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Author Topic: how long do youthink dwarf fortress will be around  (Read 7809 times)

wierd

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Re: how long do youthink dwarf fortress will be around
« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2013, 04:31:13 pm »

Seriously, if the Adams' were literally unable to continue development, for whatever reason, there are plenty of very talented software hacks that adore this game in our community. Even if Toady one had to drop the game and never pick it up, there would be a strong motive to decompile the binary with IDA pro, or similar, then clean up and re-engineer the resulting decompiled assembly.

It might make copyright trolls scream for bloody retribution, but I believe that mutual respect for toady is why such a decompile hasn't happened already. (Or, if it has, why the person who did it has not shared the decompiled source)

This game would surely get forked, and get a community maintained project for it, one way or another;  Even if that is as a ground up reimplementation of the game, like OpenTransport Tycoon. That's what I see happening in the unlikely event of a serious life changing event for Toady One or his brother. More likely, Toady would want to see his creation live on legitmately, and release the code under some kind of restrictive license all by himself.

This game has too much of a cult following and will never die.

It's like Rocky Horror. It is too horrible to ever forget, and too novel to simply ignore.

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paldin

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Re: how long do youthink dwarf fortress will be around
« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2013, 04:56:45 pm »

This game is a continuation of Nethack. It is not a mod nor an expansion, but the only special difference is the RTS game of fortress mode. Dwarf Fortress will continue as long as some guy thinks it's a good idea to host it in the cloud and other people manage to find it. I found this game while looking for Steam sales and a 3d-clone with gnomes had a beta available. I was looking at the description and it referenced Bay12 and Dwarf Fortress. The learning curve will definitely keep out the more obvious trolls (as they wouldn't be able to communicate without giving away their lack of playing) and the community itself already keeps out the squeamish. There was a thread recently that asked what barrels of blood were used for, and somehow managed to reference Auschwitz gas chambers (using FB extract barrels) in just the first page of replies.

A company like EA would never buy the rights to this game because the standard interface looks like ascii art (even though that's just a spritemap) and the community already talks about killing babies like it's some rite of passage. If there's no 3D-FPS port possible and lacks big tittied models (pun intended, if you know 3D programming), then there's just not a market in their eyes.

The biggest threat is a competitor game that uses more attractive graphics, better compression for saves, and has better implementation of pathfinding (eliminating FPS death). Though I doubt anyone would be nearly as well researched as this game (it's the ONLY game where you can't mine for iron that I've ever played) to pull off anywhere near the complexity in a !fun! manner.
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Merendel

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Re: how long do youthink dwarf fortress will be around
« Reply #17 on: July 02, 2013, 10:30:06 pm »

A company like EA would never buy the rights to this game because the standard interface looks like ascii art (even though that's just a spritemap) and the community already talks about killing babies like it's some rite of passage. If there's no 3D-FPS port possible and lacks big tittied models (pun intended, if you know 3D programming), then there's just not a market in their eyes.
Never underestimate EA's greed.   If they thought DF had a big enough market appeal I have no doubt they would buy it just for the name, slap the name on the box of a game that may or may not even have a dwarf or a fortress in it at all, and try to sell a rehashed sequel every 6 months on top of a wad of DLC.  Meanwhile they would just sit on the code for the DF we all know and love and never do a thing with it.
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Abraxis

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Re: how long do youthink dwarf fortress will be around
« Reply #18 on: July 03, 2013, 01:00:09 am »

Seriously, if the Adams' were literally unable to continue development, for whatever reason, there are plenty of very talented software hacks that adore this game in our community. Even if Toady one had to drop the game and never pick it up, there would be a strong motive to decompile the binary with IDA pro, or similar, then clean up and re-engineer the resulting decompiled assembly.

I'm pretty sure it would be faster to just code everything yourself from scratch, wouldn't it?  while hoping you're able to solve all the problems toady has.  It might be a handy reference if you get stuck but at the end of the day...

