Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[10ebbor10]

I suspect it would be even more certain if we would just get rid of the electoral college already. Obama got 43% of the vote in Texas last election, and yet McCain got all the electoral points.

Yup, first past the post is a terrible system. It's worse in the UK though, were you have small communities that have depopulated, but their worth in the election hasn't been adjusted. Leads to such strange situations were a man and his dog have more influence on the elections than a small community.

((Really, Al Gore would have won the elections were it not for this system.))

[RedKing]

I suspect it would be even more certain if we would just get rid of the electoral college already. Obama got 43% of the vote in Texas last election, and yet McCain got all the electoral points.

California and New York. 'Nuff said.
McCain had more votes in California (4,554,643) than he had in Texas (4,467,748).
Obama also got all the electoral college votes in a number of tight states, including Florida, Virginia and North Carolina (where he won by less than 15,000 votes). Not saying I'm a defender of the electoral college, just that it goes both ways. Obama still would have won handily by popular vote.

[palsch]

Yup, first past the post is a terrible system. It's worse in the UK though, were you have small communities that have depopulated, but their worth in the election hasn't been adjusted. Leads to such strange situations were a man and his dog have more influence on the elections than a small community.

Not supporting to the FPTP system (AV campaigner here remember), but the rotten boroughs haven't been a reality since the 19th century. Today the smallest constituency has some 21,000+ votes and 60% turnout. And is marginal (think swing, last changing from Labour to SNP in 2005).

They did make for one of the best episodes of Blackadder that was actually used in one of my civics-style lessons, but thankfully that's their only contribution to modern politics.

I'd also separate the electoral college and FPTP as issues. I have less of a problem with FPTP given the electoral and federal systems in the US (and my doubt that another system would genuinely change much within those bounds). And the electoral college is a thick knot to try to cut through.

[Lord Shonus]

Romeny's supporters may have just shot his campaign in the foot. Based on what my Rupublican uncle has been reposting on FB (from the Tea Party page), the Tea Party is starting to bring gun control to the front of their push. Romney's record is significantly more pro-gun control than Obama's is. This is a swing-issue, meaning that a non-trivial amount of the voter base (especially in the more critical battleground states, such as Ohio) has it as a top priority. If the Tea Party pushes that in advertisements, and Obama has the insight to jump on it, that could cost Romney a great deal.

[Urist Imiknorris]

Romeny's supporters may have just shot his campaign in the foot.

I love when that happens.

[darkrider2]

Hey remember when the Tea Partiers were kind of a new thing and were sort of an independent group? Then the Republicans started taking over and running candidates under the guise of being Tea Party candidates?

Yeah its exactly this kind of stuff that makes me giggle inside.

[mainiac]

With the latest poll projections it looks like Obama is going to win. Even if he loses in all 4 marginally blue states, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado that would still give him 271 electoral votes.

Edit: I seem to have missed New Hampshire;s 4 votes. If he lost all 5 marginally blue states, he could lose.

Florida, Virginia and Colorado are all states where Obama's lead is smaller then his national level lead.  In Florida and Virginia he won by a smaller percentage then he did nationally and in Colorado is was barely more then he did nationally.  This is despite having by all accounts a vastly better ground operation in all three states then McCain did.  It would certainly not be accurate to describe Florida as marginally blue, they are marginally red but Obama is leading there because he's leading overall.  It would be a stretch to describe Virginia and Colorado as marginally blue at this time.  They are headed in the direction of becoming blue states demographically but at the national level they are still bellweather states that don't lean towards either party.  Remember that before 2008 Colorado hadn't gone blue since 1992 and Virginia hadn't gone blue since 1964!

But it is true that if Obama can maintain his lead in the democratically leaning states of Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa and Wisconsin he will win.  Which shows that the electoral college setup right now actually favors the democrats.  A theoretical "tie" election where the nation splits exactly 50-50 and every state votes it's partisan leanings would go to the democrats by around 281-257.  This is assuming Colorado and Virginia are just barely republican leaning this election but probably going to switch to barely blue by 2014 or 2016.  I'm all for electoral college reform but if there's a repeat of 2000 it's more likely to be the democrats that stand to benefit this year.

[Karlito]

The National Popular Vote Compact is slowly gaining ground so it's possible that we'll see the end of the current electoral college three or four presidential elections down the road.

[Nadaka]

The reason I call them marginally blue is that he is currently polling slightly above romney and is more likely to win than lose at the moment. The odds that he loses ALL such states is slim.

[mainiac]

The reason I call them marginally blue is that he is currently polling slightly above romney and is more likely to win than lose at the moment. The odds that he loses ALL such states is slim.

It would be slim if the states all moved independently but that isn't how it works.  Plenty of factors affect all the states at once.  If the economy goes into a downturn/upswing or there is a major scandal it won't just affect Virginia or Colorado, it will affect every state in the union.  On August 9th 2004 John Kerry had a lead about as big as Obama has now.  He lead in the swing states just like Obama leads now.  He lost all those swing states and it wasn't a fluke, the national mood just moved in Bush's direction and took all the swing states with them.

The race so far has been remarkably steady compared to previous races.  Usually the numbers bounce around a lot more then they have this year.  But that doesn't mean that this steadiness is guaranteed to continue.  In fact it's sort of a fluke that this election has had so few major events.  This fluke might continue but it's very possible that it doesn't and all the swing states could move at once.

[Reelya]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/08/mitt-romney-death-squads-bain_n_1710133.html

Hmmm turns out that 40% of Romney's seed capital to create Bain came from El Salavador's death squad oligarchs during the dark times of the early 1980's.

Romney's key Salvadorean backers were supporters of the death squad which assassinated the Arch-Bishop of El Salvador in 1980, the links were already public knowledge for several years before Romney accepted their money.

[RedKing]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/08/mitt-romney-death-squads-bain_n_1710133.html

Hmmm turns out that 40% of Romney's seed capital to create Bain came from El Salavador's death squad oligarchs during the dark times of the early 1980's.

Romney's key Salvadorean backers were supporters of the death squad which assassinated the Arch-Bishop of El Salvador in 1980, the links were already public knowledge for several years before Romney accepted their money.

Won't have much of an effect, even if corroborated. Most Americans inclined to vote Romney don't give a flying fuck about some brown people's civil war 30 years ago. And he lost the Hispanic vote long, long ago. (Well, other than the Cubanos).

[Aqizzar]

I have to wonder though, was Bain Capital founded on the principle of looking as much as possible like a liberal parody of a hedge fund?  I'm sure the vast majority of their business was completely legit, but the stuff that raises red flags is just so ridiculously red-flagy.

[Descan]

It's obvious. Romney is so OBVIOUSLY evil that he's actually a plant, designed to make people flock to Obama!


Vote for Romney! Don't let the Man win!

[RedKing]

It's obvious. Romney is so OBVIOUSLY evil that he's actually a plant, designed to make people flock to Obama!


Vote for Romney! Don't let the Man win!

Apparently at one point, WorldNetDaily (the right-wing equivalent of....okay, there really is no equivalent. Time Cube, maybe?) posited that Donald Trump was a White House agent with a mission to discredit the birther movement by gaining their trust and becoming the face of the movement and then going out and making himself look like an ass.

To which the correct response is: Looking like an ass is the Donald's natural state. No conspiracy required.
Likewise, looking like the kind of guy who would sell grandma's kidneys and then invest the money in a dialysis machine company seems to be Mitt's natural state.