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[XXSockXX]

Yeah, the article didn't really mention any SNP response, just made it look like a big problem for them. It also mentioned possible economic problems and an OPEC report about shrinking oil production in the North Sea. I mentioned it before, the press here is pretty sceptic about the whole thing both due to a rather federalistic stance and having not really paid attention to it until rather recently. I think the first somewhat substantial reporting I read was in late autumn last year, at which point I was already much more well-informed thanks to this thread. 

[Owlbread]

To put this in perspective, the independence debate as a result of this pronouncement just moved up a notch into very serious business level and I'm reluctant to make any pronouncements about it because it's so serious. Osborne and Cameron have basically just made a move that will either break us or break them. Only the SNP's response and the next opinion polls will give us the answer as to where this is going to go.

There are two ways this can go, you see. The Tories are going to scare Scots out of voting for independence based on this hardball Dirty Harry bullshit, or they're going to turn Unionist supporters away with their blatant intimidation. I believe most people have a rough idea of what they're going to vote for anyway regardless of an issue as dry and tedious as the currency, but it's more the general hardball tactics the Unionists have been playing in the last week or two that's important.

They're basically trying to get Scotland to take on a share of the national debt, minimise the amount of assets we will receive and forcibly erect border controls to maintain two separate currency zones (unless the SNP start using the pound unofficially like Panama uses the dollar or something) contrary to the interests of the British public. Of course come the Yes vote and the negotiations that will follow they will see things very differently (the question is not "how do we stop Scotland from voting yes" but "what kind of Scotland do we want as a neighbour) but this entire debate has just become a game of very, very high stakes poker.

Regardless of what happens I can't see the Unionists coming out of this well. Even if Scotland votes No based on these tactics, a Union effectively founded on coercion is a Pyrrhic victory for Westminster. They've also potentially overplayed their hand when this would have worked much, much better if they'd suddenly introduced it a few weeks before the referendum or something. To introduce this now with 7 months to go is a bit silly. They've just completely dropped all of their spaghetti over a few successful polls, it remains to be seen what the effect will be though.

[XXSockXX]

Well, something like that was to be expected I guess. It was a high stakes game from the beginning, and with the vote coming closer that is only going to become more obvious. Cameron doesn't want to be the PM who lost Scotland. The SNP needs a viable economic concept to secure a Yes vote. This is going to need a lot of political and diplomatic skill on both sides, and Cameron is in a better position to apply pressure. It will be interesting to hear what the SNP can come up with in response. Securing the Yes vote is probably the bigger problem than finding arrangements in negotiations later, because with a No vote there won't be any negotiations.

I agree though that it won't help much long-term wise if it is perceived as coercion. Probably depends on how many other counter-arguments they will produce (like the shrinking oil reserve and businesses moving to London).

[Dutchling]

I'm wondering when the UK is going to block sites advocating Scottish independence.

[notquitethere]

Do you think they'll be an exodus to Scotland if they become independent? A lot of progressive types in England would like the political climate better. That said, you don't see a whole lot of people move to Wales just because you get free prescriptions and the living is cheaper: people mostly pick where they live due to work or studies or close ties to family and friends.

[Dutchling]

Scotland sounds like a cold and desolate place. If not for Owlbread, I wouldn't even be sure someone lived there.

[10ebbor10]

Scotland probably won't be joining the EU

[LordSlowpoke]

sounds like it's time to replace spain's membership with catalonia's vOv

[Guardian G.I.]

Scotland sounds like a cold and desolate place. If not for Owlbread, I wouldn't even be sure someone lived there.

There was also Robert Burns. We had to learn his poem "My Heart's in the Highlands" at school.

[scriver]

Yeah, but he was being literal. Burns was actually Wessex born-and-bred English, but when he was on a trip up north some Scottish thugs ambushed him, cut out his heart and buried it somewhere outside Inverness. Burns himself lived out the rest of his life with a cardiac steam engine attached to his chest.

[Sheb]

Scotland probably won't be joining the EU

That's the Telegraph being misleading. What Barroso is saying is that it's likely some member state will oppose Scotland joining the EU (and he only cite Spain). However, Rajoy did say he wouldn't block Scotland. Still, I expect this to go to court. The case that Scotland is not being created, but it just a successor state of the UK just like the rUK is strong.

[XXSockXX]

Yeah, as far as I understand, this is all just appeasement directed at Spain. There is still no official EU position, and the legal situation is not really clear, since it's unprecedented.
Depending on how a secession from or dissolution of the UK would look, the EU will have to figure out what to do then. Getting that far is the harder thing to do now, because the currency / economics issue are much more important problems.

[Sheb]

I think Cameron's handling of the UK-EU relationship is a great asset to Scotland here. He managed to piss off just about everyone with his talks of leaving or renegotiating to get even more goodies. The UK don't have many friends left anymore. I'm sure the whole of Eastern Europe will be sympathetic with Scotland due to their history of gaining independence from the Russians, so Scotland should have a majority of the EU on its side.

However, it is also possible that some members will decide to make Scotland join the EU again to get rid of the exceptions and rebates it currently enjoy as part of the UK.

[XXSockXX]

I'm sure they'd try to cut down on exceptions. I don't think they'd leave Scotland hanging outside the EU though, they are just trying to not encourage independece by making it look difficult. I guess many EU politicians are much more worried about Catalonia, because of Spain's economic problems. And yeah, Cameron hasn't exactly made a lot of friends in Brussels, so he can't count on that much support from there.

[Helgoland]

So Sebastian Edathy, a leading but not well-known SPD politician may or may not have possessed child pornography. When the police started investigating, he may or may not have been tipped off by members of the government. The minister of the interior Hans-Peter Friedrich has already stepped down.