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Bay12 Presidential Focus Polling 2016

Ted Cruz
- 7 (6.5%)
Rick Santorum
- 16 (14.8%)
Michelle Bachmann
- 13 (12%)
Chris Christie
- 23 (21.3%)
Rand Paul
- 49 (45.4%)

Total Members Voted: 107


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Author Topic: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party  (Read 821116 times)

GlyphGryph

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Re: Le Megathread de FJ du Politique Améri-Canadiain Deux: Éh?
« Reply #4920 on: December 18, 2013, 08:09:46 pm »

The last two episodes of Extra Credits has done a really good job of actually talking about political reform that would actually help and actually matter. I'd reccomend at least checking it out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xa-vQ0L77LY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mu5QZmPG8zk

It won't happen, of course, but at least someone is actually talking about things that are legitimately important instead of endless conversations about abolishing the electoral college and other pointless activities as if it will actually improve anything.
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misko27

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Re: Le Megathread de FJ du Politique Améri-Canadiain Deux: Éh?
« Reply #4921 on: December 18, 2013, 09:23:28 pm »

So some news:

Apparently we (the public) missed something big back on Dec 5th near the South China Sea: US and Chinese military boats nearly collided. Obama, finally able to do something with Bipartisan support, is thumbing his nose at Putin and Putin's Olympics with gay athletes and gay celebrities. A diplomatic incident between the US and India has occurred: A female Indian diplomat, who brought a housekeeper with her, is accused of lying about her what she was paying her housekeeper in her visa, at $563 dollars a month instead of the promised $4,500. A strip-search the diplomat was put through while in custody has enraged India, causing much diplomatic backlash there. Kerry has since apologized.

And they passed a budget god damn it! No deadlines, no shutdown, no cliff, no drama. We are clear for a budget for two years now. Now, if only we could raise the debt ceiling before late February-Early March rolls around. Of course, if they don't, Republicans lose all their Obamacare credit, so there will be a ton of pressure to raise, and if they cause a problem anyway, they get thrashed politically. Win-win.
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mainiac

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Re: Le Megathread de FJ du Politique Améri-Canadiain Deux: Éh?
« Reply #4922 on: December 18, 2013, 09:35:11 pm »

And they passed a budget god damn it! No deadlines, no shutdown, no cliff, no drama. We are clear for a budget for two years now. Now, if only we could raise the debt ceiling before late February-Early March rolls around. Of course, if they don't, Republicans lose all their Obamacare credit, so there will be a ton of pressure to raise, and if they cause a problem anyway, they get thrashed politically. Win-win.

Don't get too excited.  They passed a budget by giving up all their hopes of passing a good budget and accepted passing a horrible budget that accepted a bunch of stupid stuff as the law of the land and gave up on fixing it.  It's not that they fixed stuff, it's that they gave up.
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"Don't tell me what you value. Show me your budget and I will tell you what you value"
« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.

misko27

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Re: Le Megathread de FJ du Politique Améri-Canadiain Deux: Éh?
« Reply #4923 on: December 18, 2013, 09:45:07 pm »

And they passed a budget god damn it! No deadlines, no shutdown, no cliff, no drama. We are clear for a budget for two years now. Now, if only we could raise the debt ceiling before late February-Early March rolls around. Of course, if they don't, Republicans lose all their Obamacare credit, so there will be a ton of pressure to raise, and if they cause a problem anyway, they get thrashed politically. Win-win.

Don't get too excited.  They passed a budget by giving up all their hopes of passing a good budget and accepted passing a horrible budget that accepted a bunch of stupid stuff as the law of the land and gave up on fixing it.  It's not that they fixed stuff, it's that they gave up.
Not even remotely concerned about this. A policy is better then none, and none was a very serious possibility for a while there. This budget is already empowering the Republican establishment to stand up to their right flank.

The US has been kicking the can down the road since it's foundation, I am just glad we are approaching the norm.
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mainiac

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Re: Le Megathread de FJ du Politique Améri-Canadiain Deux: Éh?
« Reply #4924 on: December 18, 2013, 10:11:34 pm »

]Not even remotely concerned about this. A policy is better then none, and none was a very serious possibility for a while there. This budget is already empowering the Republican establishment to stand up to their right flank.

The US has been kicking the can down the road since it's foundation, I am just glad we are approaching the norm.

