You are aware that the thread had long since expired?
A lot of what was written prior to the necro isn't relevant. For example, the return on the ore to bar ratios has drastically changed.
So yes, the new "ideal" embark profile would probably include:
1. Bituminous Coal. Each stone produces 9 coke bars. Repeat production consumes fuel, net gain = 8 fuel bars. To start production, a log from deconstructing your wagon can be burned to produce the first fuel bar.
2. 1:4 iron ore to flux stone ratio to maximize steel production.
3. 2 bars of steel can produce 2 giant axe blades, which when melted return 150% of their production materials due to a bug, meaning 2 bars are converted into 3 bars at a cost of 4 fuel.
Let's convert these costs into points value for comparison. Assume we want 100 steel bars as a goal.
Scenario 1: 2 bars of steel + bituminous coal
2 steel = 300 points
Fuel needed for axe blade cheat: 4 bars per 1 steel produced. 98 * 4 = 392 bars of fuel. 392 / 8 = 49
49 bituminous coal = 147 points
Total: 447 points
Scenario 2: 1 iron ore, 4 flux + bituminous coal
1 iron ore = 24 points
4 flux = 24 points
Fuel needed for ore smelting: 1 to smelt iron ore into 4 iron bars, 2 per pig iron, 2 per steel = 9 fuel for 4 bars of steel, or one full bituminous coal, plus a second log from your wagon turned to charcoal
Fuel needed for axe blade cheat: 4 bars per 1 steel produced = 96 *4 = 384 bars of fuel. 384 / 8 = 48
49 bituminous coal = 147 points
Total: 195 points
Ultimately, this means you have a choice. You can spend 44 points on a copper pick to start digging right away, or spend 100 points on an anvil plus additional spend on ore to delay your digging and await steel production. Assuming you're willing to sacrifice the first month of spring without significant digging, you can probably embark with the following:
1 iron anvil
50 bituminous coal
1 iron ore
4 flux stone
Total: 298 points
This has everything you need for 100 steel bars, minus the time required to create them. This assumes you're happy to exploit the game producing and melting axe blade trap components for extra steel. To purchase the iron ore and flux stone to produce the 100 bars without this exploit would cost 1200 points without any anvil or fuel.
Alternatively if you don't want steel, bismuth bronze costs 6 points per copper ore, 6 points for cassiterite and 3 points for bismuthinite, meaning a total of 16 bars of bismuth bronze for 21 points in ore cost, minus fuel of 1 bituminous coal, bringing the total to 24 points. This is 1.5 points per bar of bismuth bronze. 16 bars is a good start on your needs. 3 more points for another piece of bituminous coal and you have enough fuel to make 8 metal items, including picks. This, however, requires the 100 point anvil investment again.
Minimalist embarks are fun but a bit boring if you're going for a zero point challenge. I've done it before you could turn a log from your wagon into a training axe to chop more trees. I'd imagine a zero point embark would be impossible without a water source however. To guarantee survival, the bare minimum you'd need is a single 44 point copper pick. This is cheaper than bringing your own anvil, which you can get with the first caravan. On a map with wood and plants to harvest, embarking with seven peasants and no supplies is quite reasonable. Wagon gets deconstructed, one log to make carpenter's workshop, another log is turned into a training axe, this axe is used to cut more trees for building materials and you gather plants to farm above ground crops. Unfortunately you have no means of digging until the caravan arrives with your first pick.