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Author Topic: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!  (Read 1752274 times)

mainiac

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #4515 on: April 04, 2014, 10:42:52 am »

Sheb, every time you point out a fallacy or incorrect factual assertion it will prompt six more being added alongside it.  This is a strange game, the only winning move is not to play.
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.

Sheb

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #4516 on: April 04, 2014, 10:51:58 am »

 
Deflation would be lots of fun for people who are rich. Instead of having to invest their fortunes in order to maintain them, they could literally sit on a mountain of gold and it would accrue wealth by simply existing.

(note: not saying anyone's promoting deflation. Didn't read enough of the thread to determine that. Just wanted to pop in)
Anyhow, realistically, no rich person in a deflationary economy would keep their money under the mattress/in a cave/buried at the bottom of a mineshaft etc, they'd put it in a bank, which in turn would actually support the economy.

Besides that, a rich person in an inflationary economy is even better off, as he has the benefit of receiving the newly printed money first, meaning he gets all the benefits of free money without the downsides of higher prices. He can dump his money in the stock market and outpace the inflation on goods that the suckers at the bottom of the printed money pyramid have to shoulder.

Then the bank is going to hoard the cash. Inflation is a tax on cash holding, deflation is a tax on every single non-cash asset. Guess which condition encourage investing and which encourage hoarding cash. Also, I don't see why rich people get the benefits of free money in an inflationary system. Banks do, because they're the one creating it, and I agree with you it is a problem, I would much rather see the central bank do that directly.

I'll get to your other point shortly, I need to restart my computer.
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Europe consists only of small countries, some of which know it and some of which don’t yet.

Helgoland

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #4517 on: April 04, 2014, 11:00:12 am »

Sheb: Which continental economy is comparable to the UK's? (Minus the City of London, perhaps.) To compare growth rates we have to ensure that the other variables are the same.

GJ: What damage does a modest inflation of, let's say, 5% do? Granted, 20+ % are bad (and inconvenient, too), but what's bad about low-level inflation?

mainiac: Same question as Sheb. Also, what economic policy would you recoommend for the Eurozone? (And please provide examples of other countries doing the same in comparable circumstances, otherwise you're no better than I am ;) )
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mainiac

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #4518 on: April 04, 2014, 11:10:50 am »

Also, I don't see why rich people get the benefits of free money in an inflationary system. Banks do, because they're the one creating it, and I agree with you it is a problem, I would much rather see the central bank do that directly.

Could you elaborate on this a little?

I don't know about the ECB but in the US money is primarily created through the Federal Reserve which controls the amount of money like assets in existence.  Now banks play a role in this through the multipliers of the fractional reserve banking system but they can't make unsecured assets from nothing.  The Treasury also creates money but much less then the Federal Reserve.

Does the ECB run this in a significantly different fashion?  Or do you see this as the banks creating money, because the amount created through fractional reserve lending is the majority?

V. interested this is something outside the usual tired cliches.

mainiac: Same question as Sheb. Also, what economic policy would you recoommend for the Eurozone? (And please provide examples of other countries doing the same in comparable circumstances, otherwise you're no better than I am ;) )

Broadly speaking I'd like to see the ECB continue in it's current shift but with much less foot dragging.  The decision to backstop the bonds of EU governments was long overdue, they need to follow that up with systematic purchases and efforts to utilize the composition, akin to what the US federal reserve has been doing a long time.  On top of that, take the final step and cut the .25 rate down to 0, it's mostly a symbolic effect but it's a very potent symbol.  These are policies that are no-risk and well tried and should be considered the minimum.  Basically you could call this the American approach.

Just doing this much would solve the majority of the problems of having a monetary union before a fiscal union.  You'd still be defying optimum currency area theory but the problems would be tolerable.  It would also give room to pursue an Abe-nomics approach of shifting inflation expectations by linking intervention and communication.  A higher inflation target in the short term will go a long way to not only correcting the imbalances in the Eurozone but also fixing the short term problems in Spain, Ireland, Baltics, etc.  You could call this the Japan approach.

Of course best course of all would be go whole hog Abe-nomics coupled with german funded stimulus programs in the depressed economies, funded with a special category of bonds.  Call this the China approach.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2014, 11:16:43 am by mainiac »
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.

GreatJustice

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #4519 on: April 04, 2014, 11:43:39 am »

Deflation would be lots of fun for people who are rich. Instead of having to invest their fortunes in order to maintain them, they could literally sit on a mountain of gold and it would accrue wealth by simply existing.

