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[MetalSlimeHunt]

I'd just like to literally do the math for a moment.

Now, there are about 100,000,000,000 stars in the Milky Way. In the observable universe there are about 100,000,000 galaxies. For the sake of convenience, we'll call the Milky Way an average galaxy (this is completely untrue, but I don't have the patience to average a set of galaxies. Each star is certain to have at least some things orbiting it, but I'll take our example again and give each star four terrestrial planets.

This gives us 4*10^22 terrestrial planets in the observable universe. This is when things get murky since we have no data, but lets give life a one-in-a-billion chance of arising. That gives us 4*10^12 life-bearing planets in the observable universe. We shall further go on to give sapient life a one-in-a-billion chance of arising. That, finally, gives us 4000 sapient species in the observable universe, using very harsh numbers on all steps in which we have to guess. If it is more likely than that, and given natural selection it probably is, we could have many, many, many more.

[Loud Whispers]

I do. what?

I don't know what Panh's referring to, but MKUltra is one of the worse.

[MonkeyHead]

I'd just like to literally do the math for a moment.

Now, there are about 100,000,000,000 stars in the Milky Way. In the observable universe there are about 100,000,000 galaxies. For the sake of convenience, we'll call the Milky Way an average galaxy (this is completely untrue, but I don't have the patience to average a set of galaxies. Each star is certain to have at least some things orbiting it, but I'll take our example again and give each star four terrestrial planets.

This gives us 4*10^22 terrestrial planets in the observable universe. This is when things get murky since we have no data, but lets give life a one-in-a-billion chance of arising. That gives us 4*10^12 life-bearing planets in the observable universe. We shall further go on to give sapient life a one-in-a-billion chance of arising. That, finally, gives us 4000 sapient species in the observable universe, using very harsh numbers on all steps in which we have to guess. If it is more likely than that, and given natural selection it probably is, we could have many, many, many more.

The Drake Equation suggests that with fairly conservative estimates, there may be as many as 100 intelligent civs in the Milky Way right now (more extreme parameters suggest either we are alone, or life should be everywhere, so go fish against Fermi's Paradox). Of course, a few hundred other sentients out there leaves us with around a trillion stars each, so its not as if we are gonna bump into one another unless we have missed a Von Neumann probe or somesuch.

[alexandertnt]

Hasn't the US Government done enough dickish things already without having to make up UFO and alien conspiracy cover-up stories?

[Frumple]

Hasn't the US Government done enough dickish things already without having to make up UFO and alien conspiracy cover-up stories?

*gratuitous pointing and laughing*

Nah. You're assuming there's some kind of upper limit to governmental dicking. There's not. If they run out of ways to be a dick, they requisition the invention and creation of new, more impressive ways to dick with people. It's like the Moore's Law of assholes.

[alexandertnt]

Hasn't the US Government done enough dickish things already without having to make up UFO and alien conspiracy cover-up stories?

*gratuitous pointing and laughing*

Nah. You're assuming there's some kind of upper limit to governmental dicking. There's not. If they run out of ways to be a dick, they requisition the invention and creation of new, more impressive ways to dick with people. It's like the Moore's Law of assholes.

I never meant there was an "upper limit" to the governments dickishness. Only that there are enough examples of actual dickery in the real world to render fabricated conspiracies redundant.

[Loud Whispers]

I never meant there was an "upper limit" to the governments dickishness. Only that there are enough examples of actual dickery in the real world to render fabricated conspiracies redundant.

All it needs is critical saturation of conspiracy theories to completely soil the truth. Even the origins of the conspiracy theories get lost to the realm of speculation.

[OREOSOME]

One thing I think people ignore is the idea that maybe not all life needs to be fit our needs. What if there is a race that breathes sulfuric acid, or carbon monoxide or something, that lives on a planet that is completely inhospitable to us, but is considered just fine and dandy for them? We pretty much ignore those planets, and look for more planets like ours.

