's websites and homosexuals to tear apart probably add websites to the Russian blacklist by hand, and not by snooping through the net and banning everything automatically.
Unless some of them are registered here (it could be you, it could be me!), Bay 12 won't be blacklisted.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2014, 03:57:43 pm by Guardian G.I. »
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GlyphGryph

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2577 on: March 13, 2014, 04:06:12 pm »

Thanks for confirmation and clarification. I wonder if the other two might be regionally blocked? Other-Russians-I-know seem to be pretty sure they are inaccessible. It could be something else entirely though.

And no, I don't actually expect the web-censors to block Bay12, I sort of imagined that as a joke. Although if they ARE doing it by hand, that at least puts them a few steps above the British censorship strategy which is pretty automated and also terrible.

Please try to remember that my criticism of the Russian government extends to most governments, but those governments aren't the subject of this thread. See my posts in the NSA and US politics threads, for example.

Edit:
Reports coming in about deaths Donetzk from "clashes". Don't know who, with whom, or how many. Any more info anyone?
« Last Edit: March 13, 2014, 04:23:55 pm by GlyphGryph »
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Guardian G.I.

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2578 on: March 13, 2014, 04:33:19 pm »

Thanks for confirmation and clarification. I wonder if the other two might be regionally blocked? Other-Russians-I-know seem to be pretty sure they are inaccessible. It could be something else entirely though.
The block was placed by Russian ISPs on the order of Roskomnadzor (the state agency regulating mass media). I can access them because the state-owned Belarusian ISP through which I'm connected to the Internet is not a Russian ISP.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2014, 04:42:59 pm by Guardian G.I. »
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nekoexmachina

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2579 on: March 13, 2014, 04:40:05 pm »

Quote
Unless some of them are registered here (it could be you, it could be me!), Bay 12 won't be blacklisted.
The bad thing (or Bad Thing) is that crazy psychopats that rule this country (this is my opinion only, ofc) are going to implement whitelists instead of blacklists.
One of laws (not sure if it would pass, however given how stupidity rules over the deputies) implies that a website MUST register itself on some weird crappy service to be accessible in Russia.
Won't affect much of the interested population, though: most ISPs are blocking the access using DNS, e.g. substituting addresses of blacklisted sites to their local server with special "yada yada I hate you and steal your websitez" page.
Over the years of weird shit in here I heard "The hardness of ru-laws is compencated by optionality of its enforcement", e.g. almost noone gives a penny over the quality of laws enforcement at least on administrative level.
Back when I became a 1st grade university student (5 years ago, actually) I thought that this was a good thing. Now I think that this is a plague: non-caring executors mean non-caring population means more weird laws, etc.

One of the main points in this are that government gets a lot of people on the streets to show that population supports the goverment in war movement ("Titushki" as called in UA; first time I've ever ever seen a "I want war" sign which was holded by some brain-dead commoner; I do not want to believe that all this people were not bought by govs cause in that case everything is fucked up beyond any considerable limits) while blocking/disallowing meetings of people that are against this, and most people in my circle say that they are not involved in politics.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2014, 04:44:05 pm by nekoexmachina »
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Whenever i read the "doesn't care about anything anymore" line, i instantly imagine a dwarf, sitting alone on a swing set. Just slowly rocking back and forth, somberly staring at the ground, and stopping every once in a while to sigh.
It's mildly depressing.
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