(note: not saying anyone's promoting deflation. Didn't read enough of the thread to determine that. Just wanted to pop in)
Anyhow, realistically, no rich person in a deflationary economy would keep their money under the mattress/in a cave/buried at the bottom of a mineshaft etc, they'd put it in a bank, which in turn would actually support the economy.

Besides that, a rich person in an inflationary economy is even better off, as he has the benefit of receiving the newly printed money first, meaning he gets all the benefits of free money without the downsides of higher prices. He can dump his money in the stock market and outpace the inflation on goods that the suckers at the bottom of the printed money pyramid have to shoulder.

Then the bank is going to hoard the cash. Inflation is a tax on cash holding, deflation is a tax on every single non-cash asset. Guess which condition encourage investing and which encourage hoarding cash. Also, I don't see why rich people get the benefits of free money in an inflationary system. Banks do, because they're the one creating it, and I agree with you it is a problem, I would much rather see the central bank do that directly.

I'll get to your other point shortly, I need to restart my computer.

The idea of inflation resulting in investment while deflation results in hoarding instead of investment is a bit of a fallacy, but that's a big rabbit hole that I'm going to avoid right now.

On the other hand, it isn't too hard to see why rich people get the benefits of free money from inflation, at least how some of them do, anyway. When new money is created, the effects on prices don't come into play until after it has circulated through the economy. Since the money itself creates no wealth, whoever receives it first is basically taking wealth directly from those who receive it last. Who receives it first and last, then? Well, the money is created, depending on the system, either by a central bank or by the banks themselves. Regardless, this money then goes to commercial banks for lending, investment, and so on. Primarily, though, the new money will then move on from the banks to the stock market, where it will be used to pump up stock prices. Some will be used for loans as well. The last people to receive it, meanwhile, will be most of the public in general but wage workers in particular, who will get a raise well after the fact.

It's worth mentioning that Keynes himself advocated inflation for the very reason that it cuts real wages when workers wouldn't accept a pay cut, so this is hardly conspiracy theory stuff.

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GJ: What damage does a modest inflation of, let's say, 5% do? Granted, 20+ % are bad (and inconvenient, too), but what's bad about low-level inflation?

Because it slowly takes money and redistributes it from wage earners and pensioners to bankers and investors, at least when the new money is introduced into the economy in the way it is these days. The methods of obtaining price inflation also have unintended consequences, specifically resource misallocation.
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mainiac

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #4520 on: April 04, 2014, 11:54:03 am »

The idea of inflation resulting in investment while deflation results in hoarding instead of investment is a bit of a fallacy, but that's a big rabbit hole that I'm going to avoid right now.

I know I am ignoring my own advice.  But...

GreatJustice apparently is onto something that eluded Fisher, Keynes, Hayek, Samuelson, Friedman...

Quick man, elaborate on this!  You could have a nobel prize!  Think of it, the man who debunked Fisher's work and all post classical economics.  It turns out that everybody left, right, libertarian and communist were wrong!  In fact this work is so revolutionary I'm pretty sure they'll revoke the nobel prizes of everyone else and give them to you!

Hopefuolly you can follow it up by taking on that silly Newton and his laws of motion.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2014, 11:56:03 am by mainiac »
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.

kaijyuu

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #4521 on: April 04, 2014, 12:03:47 pm »

Just popping in to note that Newton's laws of motion are technically incorrect. They're wonderful for macro scale physics due to being good enough approximations by several orders of magnitude, though.
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For, in order that men should resist injustice, something more is necessary than that they should think injustice unpleasant. They must think injustice absurd; above all, they must think it startling. They must retain the violence of a virgin astonishment. When the pessimist looks at any infamy, it is to him, after all, only a repetition of the infamy of existence. But the optimist sees injustice as something discordant and unexpected, and it stings him into action.

Digital Hellhound

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #4522 on: April 04, 2014, 12:06:41 pm »

mainiac, you're making yourself the least intelligent participant in this discussion with your constant snide comments and idiocy. I don't see GreatJustice acting like a five-year-old. I won't pretend to know shit about economics, but you sure as hell aren't making civil conversation.
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TD1

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #4523 on: April 04, 2014, 12:09:08 pm »

To be honest, what you just said wasn't really all that civil either...
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mainiac

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #4524 on: April 04, 2014, 12:09:52 pm »

Just popping in to note that Newton's laws of motion are technically incorrect. They're wonderful for macro scale physics due to being good enough approximations by several orders of magnitude, though.

