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Derick the Swordmaster of Doom

Gregor the Tanky Stab-Sentinel

[Sirus]

Derick's odds are actually worse. Arvis has Fortune, which means no crits. Using the inaccurate Killing Edge won't provide any real benefit.

NINJA'D

[Culise]

Ah, whoops.  OK, then it's impossible for Derick to kill Arvis in a single exchange.  That makes the maths easy. ^_^

[Blade Master Model 42]

Ah, whoops.  OK, then it's impossible for Derick to kill Arvis in a single exchange.  That makes the maths easy. ^_^

Whoa, it does? Weak. Did you factor in Derick's Cancel though?

Using the inaccurate Killing Edge won't provide any real benefit.

Not so- It has higher damage than his other weapons. Moot point though, apparently.

[CrimsonEon]

[PREVIOUS POST REDACTED]
Scratch everything I just said. I need to read your post better.

EDIT: Okay, I see the difference. You're forgetting one of Derick's Personal Skills that I factored in. One that increases his STR by 2 when within 3 spaces of an ally. Effectively increasing his damage to Arvis to 21, enough to take him down from 40 health.

Derick can Double Arvis for (assuming within 3 spaces of allied unit)
-17 DAM@95%Hit(Iron Sword)
-19 DAM@85%Hit(Shamsir)
-21 DAM@80%Hit(Killing Edge)
(Luck prevailing, Derick could kill him alone)

[Culise]

Scratch everything I just said. I need to read your post better.

EDIT: Okay, I see the difference. You're forgetting one of Derick's Personal Skills that I factored in. One that increases his STR by 2 when within 3 spaces of an ally.

Derick can Double Arvis for (assuming within 3 spaces of allied unit)
-17 DAM@95%Hit(Iron Sword)
-19 DAM@85%Hit(Shamsir)
-21 DAM@80%Hit(Killing Edge)
(Luck prevailing, Derick could kill him alone)

Ah, whoops.  I always forget those; that puts him barely over the margin when using the Killing Edge.  Let's see now, including Cancel and Riven's Charisma (+10 HIT/EVA)...

1. Hit first shot: 72%
2. Avoid counterblow: 24% + (76%*48%) = 60.5%
3. Hit second shot: 72%

31.3% shot at hitting both on the money.  39.5% shot at getting shot.  It's a little better. 

[CrimsonEon]

Also note that my idea was to have Seyena heal Derick, bringing him to 19 health. Arvis deals 17 with a regular hit, so a non-crit shot won't kill Derick, allowing a second swing. Don't know if you have that factored in there.

[Culise]

I don't, but that boosts it to just over 51%, not counting the chance at a crit by Arvis.  Actually, give a tic...hmmm, my maths are off somewhere. 

[Sirus]

This is all kinda a moot point though, as Zako has requested that we try to save Edwin. I mean, I guess there's nothing stopping Derick from canceling his order to attack after Seyena heals him or whatever, but if it fails then we've basically tossed one of the team under the wagon wheels.

[CrimsonEon]

This is all kinda a moot point though, as Zako has requested that we try to save Edwin. I mean, I guess there's nothing stopping Derick from canceling his order to attack after Seyena heals him or whatever, but if it fails then we've basically tossed one of the team under the wagon wheels.

I know, but it doesn't hurt to see just how good/bad our chances were. Some people like me just hate not investigating the road not taken in certain situations

[Blade Master Model 42]

Academic studies of potential actions in Fire Emblem is almost as fun as actually doing them anyway.

[Culise]

Indeed.  Plus, I could really use the practice with the basics of statistics, and I'm not exactly contributing much to the battle right now. ^_^ OK, I figured out where I went wrong.

1. Hit first shot: 72%
2. Avoid counterblow: 24% + (76%*48%) + (76%*52% * 73%) = 89.3%
3. Hit second shot: 72%

Chance of knocking-out Arvis: 46.3%.  Chance of getting knocked-out by Arvis: 10.7%.  Risky...putting Edwin's life on the flip of a coin would have been safer, but we'll see how it works next turn. 

[Praefectus Screptum]

You know the rolling luck isn't helping us this chapter, so it would be a really risky shot. Do I need to remind you Valor was hit all the times? So yeah, better not risk.

[Haspen]

Paladin D had to miss in worst possible moment :C

[IronyOwl]

So.

Now what?

[freeformschooler]

Haaaaspen my counter should be 2/3 not 1/3 since it was 3/3 last turn because I was healed right before the enemy phase