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skezixx

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Re: how long do youthink dwarf fortress will be around
« Reply #19 on: July 03, 2013, 07:33:54 am »

If E.A. Ever got a hold of d.f. IM not to sure that it would ever make it past the test audience this is most definitely not for the masses winch is were I feel most of the appeal comes from for me at least any way. God forbid if anything did happen to either of the devs of this wondrous fantasy word/time suck I honestly feel that this twisted yet big hearted community of ours would pull together to help with any bills they had
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We must raise money. DF needed a legal defense fund eventually anyway. Concerned parents will find us eventually.

Fenrisson

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Re: how long do youthink dwarf fortress will be around
« Reply #20 on: July 03, 2013, 08:01:46 am »

I belive (as stated before), that a major company would suck the heart and soul out of DF. What makes DF unique is the freedom every player has to make the game what he wants it to be. The limitation are few and every gamestart has new apeals and problems. Also a player can easily mod the game to what he wants it to be those are all point, that dont make a lot of money in the long term. The game lives from its long term complexity rather than from a fast action developments...
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Rose

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Re: how long do youthink dwarf fortress will be around
« Reply #21 on: July 03, 2013, 08:11:30 am »

On September 23rd, 2042, all copies of all versions of the game will simultaneously be deleted. No backups will remain.
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Drazinononda

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Re: how long do youthink dwarf fortress will be around
« Reply #22 on: July 03, 2013, 08:21:29 am »

I was actually just about to say that Dwarf Fortress is likely to outlast humankind. Even if development stopped now and never picked back up, copies of 34.11 (and, in fact, older versions) would probably be replicated right up to the end of our species, at which point the data itself would likely survive for several more millenia at least, though probably unused.
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Children you rescue shouldn't behave like rabid beasts.  I guess your regular companions shouldn't act like rabid beasts either.
I think that's a little more impossible than I'm likely to have time for.

Inarius

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Re: how long do youthink dwarf fortress will be around
« Reply #23 on: July 03, 2013, 08:56:10 am »

I think it depends on when Toady will stop.

If he stops in the next 4 or 5 years, the game won't be epic enough to survive long without him. 4 or 5 years = 3 big releases.
Perhaps he will be quoted during the next 10 years, because of MoMa, and because of some hardcore fans.

If the development lasts 10 years (6 releases), then I think the game will go to the pantheon of the greatest games ever released. Well, it will still be a niche game.

If it goes after 15 or even 20 years of development I think the game will be the most epic game ever made. But...it still will be a niche game, anyway.

I foresee 3 major possible issues :

- The game will become more and more complex . Going into it will be harder and harder.
Then, who will pay in 7 years, or 14  ? There is a non-inexistant possibility that the game doesn't receive enough money to allow Toady to be full development time.
Moreover, with the complexification of the game, there is also a possibility of releases being more and more spaced in time...and a discouraged fanbase.
And with time, there would be less and less new fans, and there will only 1 new fan for 2 old fan leaving.
Have you looked to the number of "new members" ? It doesn't progress anymore, and it has fallen for the last few months. And you know that new members are future fan.
There is also the fact that, as development will become more and more complex, Toady won't be able resolve everything and then perhaps won't implement all the fantastic features we all want.

- Toady becomes ill. Considering his way of living, diabetes, for example is quite conceivable. Nobody can continue his work after him if he is really ill. A project so linked to a sole man is very fragile. And even if the ill isn't preventing him to work, it will cost him a lot. He isn't exactly a tramp, but his standard of living and savings, in my opinion, aren't so important. Of course we will support him. But it's still a possibility.

- Technology :
The game will become very heavy and complex. At the same time, there will be new way to develop games, and the way the computers are working will change dramatically. Cloud gaming, lighter CPU, etc...computers could become only platform with basically a screen, a mouse (or not), a keyboard (or not), and a connexion to internet. And as CPU will work very differently it's possible that the game won't work anymore a few years after its ending ?
Will Toady be able to adapt the game to the HUGE changes of the future ? In 20 years, I think that changes in  IT will be as much different as it used to be 20 years ago (20 years ago = beginning of Internet, Doom 1, PlayStation 1, Sim city 2000, Windows 3.1).
Well, to play DF in 2033, you would have to keep your old computer of 2023, because games after that would only be downloaded and calculated on big servers. (I don't know, or something else, or anything else of this type).