Yes and the association between inflation and investment is technically incorrect in a very similar way to Newton's Three Laws.  It's all about the scale of wrongness.
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Ancient Babylonian god of RAEG
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"Don't tell me what you value. Show me your budget and I will tell you what you value"
« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.

Digital Hellhound

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #4525 on: April 04, 2014, 12:13:07 pm »

To be honest, what you just said wasn't really all that civil either...

You're absolutely right. Well, what's a bit of hypocrisy between friends, eh?
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Russia is simply taking an anti-Fascist stance against European Nazi products, they should be applauded. ¡No parmesan!

kaijyuu

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #4526 on: April 04, 2014, 12:29:01 pm »

It's all about the scale of wrongness.
* kaijyuu steals that link for later.
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Quote from: Chesterton
For, in order that men should resist injustice, something more is necessary than that they should think injustice unpleasant. They must think injustice absurd; above all, they must think it startling. They must retain the violence of a virgin astonishment. When the pessimist looks at any infamy, it is to him, after all, only a repetition of the infamy of existence. But the optimist sees injustice as something discordant and unexpected, and it stings him into action.

mainiac

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #4527 on: April 04, 2014, 12:30:44 pm »

* kaijyuu steals that link for later.

It should really be mandatory reading for the entire world, IMHO.
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.

kaijyuu

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #4528 on: April 04, 2014, 12:33:11 pm »

* kaijyuu nods in agreement.
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Quote from: Chesterton
For, in order that men should resist injustice, something more is necessary than that they should think injustice unpleasant. They must think injustice absurd; above all, they must think it startling. They must retain the violence of a virgin astonishment. When the pessimist looks at any infamy, it is to him, after all, only a repetition of the infamy of existence. But the optimist sees injustice as something discordant and unexpected, and it stings him into action.

GreatJustice

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Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« Reply #4529 on: April 04, 2014, 01:02:00 pm »

The idea of inflation resulting in investment while deflation results in hoarding instead of investment is a bit of a fallacy, but that's a big rabbit hole that I'm going to avoid right now.

I know I am ignoring my own advice.  But...

GreatJustice apparently is onto something that eluded Fisher, Keynes, Hayek, Samuelson, Friedman...

Quick man, elaborate on this!  You could have a nobel prize!  Think of it, the man who debunked Fisher's work and all post classical economics.  It turns out that everybody left, right, libertarian and communist were wrong!  In fact this work is so revolutionary I'm pretty sure they'll revoke the nobel prizes of everyone else and give them to you!

Hopefuolly you can follow it up by taking on that silly Newton and his laws of motion.

You actually think this is an idea I just made up? Pffffft. I'll just be lazy then and respond entirely with quotations.

Quote from: H.Hazlitt
When the stock of money is not increased, falling prices are a normal result of increased production and economic progress. They need not bring recession, because the falling prices are themselves the result of falling production costs.  Real profit margins are not reduced. Money wage-rates may not increase, but real wages will increase because the same money will buy more. Falling prices with continued or rising prosperity have occurred frequently in our history.

Quote from: M.Rothbard
Echoing Turgot, Say also counters the Malthus-Sismondi worry about the leaking out of savings from vital spendings, pointing out that savings do not remain unspent; they are simply spent on other productive (or reproductive) factors rather than consumption. Rather than injuring consumption, saving is invested and thereby increases future consumer spending. Historically, savings and consumption thereby grow together. And just as there is no necessary limit to production, so there is no limit to investment and the accumulation of capital. ‘A produce created was a vent opened for another produce, and this is true whether the value of it is spent’ on consumption or added to savings.

Oh, and since you mentioned Hayek, I'll toss a quote from him into the mix too (though it isn't directly concerned with deflation):

Quote from: F.A.Hayek
To combat the depression by a forced credit expansion  is to attempt to cure the evil by the very means which brought it about; because we are suffering from a misdirection of production, we want to create further misdirection…

I'm surprised you would include him with the likes of such great minds as
Quote from: Irving Fisher
Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months." <-About a week before the Great Depression
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The person supporting regenerating health, when asked why you can see when shot in the eye justified it as 'you put on an eyepatch'. When asked what happens when you are then shot in the other eye, he said that you put an eyepatch on that eye. When asked how you'd be able to see, he said that your first eye would have healed by then.

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