I don't think we're gonna see a bunch of Texan seats picked up by the Democrats in 2014, because the state's gerrymandered to heck. Though maybe not- the current delegation is 12 Democrats, 24 Republicans.
2016, though...See, the thing is, the Republicans have been very, very lucky. The combination of a recession, looking like you have all the answers even when you are talking out of your ass, and a not insignificant amount of bloody-minded racism, fundamentalism and vitriol in the base has bought them some time. Had there been no recession, and had the Democrats nominated a white guy in '08, they would be further into the hole they've currently dug themselves into. As it is, they're currently profiting from a combination of factors that are making the Democrats look terrible- it's just that the Republicans look terrible by comparison. If Texas becomes a swing state in 2016- and that won't happen without a number of other states becoming swing states, too- Arizona, probably, and maybe Georgia or Tennessee (though I wouldn't put my hopes on Georgia too highly. Despite Atlanta, it was one of just seven or eight states where had the election been decided just by 18-29 year-olds in '08, McCain would have won, which I found surprising. (For the record, those states didn't include Alabama, Mississippi, or Texas)). It may take a while for the other current Republican strongholds to go, but when that happens it'll start to happen all at once. If the Republicans don't clean up their act now, they'll be facing landslide after landslide for the Democrats in the White House, at least. I could see them winning 2016 if they picked Huntsman or maybe Christie and unemployment was still high. But I think the unemployment picture is going to improve- slowly, to be sure, but I wouldn't be surprised if it were around 5% in 2016- and winning the House has afforded them the opportunity not to pay attention to the demographics. Gerrymandering can buy you a lot of time, and even if they lose the House in 2014 without getting the Senate, two years is just not enough time for the party bigwigs to decide "You know, let's take a few baby steps to remaining relevant and cut down on the rhetoric on, say, birth control and immigration this election..." What the Republicans got this year and last year, plus their majority in the nation's state legislatures (allowing them to gerrymander as they please), has masked what's really going on. And that's too bad- by the time they wake up and smell the Kool-Aid, it may be too late.
I'd really like to see the Republicans go back to being the party of the Rotary Club sorts of people who built it-in other words, actually promoting small business over corporations, not being overly interventionist in international affairs, and just generally being rational conservatives who simply want to make sure that any change that happens is change that's truly needed and that the country can handle- and who don't think that extends to people's private lives. Do you know how thrilled I'd be in 2016 to be able to vote for a resurrected version of Eisenhower or Rockefeller? Hell, even Gerald Ford would have a shot at my vote. But it's not gonna happen. 2020 may not be quite enough time, either.
In 2022 and 2024, however, I suspect that discontentment with the Republicans will grow enough that a majority of the nation's state legislatures are filled with Democrats, and when the census calls for redistricting, that will make its presence felt. In other words, the Republicans are screwed. But it'll take at least eight years for that to be obvious.