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Ruhn

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Re: how long do youthink dwarf fortress will be around
« Reply #24 on: July 03, 2013, 09:29:18 am »

It just dawned on me that "Cloud Computing" is a return to "Mainframe with Terminals".

Technology changes could be an issue, if PC are no longer around for the game to be installed on.  But I think that day is far away, since there is a pretty large population that enjoys building their own computers.  Common hardware and graphics interfaces have been developed, so as long as they remain backwards compatible we won't have any problems.  If keyboards somehow become obsolete, then we would run into a problem.

skezixx

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Re: how long do youthink dwarf fortress will be around
« Reply #25 on: July 03, 2013, 11:10:46 am »

And following all the talk about e.g. getting bought up by a large game manufacturer   http://www.polygon.com/2013/7/2/4486794/dw     arf-fortress-creators-offered-six-figures-for-publishing-      the Grahams powerful road turns down six futures
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We must raise money. DF needed a legal defense fund eventually anyway. Concerned parents will find us eventually.

Rose

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Re: how long do youthink dwarf fortress will be around
« Reply #26 on: July 03, 2013, 11:18:12 am »

And following all the talk about e.g. getting bought up by a large game manufacturer   http://www.polygon.com/2013/7/2/4486794/dwarf-fortress-creators-offered-six-figures-for-publishing-rights      the Grahams powerful road turns down six futures
Fixed your link
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wierd

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Re: how long do youthink dwarf fortress will be around
« Reply #27 on: July 03, 2013, 11:33:06 am »




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skezixx

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Re: how long do youthink dwarf fortress will be around
« Reply #28 on: July 03, 2013, 12:02:00 pm »

And following all the talk about e.g. getting bought up by a large game manufacturer   http://www.polygon.com/2013/7/2/4486794/dwarf-fortress-creators-offered-six-figures-for-publishing-rights      the Grahams powerful road turns down six futures
Fixed your link
        T.y. was posting from my phone  tend to mess things up when doing so often
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We must raise money. DF needed a legal defense fund eventually anyway. Concerned parents will find us eventually.

guessingo

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Re: how long do youthink dwarf fortress will be around
« Reply #29 on: July 03, 2013, 12:25:56 pm »

if these guys get married and decide to start a family they will have to do something else. When you have kids to support your priorities change.

One way they could monetize this to a point would be for a publisher to pay them for the following:
1. DF site and forums is hosted on their site. None of their games say 'DF' or would be a DF knockoff, but they get the advantage of the DF community seeing their other games in a link at the top. So you get foot traffic.
2. the publisher will pay for testers to work with the Adams brothers. I have worked in software shops and have 1 or 2 people to test the game could significantly speed them up. They don't need access to the source code to do this. Setting up a process for this could be tricky since they are used to working alone and adding new people to this mix could be an issue.
3. The publishing company builds a 3D interface on top of the game as a mod. They don't need core game access, but probably could use some additional hooks for this. Their 3D interface just uses the existing features.
4. when new releases come out the publisher can sell the 3d interface for the game. There are mods for this, but a publisher could make it nicer and with better graphics. The price for this could be like relatievely low. Something like $10-15.  The fan base is quite large. Adding a publisher with a GUI would increase the fan base.
5, payment to the Adams could be a lump sum, plus a portion of the interface.
6. Adams can still collect donations. no change there. All money goes to them
7. publisher can add them to their company insurance..
8. probably wouldnt be a massive sum of money, but getting medical insurance and maybe an extra 20-40k/year would help these guys alot.

This has the possibility of long term revenues since you can make the 3d interface once and then add some nicer graphics and just incorporate new features when the new version comes out. Base fans can still play the raw version, plus you can get new people who want a point and click graphic system. Graphics probably wouldn't be 'awesome' since the potential revenues are probably limited, so you can't put tons of people on it.
http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/Smileys/aaron/lipsrsealed.gif
The adams have a 13 year track record of development and not tracking off. so they are a safe bet.
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