[Frumple]

Redundancy is often an administrative virtue~

Now, if it's a well handled administration, redundancy is used efficiently. There hasn't been many of those over the years, ha.

More seriously, I doubt the gov's done much to propagate that sort of thing. They don't have to. The crazies handle that for them with minimal intervention needed. And if people are drawing the wrong conclusions, well... far be it from them to attempt to clarify things. Especially when doing so has no particular benefit.

[Loud Whispers]

Redundancy is often an administrative virtue~

Now, if it's a well handled administration, redundancy is used efficiently. There hasn't been many of those over the years, ha.

More seriously, I doubt the gov's done much to propagate that sort of thing. They don't have to. The crazies handle that for them with minimal intervention needed. And if people are drawing the wrong conclusions, well... far be it from them to attempt to clarify things. Especially when doing so has no particular benefit.

"There has been considerable criticism of the CIA relating to: security and counterintelligence failures, failures in intelligence analysis, human rights concerns, external investigations and document releases, influencing public opinion and law enforcement, drug trafficking, and lying to Congress."

You don't even need any tinfoil, the government puts it on your head for you.

[Fenrir]

Redundancy is often an administrative virtue~

Now, if it's a well handled administration, redundancy is used efficiently. There hasn't been many of those over the years, ha.

More seriously, I doubt the gov's done much to propagate that sort of thing. They don't have to. The crazies handle that for them with minimal intervention needed. And if people are drawing the wrong conclusions, well... far be it from them to attempt to clarify things. Especially when doing so has no particular benefit.

"There has been considerable criticism of the CIA relating to: security and counterintelligence failures, failures in intelligence analysis, human rights concerns, external investigations and document releases, influencing public opinion and law enforcement, drug trafficking, and lying to Congress."

You don't even need any tinfoil, the government puts it on your head for you.

I don’t care if it’s relevant.

[alexandertnt]

I never meant there was an "upper limit" to the governments dickishness. Only that there are enough examples of actual dickery in the real world to render fabricated conspiracies redundant.

All it needs is critical saturation of conspiracy theories to completely soil the truth. Even the origins of the conspiracy theories get lost to the realm of speculation.

I agree with the meaning of your statement, but I do not see what it has to do with my statement. ("actual dickery" includes legitimate conspiracies, just to clarify).

[Sigulbard]

Redundancy is often an administrative virtue~

Now, if it's a well handled administration, redundancy is used efficiently. There hasn't been many of those over the years, ha.

More seriously, I doubt the gov's done much to propagate that sort of thing. They don't have to. The crazies handle that for them with minimal intervention needed. And if people are drawing the wrong conclusions, well... far be it from them to attempt to clarify things. Especially when doing so has no particular benefit.

"There has been considerable criticism of the CIA relating to: security and counterintelligence failures, failures in intelligence analysis, human rights concerns, external investigations and document releases, influencing public opinion and law enforcement, drug trafficking, and lying to Congress."

You don't even need any tinfoil, the government puts it on your head for you.

I don’t care if it’s relevant.

That song makes working at the CIA look like so much fun.

[Flying Dice]

Redundancy is often an administrative virtue~

Now, if it's a well handled administration, redundancy is used efficiently. There hasn't been many of those over the years, ha.

More seriously, I doubt the gov's done much to propagate that sort of thing. They don't have to. The crazies handle that for them with minimal intervention needed. And if people are drawing the wrong conclusions, well... far be it from them to attempt to clarify things. Especially when doing so has no particular benefit.

"There has been considerable criticism of the CIA relating to: security and counterintelligence failures, failures in intelligence analysis, human rights concerns, external investigations and document releases, influencing public opinion and law enforcement, drug trafficking, and lying to Congress."

You don't even need any tinfoil, the government puts it on your head for you.

I don’t care if it’s relevant.

That song makes working at the CIA look like so much fun.

Ah, yes, there's nothing like kicking back with your co-workers after a long day of torturing secretly detained prisoners.

[werty892]

The drake equation

You mean this one?