28.99% * -600s = -173.94s
28.99% * +1800s = +521.82s
28.99% * (-50% * 66s) = -9.5667s (-19.1334s with upgrade)
5.95% * 6s * 665 = +237.405s (+474.81s with upgrade)
5.95% * =
49.00417% * 1800s = +882.07506s
49.00417% * 6 * 77s = +226.3992654s (+452.7985308s with upgrade)
Therefore, golden cookies gain an average of 1108 (1334 with upgrade) seconds of progress with each click, and red cookies gain an average of 575 + x (803 + x with upgrade) seconds.
For the red cookies to be profitable, cookie chain must give an average of at least 8957 (8924 with upgrade) seconds of progress to be more profitable.
(These numbers ignore clicking frenzy, as it varies with click/autoclicker speed, and the recent -80% chance of getting the same result twice change, which may completely alter the results)
(Edit: Forgot to factor 5.95% chance into chain cookie result)
After adjusting this for cookie frenzy (assuming you have at least 730 billion cookies or so when it starts), if you have less then ~22m cookies/per sec red is better, otherwise golden is better.
(Assuming that cookie chains give ~3.3 trillion cookies average, and that all of his calculations are correct, which since he didn't adjust for some factors aren't perfect)
In either case, this doesn't properly take into account the 3 achievements and the increase to grandma productivity that you get.
Because of this, I am pretty sure golden cookies are on average better, but the grandmapocolpyse ends up giving you more cookies due to increased general income.