Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

A

A

A

A

A

A

A

A

[USEC_OFFICER]

How can something so sexy be so full of logical fallacies and appeal to emotion?

Well, Steven Moffat is the head writer for Doctor Who now. _{I'll show myself out.}

[Owlbread]

How can something so sexy be so full of logical fallacies and appeal to emotion?

I have asked myself this question many times.

[Helgoland]

So I looked up polling data on Scottish independence on Wikipedia. It isn't looking good for our doughy friend - the 'no' option has a pretty consistent lead of about 20%.

[Owlbread]

I am posting this from my phone but I will do my best to contribute.

The situation is actually far closer to 30% in favour, 40% - 45% against. Not 20%. It's no secret that the Yes campaigners have been fighting an uphill battle for 3 years, if not longer. What has happened in recent months however has been quite reassuring. In December according to the latest YouGov poll support for independence went up by 1% for the first time in the campaign. Support for the Union however has been softening into don't-knows.

I was buoyed enormously by this because it was the first positive thing I'd heard on the polling front.

Within a month a different pollster produced these delightful results showing support for independence had risen by 5% from 32% to 37% while the no vote fell from 49% to 44%. Normally I don't link to that newspaper because it is very biased against independence but even they had to report the good news.

If polls next month also show a rise, and the month after that, the shift will be almost exactly the same as it was in 2011 when the SNP jumped from 30% to around 44% in the space of 5 months, winning the election.

If they don't show a rise, nor do they the month after, my heart will be in my throat and I'll have to consider the future carefully.

[Descan]

I'm betting a lot of those No's are knee-jerk reactions to the pollsters and they're not actually the people who would bother going out to vote. Whether that's enough to tip the scale is another thing.

[10ebbor10]

Well, it gets more interesting if you look at the 3 answers questions. Because then you get results like :

30% Independence, 32% further devolution, 29% status quo.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I'm betting a lot of those No's are knee-jerk reactions to the pollsters and they're not actually the people who would bother going out to vote. Whether that's enough to tip the scale is another thing.

So what we need is a poll that has the options of "Yes, Independence", "No, Union", and "No, Fuck Off".

[Sergarr]

You can roll a d3 instead of making polls you know.

[10ebbor10]

I'm betting a lot of those No's are knee-jerk reactions to the pollsters and they're not actually the people who would bother going out to vote. Whether that's enough to tip the scale is another thing.

So what we need is a poll that has the options of "Yes, Independence", "No, Union", and "No, Fuck Off".

Well, that would help. After all, IIRC, the referendum isn't mandatory, so a whole lot will be decide by whom can convince people the most to vote. The pro-Unionist rely partly on those who prefer the status quo, and getting those to vote can be troubling.

[Owlbread]

Exactly.  It's that very notion that keeps me going. It can take quite a lot to get people out to actually vote No.

[Descan]

I think you ought to focus more energy on the "This is a vote to separate from the U.K. This is not a vote for the SNP to run that separated country, that comes later."

Because I'm sure you have been, but I STILL see people going "I don't want a SNP run Scotland, so I'm voting for No."

[Dutchling]

Just wait 'till we drain the oceans.
The Netherlands shall conquer all. No more independent Scotland.

Enjoy it while it'll last though.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I'm wondering since a timeline I read had them breaking away in a black swan event (hilariously resulting in a UK intact other than losing England), what's the state of the English Nationalists? I mean, BNP are fascist and the English Democrats just want a parliament, are there really any?

I think you ought to focus more energy on the "This is a vote to separate from the U.K. This is not a vote for the SNP to run that separated country, that comes later."

Because I'm sure you have been, but I STILL see people going "I don't want a SNP run Scotland, so I'm voting for No."

It's kind of silly, since an independent Scotland would probably see SNP either being relegated to the major left wing party or collapsed entirely. If you hate SNP you should most definitely be voting Yes.

[Descan]

HYPOTHETICALLY:

If Doggerland were to resurface, who would be able to claim it and colonize?

[MetalSlimeHunt]

HYPOTHETICALLY:

If Doggerland were to resurface, who would be able to claim it and colonize?

America, obviously. I think that's fair payment for preventing the rise of New Netherlands plus 237 years of interest.