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[Urist Imiknorris]

All signs except the data point to Romney winning.

[palsch]

Michigan's average on RCP (Obama +3.8) seems to be skewed by Baydoun/Foster (D) reporting Romney +4, while every other polling company says Obama +5/6.  They did seem to have the biggest sample, but as it links to Fox News I'm not trusting it.

So if you add Michigan's 16 places back on that gives Obama 237.  Which would leave him in the position of win Florida plus any other swing state to win.

If that's the same Baydoun/Foster that Nate talks about here then there have been noted irregularities in their polls already. Their Florida poll had the demographics all over the place.

But once in a great while, a poll comes along with methodology that is so implausible that it deserves some further comment. The Foster McCollum White Baydoun poll of Florida is one such survey.

The poll was weighted to a demographic estimate that predicts that just 2 percent of Florida voters will be 30 or younger. It’s a decent bet that turnout will be down some among younger voters this year, but that isn’t a realistic estimate. In 2008, according to exit polls, 15 percent of voters in Florida were between 18 and 30.

The poll also assumed that 10 percent of voters will be between the ages of 31 and 50. In 2008, the actual percentage was 36 percent, according to the exit survey.

The poll projected Latinos to be 7 percent of the turnout in Florida, against 14 percent in 2008. And it has African-American turnout at 10 percent, down from 13 percent.

If the turnout numbers look something like that in November, then Mr. Obama will lose Florida badly. He’ll also lose almost every other state; his electoral map might look a lot like Walter Mondale’s.

The Michigan poll shows up in Nate's numbers. His average is +3.1 (47.1/44.0), but his adjusted average is +5.0 (48.0/43.0). Given his straight average is usually more mathematically reliable than RCP (whose polling averages are utterly shit for multiple reasons) I'd say the RCP average is actually generously biased towards Obama even with the strange poll. On the other hand, Nate's adjusted averages have earned my trust for their predictive powers. I'd say the polling does show the lead fairly narrow but that realistically it's still a 5 point race and expected to inflate out to 7% by the election.

[mainiac]

I wouldn't count on Florida going to Obama.  There's a much more reliable route to 270 if he just nabs Ohio and Virginia:  http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=tgf

[Lord Shonus]

Exactly. Obama doesn't need Florida. But if he carries Florida, he's virtually guaranteed to win. That said, Ohio might be the harder of the two states for him to carry, depending on who believes the latest coal hysteria.

[Kogan Loloklam]

I'd think Virginia would be more Coalish than Ohio. Ohio's got some large cities that aren't all owned by coal. Virginia? Not so easy I'd say.


On  a totally unrelated note, Mayor Stubbs has never to my knowledge claimed that Forcable rape that leads to pregnancy is consentual. He's only a mayor and already more tactful than a senator hopeful. It's time to pick the right cat for the job.

[Jervill]

Ohio also has the auto industry, which should make it more friendly to Obama.

[mainiac]

I'd be very surprised if coal make much of an impact on this race in any of the swing states.  If you look at the polls though, Obama has consistantly lead in Ohio while Florida has been pretty mixed.  Seeing as there hasn't been any evidence yet of the Ryan VP pick hurting Romney with older voters that demographic gives Romney a good shot in Florida.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html#polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html#polls

[Lord Shonus]

The latest coal scare isn't just about mining. According to Romney, new "Typical Obama" regulations on coal will cause electricity prices to skyrocket. According to independent analysis, the new regulations will have negligible financial impact, and date back to Bush-era legislation.

[mainiac]

Okay but I still don't see how that will have a big impact.

[mainiac]

Akin calls for this charade to end:

St. Louis, MO: The following statement was released by Perry Akin, Campaign Manager for Todd Akin for Senate, in response to the Rasmussen poll released this morning:

“The fact that Claire McCaskill is only polling at 48% after 72 hours of constant negative attacks on Todd Akin shows just how weak she is. If she can’t break fifty percent after a week like this, Democrats should ask Claire to step down. Todd is in this race to win; we will close this gap and win in November with the support of the grassroots in Missouri and across America.”

[RedKing]

Akin calls for this charade to end:

St. Louis, MO: The following statement was released by Perry Akin, Campaign Manager for Todd Akin for Senate, in response to the Rasmussen poll released this morning:

“The fact that Claire McCaskill is only polling at 48% after 72 hours of constant negative attacks on Todd Akin shows just how weak she is. If she can’t break fifty percent after a week like this, Democrats should ask Claire to step down. Todd is in this race to win; we will close this gap and win in November with the support of the grassroots in Missouri and across America.”

That's pretty ballsy. In effect, they said, "Wow! Because I'm such a dickbag, the fact you're only beating me by TEN percentage points means you're bad and you should feel bad!" Talk about spin.

[mainiac]

Sadly the fact that you rejected it shows this probably wasn't a legitimate silver lining.

[palsch]

St. Louis, MO: The following statement was released by Perry Akin, Campaign Manager for Todd Akin for Senate, in response to the Rasmussen poll released this morning:

Notice something about his campaign manager's name? That's Todd's son. And Todd Akin's wife serves as his other top advisor.

This is fairly common in local politics up to around the State House level. Once you get to the national stage it's pretty much a terrible idea. Most House races involve professional campaign teams. For a Senate race to be run by family members is a sure sign of absurdity.

At least one of the Republican calls for him to resign used this point, saying he operates in, "an insular environment," and, "lives in a parallel universe."

As for McCaskill's polling, I'd be shocked if she got more than that 48% given that only a few days ago she had a 53% disapproval rate. If both those numbers are accurate then she is already getting supporters who previously actively disliked the job she is doing. It does look like Akin's remarks have galvanised Democratic support behind her while shaking his Republican supporters. Given that there is a Libertarian candidate running there is a strong chance he will lose some of those supporters for good.


And looking back at Nate Silver, this is a good reminder of why us polling geeks love him.

[RedKing]

St. Louis, MO: The following statement was released by Perry Akin, Campaign Manager for Todd Akin for Senate, in response to the Rasmussen poll released this morning:

Notice something about his campaign manager's name? That's Todd's son. And Todd Akin's wife serves as his other top advisor.

This is fairly common in local politics up to around the State House level. Once you get to the national stage it's pretty much a terrible idea. Most House races involve professional campaign teams. For a Senate race to be run by family members is a sure sign of absurdity.

"How am I doing in the polls? Should I bow out?"
"Well...."
"Let me remind you that I haven't given you your allowance yet this week."
"You're doing great, Dad!"

[SalmonGod]

I have about 20 pages to catch up on.  It's going to take me a while.  So in the meantime, I don't know if this has been posted here yet, but it's worth mention if not.

About 40% of the investments that launched Bain Capital came from families who were prominent in the organization of death squads in El Salvador in the 80s.

So Romney seems to go beyond exemplifying your generally sleazy politician.  He's also fat on blood money.