And the Chinese as the only ones to reach Mars? Are you kidding me? Not NASA, not ESA, not RFSA, but CNSA? Amongst the major national space programs, I'd put China in last place. They may have done an independent manned launch, but that doesn't mean they're better. Space needs to be a cooperative venture, and CNSA is not very cooperative compared to the others. Not to mention their total mission count is fairly low.
Not the only ones. Just the only real contenders amongst the major space programs. The CNSA is fairly cooperative, with several missions done jointly with both the ESA and the RFSA. The major thing is that they're one of the few places where the space program still has massive political support.
NASA has suffered severe funding cuts, but they're not out of the game by any means. Soon, when people start talking about walking on Mars in more than theoretical terms, they will have public support that will make the Apollo program look meager in comparison and cause politicians across the entire political spectrum to drool with envy at whomever holds the White House when it happens. At worst, NASA is going to get second place for walking on Mars.
There's no real enthousiasm for space exploration anymore, and I'm afraid this will not change in the future. There are several projects going on at the moment, and they don't get the support you'd expect. You're not getting that kind of support before the mission launches, or someone does a JFK speech. Political will has to come before the public opinion will change.
Speculating on permanent colonies is probably a bit too far in the future for accurate predictions.
Actually, a permant colony might happen sooner than land and return flight. It is cheaper if you don't plan for a return flight, after all.
My bet is on a NASA/ESA cooperative mission within 40 years. If the world as we know it hasn't collapsed by then.
The ESA is a bit wary of doing joint missions with NASA for the moment. Considering several of the last major co-op planned projects where cancelled due to budget issues with NASA, and because they're currently on a do it as we get the money approach. In fact, the ESA is cooperating more with the Roscosmos; and the CNSA/other new spaceprograms.
edit: Example. The Mars 500 project, aiming to simulate a flight to Mars, was a joint experiment between Roscosmos, the ESA and CHina.