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[Toady One]

I've warned G-Flex for jumping in and causing trouble, and I've banned the sockpuppet account.

[G-Flex]

I didn't actually expect anyone to post it (and nobody I know is owning up to it), because I figured that was a terrible idea, but fair enough.

[Scoops Novel]

Questions from the youth: towards the end of 2013, and 2015, what do you think will have changed, technologically and event wise?

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Questions from the youth: towards the end of 2013, and 2015, what do you think will have changed, technologically and event wise?

From 2012-2015:

-Growth of the autonomous car industry after its success in Nevada, putting pressure on other states DMV's to start licensing them.

-Electric car recharging stations appear in every medium to large U.S. city. The electric, electric-gasoline, and electric-diesel car market enters the mainstream and grows rapidly as gasoline grows ever more expensive. The oil industry is unhappy.

-Augmented Reality becomes a widespread feature of smartphones and first-generation AR glasses.

-Non-smartphone phone market almost dead.

-Puerto Rico, having voted by referendum to petition for statehood, but only just barely, is at some point from 2012-2015 accepted by Congress as the 51st state. The US has to change the flag again.

-Iran faces greater internal strife from directed U.S. sanctions against its economy. Iranian reformists become more desperate for change as Iranian fundamentalists become equally desperate to keep the West out. The possibility of violence looms.

-The GOP loses massive amounts of power as its far-right party leaders alienate moderates and center-right conservatives with their reactionary ideals. Obama coordinates the Democrats to a majority in both houses of Congress. Justices Scalia, Ginsburg, and Kennedy retire.

-Egypt is nearing the end of a civil war due to the military's unwillingness to give up power to a civilian government. NATO does not intervene and the rebels are crushed. Tunisia is a functioning democracy that has embraced Western values into law in order to improve its tourist industry, not because the politicians actually believe in it. Lybia and Syria are hybrid regimes where Sharia is present but not an absolute source of law, and even so fails to reach the level of fundamentalist held by Saudi Arabia and the Taliban. Both nations hold a unprecedented fondness for Western nations due to their assistance in their revolutions. Anti-west opinions are still powerful, but the issue has entered into the realm of something debatable. In Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah dies from old age and is replaced by the next in line.

-China's next generation of politicians reach the breaking point of their progression into the government, and the tone of Chinese autocracy changes. Things are still bad, but the new government is willing to implement reforms that the previous one was not.

-Relations between the US and Pakistan have completely soured as their competing interests diverge too wildly. Conversely, relations between the US and India warm significantly due to having a mutual rival in Pakistan.

-The US still hasn't pulled out of Afghanistan.

-The price and efficiency of solar power becomes very valuable to the market. Germany has replaced 50% of its power production with renewable energy sources. Nuclear fission the world over stagnates. The ITER project for nuclear fusion continues to be constructed in southern France.

[10ebbor10]

Well you're an optimist. I got some pesimistic things to add.

2013-2014: Global Mobile internet crash: Smartphone networks start to reach their capacity, and crash. Mobile communication becomes problematic, and unlimited mobile internet acces becomes a thing of the past.

2015: Copper shortages begin to threathen advances into green power, as the increasing costs to maintain and expand networks makes the large scale solar power projects a financial impossibility. Instead, nations switch back to fossil fuels, mostly coal, or cling to their nuclear power plants.

Note: That 50% windpower seems extremely optimistic. I mean, It's more optimistic than the governement numbers, who are only going for 35% till 2020

Somewhere between 2012-2020:

Complete economical failure of the US, caused by another debt crisis, unemployement and a lack of rules in the financial departement. Really, the situation in the US doesn't look good.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

2013-2014: Global Mobile internet crash: Smartphone networks start to reach their capacity, and crash. Mobile communication becomes problematic, and unlimited mobile internet acces becomes a thing of the past.

You crazy. The networks will grow further.

2015: Copper shortages begin to threathen advances into green power, as the increasing costs to maintain and expand networks makes the large scale solar power projects a financial impossibility. Instead, nations switch back to fossil fuels, mostly coal, or cling to their nuclear power plants.

From an economic standpoint, this makes no sense. Fossil fuels are going to be more trouble than they are worth by 2015. We can recycle or replace copper, it is not as if it is the only conductive material.

Note: That 50% windpower seems extremely optimistic. I mean, It's more optimistic than the governement numbers, who are only going for 35% till 2020

My mistake, I meant 50% renewable energy as a whole. Too early in the morning to remember my figures correctly.

[RedKing]

I don't know if I see Puerto Rico ever becoming a US state. The majority still oppose statehood by about a 60/40 margin. And if it looked like it was going to happen, I have no doubt there'd be a groundswell of anti-Hispanic fervor on the Right opposing it as well.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I don't know if I see Puerto Rico ever becoming a US state. The majority still oppose statehood by about a 60/40 margin

Uh, no they don't. It hasn't been 60/40 for almost half a century, and last time, in 1998, it just barely avoided getting a majority for statehood.

And if it looked like it was going to happen, I have no doubt there'd be a groundswell of anti-Hispanic fervor on the Right opposing it as well.

The official Republican Party platforms for both 2004 and 2008 support Puerto Rican statehood. I'm not going to say that their isn't some anti-Hispanic fervor on the right, but Puerto Rico has been a territory of the US for a long time. Expanding statehood, and by extension expanding the level of power held by the US, is a far more powerful political influence than hating Hispanics. Besides, Puerto Rico would be a GOP stronghold if it were in the Union.

