Hapah:Alright, Bookthras, I got a chance to really read your post. I've got a few comments:
Short version: while many of your comments on NF/UI/Jack have merit, I believe most of the "general-strategy" stuff to be rather misguided. They don't seem to be made in bad faith, so I don't necessarily attach suspicion to them, but I answer them instead for future reference and clarification.
I'll address those first, and then we can review NF/UI/Jack.
I would like to state that I think a no-lynch Day 1, in this particular style of game, is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, I lean towards thinking a no-lynch D1 is good for the town. In a vanilla Mafia, information for the town is a very precious commodity: Investigative roles are normally few and far between, and the information gleaned from a mislynch usually outweighs the loss of a townie. Here, though, the rules are a little different: Everyone and their mother has powers. Doctor, Invest, Roleblock, anyone can be any of these things, and will (probably) be at least one of these every night for the majority of the game. [...] I don't think the loss of a probable town power role is worth the small amount of information gained.
Not so. Even in a game like this, or a role-heavy game like a BYOR, paranormal, or bastard, without a D1 lynch people will lack context for the conversation during the day, which is the very point of the day game. The information lost is not just the flip of a person, but who voted them, with what arguments, and forms the very foundation of how the town power roles will choose their night actions. Information is key, and
timely information is twice as important. People flipping at the start of D2 is not nearly as useful, and a nolynch will result in people using their powers on whoever they were voting (if block/investigate) or a crapshoot for protections and the like, due to lack of context and closure.
A D1 no-lynch, even in a game like this, pretty much wastes all of D1 content, and gives scum a chance to NK/convert/whatever while town has to shoot in the dark. The amount of information lost is not small, but most importantly, you lose the opportunity to use it. N1 will never come again. Even if you learn the information later, you'll never get that night back, which scum got for free. Not good for town at all.
Also considering the fact that the D1 lynchee is almost always town (when was the last time anyone saw a scum hang D1?),
Not that rare. The very last game I played (
Cybrid Mafia 3) we lynched scum D1. A couple games before that (Politibastard) as well, though that was a...
different sort of game. I'm sure there are several others.
So sure, it doesn't happen that often, but it certainly does happen. Plus the possibility of a mislynch is built into the balance of the game. If there is going to be one, it's best for town that it happens sooner rather than later, so maximum information is provided early. It's never
good, but a D1 no-lynch is
worse.
Out-of-character, and outside the context of this game, please disabuse yourself of the notion that a D1 no-lynch is good for town
ever. Except in very narrow types of games where constant (not just D1) no-lynch can be used to break the setup (which is not the case here), whenever you think a D1 no-lynch is good because it's cautious, it's misapplied caution, and will hurt town much more than a possible mislynch would.
But back to this game: You may not have known this, or you may disagree, but my point is that Native
does know it, has seen this argument numerous times and has agreed with it. It's not about whether a D1 no-lynch is good or bad, it's about showing that Native executed a move that
by his own standards as per other games he knows is anti-town.
Now, about his "lynch them both" line, I think he was in the right there (even if I was jumping at shadows before). If Shakerag is assumed town, then one of those two must be guilty. And I don't know about you, but if I've got the probability of scum at around 50/50, not lynching seems like a crime (I'm still surprised Urist or Tiruin didn't get the noose D2). If you lynch the wrong one first, then the other is almost certainly scum (again, assuming that Shakerag is town. I think he is.) In hindsight, his statements all seem reasonable to me, and the fact that he kept his vote on one of the two probable guilty parties instead of moving to MrD is actually a mark in his favor in my book.
Here again, I think you are misguided. The problem is not with the notion that one of those two is scum. The problem is with the notion of setting up the dichotomy, proposing to just lynch one and if it's the wrong one, "oh shucks, let's get the other one". It curtails discussion and scumhunting, and proposes people to be fine with a possible mislynch "because we'll make up for it next day". These sort of arguments are often proposed by scum to perhaps squeeze one more mislynch out of an inevitable bus (which is what I think Native was doing here).
It's good that people didn't follow it and looked for other scumminess elsewhere and found it (MrD, who was a good lynch). It would also have been good if they pressed Tiruin harder and managed to lynch him D2 based on that. It would not, however, have been good if they just "lynch one, and if they flip town, lynch the other". That is at best misguided, and at worse scummy, and town Native would have known better, I think.
As with everything else, it's not so much the argument he made as to
why he made it; reading the motivations behind the arguments, and putting the pieces together, he smells very strongly of scum to me.
And I just want to say that any reasoning along these lines seems very dangerous to me. Hell, look at Roguelike 3: There were FOUR scum (2 teams of 2) in a ten-man game. 3 scum and 1 3rd party doesn't seem out of the question to me.
Hmmm... true. I didn't play Roguelike3, so I didn't think of that. I guess the thrust of my point was a general caution that: a) there's more than Tiruin's scumbuddy out there, and b) just because someone can't be Tiruin's scumbuddy it doesn't necessarily mean they are town.
As for my reads on Urist and Jack? I don't know if it's just me, but it kinda looks like there's something going on there: Jack's Town ID on Urist N1 (he got randomized, I know. He could have done anything to anyone and claimed Town ID on Urist), Urist's protection of Jack N2 (and saving him from himself, of all things. The hell are the odds on that?)....I don't know. I feel like Urist is town for similar reasons that I think Shakerag is town, but it just feels like I'm missing something.
I'm with you here. Something seems off, but don't know exactly what. Hopefully once they weigh in and answer a few questions it will become clearer.
Shakerag:I think Jack and UI are both likely town, maybe moreso Jack.
Why? In detail: why Jack more than Imiknorris? Why "town" rather than "not Tiruin's scumbuddy"?
PPE: Imiknorris: noted. Reply later (busy now).
Author
Topic: Roguelike Mafia 4 - Haste makes waste. [Game over!] (Read 109284 times)