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[Thexor]

You hear so many complaints about "missed a 95% chance" because people assume 95% == 100%.

A 95% hit chance means, on average, 1-in-20 shots will miss. After firing roughly 13 shots at 95% hit chance, you have a 50% chance of missing one.

So, yeah. Don't count on anything less than a 100% shot. (And apparently, even a 100% attack has a veeeeery slim chance of failing, probably due to a less-than comparison instead of a less-than-or-equals comparison. So, don't count on anything.  )

[EnigmaticHat]

I've only ever seen a rocket scatter once, and at worse it was simply ineffective rather than contrary to my goals.

On release day, classic ironman, I lost the first VIP mission to a scattering rocket launcher hitting a crate directly in front of my heavy.

[LoSboccacc]

You hear so many complaints about "missed a 95% chance" because people assume 95% == 100%.

A 95% hit chance means, on average, 1-in-20 shots will miss. After firing roughly 13 shots at 95% hit chance, you have a 50% chance of missing one.

So, yeah. Don't count on anything less than a 100% shot. (And apparently, even a 100% attack has a veeeeery slim chance of failing, probably due to a less-than comparison instead of a less-than-or-equals comparison. So, don't count on anything.  )

Wait what? No! After you get twenty 95% shots right, you still have only 5% chance to miss.

[lordcooper]

Probability is hard m'kay.

[Pnx]

The tricky thing to remember is that if something has already happened then it's 100% certain. So if you roll two sixes in a row, it doesn't make you less likely to roll a third six, even if rolling three sixes in a row is unlikely.

[MaximumZero]

Finally beat the game. On Normal, with Ironman mode on (without me dying.)

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Finished off the mutons with a casualty via Berserker: "Voodoo" Garcia, my female support, one of 3 medi-soldiers I brought along. The berserker rushed into my Close Quarters after killing her, and was mowed down by a face full of critical Alloy Cannon. Most of the other Mutons in the room fell to reaction fire from the rest of the squad. The five soldiers left, including Volunteer Caden "Romeo" O'Caroll, breach the doorway to the final room. My brother, nickamed "Lockdown", sat back behind the doorway with a clear shot into the middle of the room. As the lead Ethereal spoke, he drew a bead on it. The first shot connected true for 15 damage, and it was time for a Double Tap. The Muton Elites in the room never even got to move.

That little bastard always upstages me.

[GlyphGryph]

Except that he said "There is a 50% chance of one of those shots missing", not the next one.

So the correction is silly.

[LoSboccacc]

I see after, not those
But you may be right about the intended meaning. Apologies.

[GlyphGryph]

"after... of missing one" Meaning that after you've 13 shots, there will be a 50% chance of a miss in that "set". I'm not really seeing how you're getting "next shot" from that.

[Kagus]

Regardless, while I would normally be in agreement with the dickery of statistics in that a 99% shot is by no means guaranteed, the sheer number of "two 98%/88% shots" or "four 75% shots" missing seems a bit unusually high...  With huge numbers of instances I could understand, but this is just one small piece of Bay12 we're getting reports from here.  That and a couple 100% misses makes me think that there's probably something just a mee bizarre about this game's hit calculations.

Also, why does this LPer not listen to me when I'm shouting at his recorded videos?  It makes no sense.

[GlyphGryph]

Well, apparently, the only "funky stuff" going on there is the game cheating to make such occurrences /less/ likely, by secretly favoring the player when the dice are rolled.

There could be a bug as well, but honestly we'd have to do some proper statistical analysis first.

[Parsely]

I want to play this with a crowd of Bay12'ers watching that will run my every move through the wringer. I probably wouldn't even get past the first month.

[Cthulhu]

There's no bugs.  Yes, everybody has stories of missing two 85s in a row, but nobody talks to you about the dozens and dozens of 85s that hit just fine.

And I'm aware that the human brain, more adept at seeing patterns than evaluating probability, tends to assume that 90%=100 and that any kind of trend is a conspiracy, but that should go into account when they're deciding game mechanics.  This is Game Funology 101.  With gunshots, I'm always aware of the chance to miss, because it's something regular.  A flat 90% chance on something with no modifiers is something you're so used to succeeding that it's not even taken into account.  I know my guns will miss and I have contingencies for if it happens.  I don't even think about the miss chance for rockets because they almost never do, and when they actually do it's infuriating because of that.

Furthermore there's options to minimize your risk when you shoot.  You can blow up cover (except oops your rocket missed), you can flank, all of that.  Rockets, nope.  No matter what, when you pull out that launcher you have a 10% chance of getting fucked over.

So, like I said before:  Make the hit/miss mechanics of rockets more meaningful, or make it 100% hit chance.

[Aqizzar]

There's no bugs.  Yes, everybody has stories of missing two 85s in a row, but nobody talks to you about the dozens and dozens of 85s that hit just fine.

I think one thing that can count as a bug is when you're on the same axis as a target standing against a wall, and count as "in cover" even though the target is definitely not in cover.  How many times have you tried to flank a Sectoid and seen this happen:

Code: [Select]

   W
  sWWW

  xWWW
   W

Where you can pretty much pick either one as which, and they count as covered and so even at two steps away with no visible obstructions have like a 57% chance to hit.  Obviously that's a bug you can see in action though, but it's still fucked up.

[Anvilfolk]

I never get THAT annoyed at rockets missing.

See, the first rocket I ever fired was in a UFO landing mission. There was mostly low cover, with most of my guys stacked up neatly behind this fallen tree trunk, with lots of sectoids over yonder. The situation's getting hairy, so I decide that now's the time to try out that rocket to wipe out half the sectoids. I tell my heavy, who is actually behind full cover just behind the rest of the team, to fire the rocket.

What happens? Well, of course my elite heavy soldier had never fired a rocket launcher, so he proceeds to fire in the general direction of his penis. Instantly taking out the fallen tree cover and injuring/killing the rest of the squad and himself.

Then my turn ended.


So yeah, I'm OK with my rockets hitting a wall next to the Mutton they were supposed to hit every now and then.