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[Montague]

Am I stupid or something? I don't know why this isn't very simple.

You have 3 doors, with 2 goats and a car behind them.

The guy opens a door with a goat. You know that door is a goat door. Great.

two unopened doors, one with a car, one with a goat. 50/50 chance at getting a car if you pick any other door besides the one that was previously revealed to have a goat behind it. 100% chance of getting a goat or a car for free.

[Reelya]

You're missing the point.

You picked a door first, then the host revealed a losing prize. The goat is a placeholder for the booby prize, if that wasn't obvious. Getting the car is the "goal". Maybe i should have made the 2 doors hold a plate with a steaming turd on it for you slow types?

Afterwards, the host offers to let you swap your picked door.

Should you swap and why?

And can you maximize your chances of getting the good prize?

[Soadreqm]

two unopened doors, one with a car, one with a goat. 50/50 chance at getting a car if you pick any other door besides the one that was previously revealed to have a goat behind it. 100% chance of getting a goat or a car for free.

Ah, but if you paid attention on round 1 of door-opening, you'll also have picked a door that the guy was not allowed to open. The host makes his door-opening choice from a pool of TWO doors, and chances are two out of three that one of them was the car. And since the host just opened a goat door, you now know which one.

[Reelya]

Yep, it means a smart player had a 2/3 chance of winning, much better than 50/50

[Montague]

You're missing the point.

You picked a door first, then the host revealed a losing prize. The goat is a placeholder for the booby prize, if that wasn't obvious. Getting the car is the "goal". Maybe i should have made the 2 doors hold a plate with a steaming turd on it for you slow types?

Afterwards, the host offers to let you swap your picked door.

Should you swap and why?

And can you maximize your chances of getting the good prize?

So... you won a goat. The contest is over? Or you get a second pick, to pick either the goat you've already one, or one of two doors, which have a car and another goat behind them?

So... pick another door? You might get a car, or another goat?

[Reelya]

What are you talking about? ranting now? I clearly explained the rules in the very first post.

And I clearly explained why accepting the "swap" is the optimal choice.

It's a simple example of reading comprehension, probabilities and logic.

It's based on a REAL game-show's final stage:

- there are 3 doors. The host tells you to pick one. obviously you do not open it right away.
- the host opens another  door with a "booby prize"
- the host asks you whether you want to stick with your door or select the other unopened door.

After you make your final decision, THEN you get one prize.

what would you do?

[Lectorog]

By the way, if you win the car, you can use it to steal others' goats, or sell it and buy more than one goat. The car will always be preferable to a goat.

[Reelya]

Ok montagues officially too retarded to even grasp the structure of the Monty Hall Paradox, let alone cogitate on solutions. I tried 6 times to explain the set-up and he still is getting it wrong and calling me a liar about the answer.