No, we've just started kicking an even bigger can.  This is a far worse budget than we passed in the previous years.  Even more stuff is on autopilot and getting fixed by bureaucratic cludge because congress isn't distributing funds sanely.  It's technically a "budget" while the previous ones were "continuing resolutions" but it actually accomplishes less.

This isn't us returning to the norm.  This is us softly landing on rock bottom.  There is very, very little room left for a budget to be any worse at this point.

Imagine that you are splitting a pizza with someone and argue bitterly about how to split it.  Next week you get another pizza and have the same argument.  This goes on for a month until finally you both just give up and throw the uneaten pizza in the garbage.  Is that progress?
« Last Edit: December 18, 2013, 10:16:31 pm by mainiac »
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Ancient Babylonian god of RAEG
--------------
[CAN_INTERNET]
[PREFSTRING:google]
"Don't tell me what you value. Show me your budget and I will tell you what you value"
« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.

Lagslayer

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Re: Le Megathread de FJ du Politique Améri-Canadiain Deux: Éh?
« Reply #4925 on: December 19, 2013, 12:38:13 am »

The last two episodes of Extra Credits has done a really good job of actually talking about political reform that would actually help and actually matter. I'd reccomend at least checking it out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xa-vQ0L77LY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mu5QZmPG8zk

It won't happen, of course, but at least someone is actually talking about things that are legitimately important instead of endless conversations about abolishing the electoral college and other pointless activities as if it will actually improve anything.
I love Extra Credits. I love the perspective it brings to the table. That being said, I don't think these things would change much. They make most of their money in ventures unrelated to their position of power. The lawmakers have so much legalese and bureaucracy to hide behind that nobody is going to be able to call them out on exploiting loopholes or abusing the "spirit of the law", however that happens to be interpreted at that moment. Though, I'd argue they are more like speech-givers, because they have teams of lawyers actually write the laws for them, despite most of them having law degrees themselves, which has a lot of very dire implications on several levels. But that's a rant for another time.

FearfulJesuit

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Re: Le Megathread de FJ du Politique Améri-Canadiain Deux: Éh?
« Reply #4926 on: December 19, 2013, 12:53:11 am »

Max Baucus, pro-gun Dem Senator from Montana who will not run for election this November, will be the next ambassador to China.

Dem victory in 2014 (particularly for the prez, although also for the House and Senate, probably) is going to be about the economy.

Yeah, we should go after inequality. I kind of wonder what would happen if the Dems started compromising on their social stances and started pushing their economic ones, rather than the reverse, which they've been doing since Clinton. Would your average rural white voter be tempted to vote D if that D wanted to raise the minimum wage, put (sane) restrictions on abortion, and quieted down about gay marriage? He might.

McConnell pushes for another fight over the debt ceiling in mid-February.



Also, Paul Ryan will likely not do the presidential rounds again.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2013, 01:00:54 am by FearfulJesuit »
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@Footjob, you can microwave most grains I've tried pretty easily through the microwave, even if they aren't packaged for it.

misko27

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Re: Le Megathread de FJ du Politique Améri-Canadiain Deux: Éh?
« Reply #4927 on: December 19, 2013, 01:36:09 am »

The last two episodes of Extra Credits has done a really good job of actually talking about political reform that would actually help and actually matter. I'd reccomend at least checking it out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xa-vQ0L77LY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mu5QZmPG8zk

It won't happen, of course, but at least someone is actually talking about things that are legitimately important instead of endless conversations about abolishing the electoral college and other pointless activities as if it will actually improve anything.
I love Extra Credits. I love the perspective it brings to the table. That being said, I don't think these things would change much. They make most of their money in ventures unrelated to their position of power. The lawmakers have so much legalese and bureaucracy to hide behind that nobody is going to be able to call them out on exploiting loopholes or abusing the "spirit of the law", however that happens to be interpreted at that moment. Though, I'd argue they are more like speech-givers, because they have teams of lawyers actually write the laws for them, despite most of them having law degrees themselves, which has a lot of very dire implications on several levels. But that's a rant for another time.
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Guardian G.I.