[10ebbor10]

2013-2014: Global Mobile internet crash: Smartphone networks start to reach their capacity, and crash. Mobile communication becomes problematic, and unlimited mobile internet acces becomes a thing of the past.

You crazy. The networks will grow further.
Wireless networks can't grow, as there's something as a useable spectrum. Sure, they are switching to a new, more efficient encoding system, but it won't happen fast enough. Have a link from CNN: link

2015: Copper shortages begin to threathen advances into green power, as the increasing costs to maintain and expand networks makes the large scale solar power projects a financial impossibility. Instead, nations switch back to fossil fuels, mostly coal, or cling to their nuclear power plants.

From an economic standpoint, this makes no sense. Fossil fuels are going to be more trouble than they are worth by 2015. We can recycle or replace copper, it is not as if it is the only conductive material.
Not exactly. There's plenty of fossil fuels left, and the peak isn't expected to happen for at least 10-15 years. Also, coal is and will be cheap, due to the enormous deposits left. In fact, at the moment of speaking, Germany is constructing coal plants for 10% of their energy production, in order to replace nuclear power. Copper deposits, are expected to run out in 2016. Sure, recycling may help. And switching to other conducters may help too, but I'm afraid it won't be economical.

Note: That 50% windpower seems extremely optimistic. I mean, It's more optimistic than the governement numbers, who are only going for 35% till 2020

My mistake, I meant 50% renewable energy as a whole. Too early in the morning to remember my figures correctly.Even then. The governement numbers say 35% of complete energy production to be green in 2020.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Wireless networks can't grow, as there's something as a useable spectrum. Sure, they are switching to a new, more efficient encoding system, but it won't happen fast enough. Have a link from CNN: link

You can't definitively claim that it won't happen fast enough. The wireless providers are utterly dependent upon there being usable spectrum. Necessity is the mother of invention, after all, and this is an existential necessity for these companies. They'll find something.

Not exactly. There's plenty of fossil fuels left, and the peak isn't expected to happen for at least 10-15 years. Also, coal is and will be cheap, due to the enormous deposits left. In fact, at the moment of speaking, Germany is constructing coal plants for 10% of their energy production, in order to replace nuclear power. Copper deposits, are expected to run out in 2016. Sure, recycling may help. And switching to other conducters may help too, but I'm afraid it won't be economical.

When peak is going to happen depends upon whom you are asking. I've heard 2150, 2100, 2070, 2050, 2040, 2035, 2025, 2020, 2015, and 2005 all thrown out as peak dates. Given that last one, there is an entire group of estimates that suggests we are already past peak. Coal is cheap but environmentally costly, and developing nations will pay more for coal exports than the developed nations would get by using them themselves.

Other conductors not being economical once copper is critically shorted is ridiculous. That isn't how an economy works. If a conductor is needed, and the old conductor isn't available anymore, then replacement conductors will become economical. We need conductors in the modern world. People will pay for non-copper conductors if they have to.

Even then. The governement numbers say 35% of complete energy production to be green in 2020.

We'll see. Total renewables in Germany was 6% or so in 2000, now its 25%. This suggests the start of an exponential curve.

[10ebbor10]

1. They've been working on said system since the invention of the previous one. It's a problem of infrastructure (current gen phone doesn't work with new gen network), progamming and some other things. You can't just replace all mobile installations.

2. Note that peak oil also doesn't factor in the useage of unconventional oil sources, amongst others. Fossil fuels ain't going to have any serious troubles till 2020- 2030.  Also, the current coal production and useage can easilu scale up to meet the demand.

But will people pay twice or more the price for a windpowered plant, than for a cheaper alternative? Windmills and other green powers use much more conducters than concentrated power production, like coal or nuclear power.

3. Actually it doesn't. With green power, the most productive and cheapest sites get build on first, and then the lesser options are expanded. Those 17% are the easy renewables, and now they have to expand and use what remains. I'm for one more likely to believe the governement numbers, rather than something that's made up with no factual evidence...

[MetalSlimeHunt]

But will people pay twice or more the price for a windpowered plant, than for a cheaper alternative? Windmills and other green powers use much more conducters than concentrated power production, like coal or nuclear power

They will if they're paying through subsidies.

[Criptfeind]

Piff. You guy are too optimistic. Cultural war with the death of billions by late 2013 for sure.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Piff. You guy are too optimistic. Cultural war with the death of billions by late 2013 for sure.

If only they had voted for Ron Paul.

[RedKing]

I don't know if I see Puerto Rico ever becoming a US state. The majority still oppose statehood by about a 60/40 margin

Uh, no they don't. It hasn't been 60/40 for almost half a century, and last time, in 1998, it just barely avoided getting a majority for statehood.

O RLY? (or should I say żO RLMENTE?)

And if it looked like it was going to happen, I have no doubt there'd be a groundswell of anti-Hispanic fervor on the Right opposing it as well.

The official Republican Party platforms for both 2004 and 2008 support Puerto Rican statehood. I'm not going to say that their isn't some anti-Hispanic fervor on the right, but Puerto Rico has been a territory of the US for a long time. Expanding statehood, and by extension expanding the level of power held by the US, is a far more powerful political influence than hating Hispanics. Besides, Puerto Rico would be a GOP stronghold if it were in the Union.

Possibly. But given the way the GOP seems to have abandoned the Hispanic outreach efforts (other than South Florida cubanos), I'm not optimistic.