Well, it may be that he had been used to be the one punching the punching bag the Japanese are after the first 30 days or so and expected a less intensive war. Him sighting the Ceylon invasion fleet, losing CVL Charlotte and yet another unescorted merchant to a submarine attack in the same day after what was probably(to him) most horrible and much worse than expected first 100 turns may have been enough. He could have gotten a hint on the large IJA force flanking him in Northern China as well. I dont hold high hopes. There is more than what I've told here and could be something I dont know about.
If this one doesn't progress any further I need to switch to a game where the full campaign isnt 1200+ turns... Perhaps single player or even Bay12 PvP? I could do an AAR of some kind, just play with Bay12 people(I sit alone in Bay12 TeamSpeak right now) or something else you guys would be interested in seeing. I dont want to stream, preferring written AARs with pictures and possibly short video clips in the future. Myself I'd be more or less interested in these games, in no particular order:
Battletech/MegaMek(preferably single games/scenarios and trying out different stuff, preferably PvP but non-competive(balanced or otherwise)
maybe Europa Universalis 4
Hearts of Iron III(or maybe not, it's too easy)
Il-2 Sturmovik
Shogun/Medieval: Total War
Age of Empires 2(actually I'm downloading the HD version atm)
World of Tanks
perhaps continue the Silent Hunter III Gray Wolves AAR where I ran out of patience
Heroes of Might and Magic III
Age of Wonders
Master of Orion II
Kerbal Space Program
Arma II series / Day Z