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Author Topic: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!  (Read 1771181 times)

Helgoland

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18255 on: July 01, 2015, 07:12:57 am »

Yes.  Which is an unusual step and very partisan of them to do.

I know I'm a terrible one for endorsing rational actor theory but I'm going to call bullshit on the IMF on that one. It just sounds like rhetoric/bluffing. It's in their interests and the interests of everyone to use the 30 day period.
It's already happened, Owlie.

The very, very first, immediate, right out of the gate step that a central bank does if it's actually doing everything it can is lower the benchmark rate to 0-25 basis points (i.e. %0.0-%0.25).  There's more then that but if you aren't doing that then everything else is pretty irrelevant anyway.  It took the ECB four years to even get started.
But my point stands: They've been at it a year and inflation still is way too low!
By the way, about the California/Greece comparison: Isn't there a mechanism for broke states to be put under federal administration in exchange for help with their debt? That would indeed be a good solution for Greece - as Sheb said, I occasionally advocate colonialism :P - but I hope you see why this is not feasible politically.
Let me try to reframe this: How would you as Chancellorette Mainiac have dealt with the crisis? (How you'd deal with your gender change is another story :P )

Don't forget. Europe is as finacially strong as it is now, mainly because the Allies absolved nearly all of Germany's war debt after WWII, as an important pillar of the Marshall plan.
Freudian slip?
Anyway, clearing all of Greece's debt would be a short-term solution at best. What keeps Greece (and Italy, and Spain, and evventually Germany) from doing the same thing again and just counting on all debt being taken away?
Or more recently, when the Berlin Wall came down, all of the DDR's debts were absolved (and all Ossi's got a 100 Dmark "welcome gift"), which allowed Germany to remain the strongest economy in Europe.
Because reunification was such a smart move, yeah, and precisely no-one is troubled by Germany being a European hegemon now, least of all the Germans themselves...
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I'm going to do the smart thing here and disengage. This isn't a hill I paticularly care to die on.

Owlbread

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18256 on: July 01, 2015, 07:22:30 am »

It's already happened, Owlie.

In the last hour or so shortly after I posted Tsipras pussied out and screwed his people over again, yeah. For quite a while now he's struck me as a bit of a toom tabard demagogue and I think this latest capitulation further supports that conclusion.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2015, 07:25:40 am by Owlbread »
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BlindKitty

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18257 on: July 01, 2015, 07:22:33 am »

How do you guys feel about the Gold Standard btw?
It has about as much place in economics as homeopathy has in oncology.  But I dont have time before work to get into why.

Well, I'm on exactly opposite side of this. But then again, Keynes should hang, so yeah. :P It would be a great solution, limiting what countries can do, in particular, limiting printing empty money, forcing inflation to steal people's money.
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Sheb

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18258 on: July 01, 2015, 07:24:28 am »

Well, I wouldn't call that pussying it out. Frankly, each side's proposals are so close anyway...
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Sergarr

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18259 on: July 01, 2015, 08:06:47 am »

Gold standard is a way to artificially tie in your hands and invalid your ability to correct for market's mishaps, so I don't see how it's a good thing.

It also doesn't exactly prevent inflation.

(meanwhile the greece kickstarter page is still unavailable)

EDIT: It's available now. It's... pretty far from reaching the goal.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2015, 08:28:41 am by Sergarr »
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18260 on: July 01, 2015, 08:53:47 am »

It's already happened, Owlie.

In the last hour or so shortly after I posted Tsipras pussied out and screwed his people over again, yeah. For quite a while now he's struck me as a bit of a toom tabard demagogue and I think this latest capitulation further supports that conclusion.

Indeed.

Some thoughts
 - This is suicide for the current Greek goverment. Their goverment partners are likely to bail out.
     - Addenum: Were I a member of the goverment and disagreed with this I'd resign and make this public ASAP
 - Let's not forget the referendum: what now? Polls say a majority would have voted (will vote?) "no". Will it be celebrated? What will happen if it isn't, or if it is and the people say "no"?
 - Likely as not this will radicalize the vote. We'll see in the next general election (it might not be too far away)
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XXSockXX

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18261 on: July 01, 2015, 10:24:59 am »

Or more recently, when the Berlin Wall came down, all of the DDR's debts were absolved (and all Ossi's got a 100 Dmark "welcome gift"), which allowed Germany to remain the strongest economy in Europe.
That's simply not true. The GDR's debts were taken over by West Germany. There was some debate about how much debt it actually was, since the government also owned all companies, so the actual debt might have been lower than official numbers say. These debts are basically paid off now though.
The 100 D-Mark "welcome money" too was financed by West Germany.
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scriver

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18262 on: July 01, 2015, 12:07:17 pm »

Don't forget. Europe is as finacially strong as it is now, mainly because the Allies absolved nearly all of Germany's war debt after WWII, as an important pillar of the Marshall plan.
Freudian slip?
Anyway, clearing all of Greece's debt would be a short-term solution at best. What keeps Greece (and Italy, and Spain, and evventually Germany) from doing the same thing again and just counting on all debt being taken away?

