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[Kon]

Does anyone else think that Romney shot himself in the foot (or maybe the face) with his recent attack on Jeep? Even the Detroit newspaper article endorsing him (which he crows endlessly about in his ads) roundly smashed his policy on the auto industry, and Chrysler itself called the claims idiotic. When something like 30%-40% of jobs in Ohio are linked to the auto industry (rough average estimate, it's around 75% in the northern cities, and less further south) that's a very nasty gaffe to make, especially since the main group he would be targeting  (independent voters who can understand the value of the industry) isn't going to automatically favor either side, while the secondary target (union autoworkers uncomfortable with the political affiliations of the union) are going to favor the existing policy under which they kept their jobs unless solid evidence is presented to them. The only group that might be inclined to believe the attack would be those that lost their jobs in the restructuring, most of whom were simply retired early.

He didn't have a chance in Michigan to begin with. The west is absolutely Republican, but the east is more populous... and filled to the brim with union workers, minorities, and every other stereotypically Democratic demographic you can imagine.

I actually live in a very liberal postage stamp in the middle of a very conservative county... you can imagine how the city leaders feel about never getting a voice in higher-up politics.

It's Ohio that I'm talking about. He's been blitzing the state with his "Obama's selling Jeep to China" campaign for the past week.  Between the actual car companies, the parts suppliers for those companies, and various material refining and coal mining, this state is just as dependent on the auto industry as Michigan is.

It's unlikely that Obama will win Ohio.

[GlyphGryph]

Most polls seem to put them on par or give Obama a slight advantage - why do you think it's unlikely? I mean, it's certainly possible that he'll lose - it's all within the margin of error. But saying it's likely he'll lose is a bit different.

[Jervill]

Really, Kon?  If you make an assertion, at least attempt to back it up.  Hell, you would have to assume numerous polling companies all have a D-bias for that to be true.
Latest polls: (Used FiveThirtyEight history for the list)
Ipsos (Online) 11/2 Obama+2
We Ask America (R) 11/1 Obama+4
CNN 11/1 Obama+3
Rasmussen 11/1 Obama+0
Wenzel Strategies 10/31 (R) Romney+3
University of Cincy 10/30 Obama+2
PPP 10/30 Obama+5
SurveyUSA 10/29 Obama+3
Grove 10/29 Obama+3
Quinnipiac 10/29 Obama+5

Average last 10 polls: Obama+2.4

Even including the two R-affiliated pollsters, they don't even bring the POTUS's average down that much.

[GlyphGryph]

That's a wee bit needlessly aggressive, Jervill. I'm much more interested in his reasoning than in seeing him shouted down. :/

[Flying Dice]

Since his reasoning in the past has boiled down to "because I said so", I for one am not particularly interested in another 6-page stretch of him trolling everyone willing to keep responding.

[Bauglir]

Wait, you can't pass a motion just because it's seconded. We have to have a vote first!

[kaijyuu]

I'll step in and filibuster that.

[darkrider2]

I'm voting however my party tells me to vote. cough cough cough.

[darkflagrance]

This is why democracy is broken. Metagaming!

Also 3 days left until the polls and I won't vote due to voter registration laws unless a miracle happens. Still, being on a university campus, it's unlikely my vote would have mattered anyway.

[FearfulJesuit]

This is why democracy is broken. Metagaming!

Also 3 days left until the polls and I won't vote due to voter registration laws unless a miracle happens. Still, being on a university campus, it's unlikely my vote would have mattered anyway.

What state?

[Kon]

That's a wee bit needlessly aggressive, Jervill. I'm much more interested in his reasoning than in seeing him shouted down. :/

Last time I posted on this thread, several people insulted me, and I responded with a couple of insults. I shouldn't have done that. I am being insulted again now, just for pointing out that Romney is going to win Ohio, but I will not respond to insults with insults this time.

Anyway, Ohio elected a Republican governor. Obviously, that was a state-wide vote, and this will be a statewide vote.

Ohio's economy is doing well relative to other Midwest states. Unemplyment is significantly lower there than in nearby states, such as Illinois, that have Democratic governors who have raised taxes and hurt their states economies. You could argue that it is in Obama's favor that Ohio's economy is doing relatively well, but Ohioans may see that they are doing better with a Republican governor than others are doing with a Democratic governor.

The polls are very close, but undecided voters tend to go against the incumbent president.

Republicans seem to be more enthusiastic than Democrats. I expect that Republican turnout will be better than Democratic turnout.

Early voting is not going nearly as well for Obama as it did four years ago. Based on the polls, on election day Romney is likely to more than make up for Obama's slim lead in early voting. This is based on election day voting last time, the greater enthusiam for Romney versus McCain, and the greater enthusiasm for Romney versus Obama.

Finally, Romney has been talking about working with Democrats, pointing out that he worked with Democrats as governor, while Obama isn't even talking about working with Republicans. Many people want politicians to set aside partisanship and do what is best for the country.

And, as we saw in the last debate, Obama's plan is simply to attack Romney, which turns off a lot of independents. I think people in Ohio are really getting fed up with all of the personal attacks. They want someone who is going to work with the other side to get something done rather than insulting and denigrating their opponent. Obama's game plan is to convince people not to vote for Romney rather than trying to convince people that they should for him. That plan is a poor plan and won't work.

[FearfulJesuit]

Gingrich Advert People: Beware Three-Term Obama

[Kon]

Since his reasoning in the past has boiled down to "because I said so", I for one am not particularly interested in another 6-page stretch of him trolling everyone willing to keep responding.

My reasoning in the past has boiled down to "because I said so?" I provided thoughtful arguments while others just insulted me.

[Toady One]

I don't imagine this thread is going to see much less activity from now through Tuesday, so I'd appreciate it if people would be extra cautious with their tone.

[darkflagrance]

This is why democracy is broken. Metagaming!

Also 3 days left until the polls and I won't vote due to voter registration laws unless a miracle happens. Still, being on a university campus, it's unlikely my vote would have mattered anyway.

What state?

Massachusetts.