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Re: Le Megathread de FJ du Politique Améri-Canadiain Deux: Éh?
« Reply #4928 on: December 19, 2013, 02:56:22 am »

Obama, finally able to do something with Bipartisan support, is thumbing his nose at Putin and Putin's Olympics with gay athletes and gay celebrities.
From what I've heard, the day when the 2014 Winter Olympics begins (the 7th of February) is also the deadline for the US Congress to raise the debt ceiling and prevent a default. Obama has to stay in the United States on official business, and the reports that he won't come to Sochi in protest of the Russia gay propaganda ban are untrue.
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GlyphGryph

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Re: Le Megathread de FJ du Politique Améri-Canadiain Deux: Éh?
« Reply #4930 on: December 19, 2013, 09:02:23 am »

I love Extra Credits. I love the perspective it brings to the table. That being said, I don't think these things would change much. They make most of their money in ventures unrelated to their position of power. The lawmakers have so much legalese and bureaucracy to hide behind that nobody is going to be able to call them out on exploiting loopholes or abusing the "spirit of the law", however that happens to be interpreted at that moment. Though, I'd argue they are more like speech-givers, because they have teams of lawyers actually write the laws for them, despite most of them having law degrees themselves, which has a lot of very dire implications on several levels. But that's a rant for another time.

To me, the important thing isn't that this would be the solution, it's that it is actually thinking in terms of "what would leave us better off?", something most people who argue for political change don't bother thinking about at all. They are thinking about (and talking about) incentives - the natural behaviour that arises from the way the system is designed - and how to change them to create a government that serves as a more effective democracy.

And this WOULD change the incentives. Yes, most politicians get more of their money from non-political ventures - but now they know that if they get elected, that will never be true again (since cash outside their very, very generous pensions earns them nothing). Even if they join for the power anyway, it changes the incentives they operate under while in office.

I... also don't understand any of your complaints. Yes, they can exploit loopholes. But that is completely different from having a system that is explicitly designed to reward said exploitation. The psychology of the environment changes completely.
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Lagslayer

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Re: Le Megathread de FJ du Politique Améri-Canadiain Deux: Éh?
« Reply #4931 on: December 19, 2013, 10:39:53 am »

snip
Legalese only helps up to the point where people can still understand it. If you need teams of lawyers to decipher a legal document, there's a serious problem. It means you are at the mercy of people that can hire these teams of lawyers to tell you what it means, and these are the people that can abuse it most easily. That's the whole reason that they have teams of lawyers in the first place. And now we've gotten to the point that the politicians don't even know what's in the bills they are voting on. To quote Nancy Pelosi, on the Health Care Bill: "We have to pass the bill to find out what's in it".

That's the point I was trying to make. "The spirit of the law" rhetoric is bullshit because there is no real record of it.

I never claimed this was a simple problem or that there was a simple solution. But I do have a few ideas that I believe would nudge it in the right direction. Radically simplify the law on all fronts, and leave more discretion up the the judiciary. Normal people can't understand thousands upon thousands of pages of legalese, but they can understand the decisions and actions of a relative few judges. And without all that legalese to hide behind, normal people can call out bullshit without wondering if it's technically legal bullshit. Bad judges can be removed, and bad people can be more easily identified. Of course, this relies on people actually paying attention, but you need that for any democratic system to work, anyways.


I... also don't understand any of your complaints. Yes, they can exploit loopholes. But that is completely different from having a system that is explicitly designed to reward said exploitation. The psychology of the environment changes completely.
The politicians are the ones that designed the system that way in the first place. Then they got re-elected anyways.

Baffler

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Well, simple laws are also easy to exploit, though the finagling isn't quite so stratified.
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Lagslayer

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Well, simple laws are also easy to exploit, though the finagling isn't quite so stratified.
The idea/hope is that the increased transparency would make it easier for public opinion to sway the decisions. That, and making laws more increasingly complex leads to increasing diminishing returns on it's effect.

Though, I suppose it's sort of experimental system. Usually it runs the other way, to more complex laws and less discretion, while this would roll that back.

misko27

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I want to post in detail, but for now I have one thing to post and one thing to respond to.
Obama, finally able to do something with Bipartisan support, is thumbing his nose at Putin and Putin's Olympics with gay athletes and gay celebrities.
From what I've heard, the day when the 2014 Winter Olympics begins (the 7th of February) is also the deadline for the US Congress to raise the debt ceiling and prevent a default. Obama has to stay in the United States on official business, and the reports that he won't come to Sochi in protest of the Russia gay propaganda ban are untrue.
While the debt ceiling was in fact suspended until that date, the debt ceiling itself won't be passed (because debt ceilings are weird.) until late February to early march, as Jack Lew of the Treasury Department has confirmed.


On a related note, New Mexico has just become the 17th state to legalize Gay Marriage.
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