Have you noticed how life in Greece is kind of shitty right now? Why exactly would anyone want to crash their economy over and over again? For shits and giggles? The lulz? It sure as hell cent be the money, because Greece is not walking away rich from this in either case.
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Sergarr

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18263 on: July 01, 2015, 12:15:44 pm »

So, Golden Dawn rule in Greece - when?
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Helgoland

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18264 on: July 01, 2015, 12:38:08 pm »

Don't forget. Europe is as finacially strong as it is now, mainly because the Allies absolved nearly all of Germany's war debt after WWII, as an important pillar of the Marshall plan.
Freudian slip?
Anyway, clearing all of Greece's debt would be a short-term solution at best. What keeps Greece (and Italy, and Spain, and evventually Germany) from doing the same thing again and just counting on all debt being taken away?

Have you noticed how life in Greece is kind of shitty right now? Why exactly would anyone want to crash their economy over and over again? For shits and giggles? The lulz? It sure as hell cent be the money, because Greece is not walking away rich from this in either case.
If the precedent was established that debt will simply be erased, the next time around there would be no five years of the sort of shit we've been seeing happening: Next time it would simply be a 'Get out of jail free' card. Why not take up debt if you know someone else is going to pay without much trouble?

Unless martinuzz means clearing the debt in exchange for measures to prevent another default, which is... remarkably similar to what's happening now. And not really working too.
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Arguably he's already a progressive, just one in the style of an enlightened Kaiser.
I'm going to do the smart thing here and disengage. This isn't a hill I paticularly care to die on.

RedKing

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18265 on: July 01, 2015, 12:45:09 pm »

Helgo: Ever heard the term "too big to fail"? We had the same sort of moral hazard arguments in the US when the megabanks and automotive industries started going tits-up around 2008. Ultimately, we decided (and by "we" I mean the US Congress) decided to intervene.

The trick is to impose meaningful reform to prevent this happening again. And by reform I don't just mean "sell off all state assets to the private equity firms that are licking their chops". Privatization alone doesn't solve the problem, it just funnels whatever money is left into a few hands. Greece needs structural reform of its economy and budgetary process.

But letting it fail and seeing what happens isn't a good solution either.
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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18266 on: July 01, 2015, 06:12:55 pm »

So, Golden Dawn rule in Greece - when?
A golden dawn spokesman has been released from custody. Police told him not to attend any political stuff. IB times reckons they're dead as a political group. Though they may still be active on the streets.

mainiac

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18267 on: July 01, 2015, 06:23:04 pm »

My profession makes me sad today.  You rigorously study an issue and applying skepticism to it then people come along and disbelieve you because of a bunch of things that are flatly false.  At least in climate science there's a culture war because some people believe the science they dont understand.  In economics people dont even know what the science is saying, even the ones sympathetic to Greece believe a lot of flatly false things about it.  I will spend the coming decades of my life watching the people who have done immense damage to my field be praised for it because my field is judged by laypeople who dont understand the harm of their actions.

Well, I'm on exactly opposite side of this. But then again, Keynes should hang, so yeah. :P It would be a great solution, limiting what countries can do, in particular, limiting printing empty money, forcing inflation to steal people's money.

Yeah and if you just smash yourself in the face with a hammar a few times it will protect you from polar bear attacks.  You dont want to get attacked by a polar bear, do you?
« Last Edit: July 01, 2015, 07:32:23 pm by mainiac »
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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mainiac

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #18269 on: July 01, 2015, 07:22:29 pm »

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/should-apple-buy-greece-10244988.html

So basically it's a 175 billion euro investment with conventional revenues of 0 euros for 10 or 15 years, after which the money would start paying normal dividends.  In order to justify it they would need to get 10.75 billion euros in benefits from the deal beyond the money.  An internet cookie to whoever can think of the least horrifying thing worth 10 billion euros a year.

My opening bid: organ farm.
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.
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