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[kaijyuu]

It started when Japan started dominating the car industry, iirc.

[penguinofhonor]

Remember how back in the nineties all the economists were saying that Japan would be an unstoppable industrial powerhouse that would control the global economy like they say China will now, but then Japan's population started to collapse?

I don't remember that because I was three, but I read about it later. You, on the other hand, have no excuse.

Oh yeah, I remember that. Man, that was a silly prediction, wasn't it? I haven't thought about it for over a decade.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

By the way, just so I can get the jump on the economists again, China will also fail to become an unstoppable industrial powerhouse when the first waves of really old people start relying on Chinese state healthcare and from the social strife of the younger Chinese demanding greater rights. Said rights will have to be granted by the PRC eventually, the only question is how many provinces they lose, Soviet Union style, before they realize it. My money is actually not on Tibet going first, because the PRC has crushed rebellion there fairly effectively.

As for healthcare, if you think Medicare is a financial problem, you haven't seen anything yet. There will probably be more elderly Chinese on state healthcare in a few decades then there are people in any given U.S. state, and maybe even the U.S. as a whole someday. It helps that, given Chinese culture, the elderly are one of the few groups that probably can't be effectively marginalized by the government.

tl:dr China is going down, the only question is how far they'll fall.

[Zrk2]

I think the rising sun fear dates back to the 80s not 90s.

Yeah, there was that movie with Mr. McClane an' stuff.

[cainiao]

By the way, just so I can get the jump on the economists again, China will also fail to become an unstoppable industrial powerhouse when the first waves of really old people start relying on Chinese state healthcare and from the social strife of the younger Chinese demanding greater rights. Said rights will have to be granted by the PRC eventually, the only question is how many provinces they lose, Soviet Union style, before they realize it. My money is actually not on Tibet going first, because the PRC has crushed rebellion there fairly effectively.

As for healthcare, if you think Medicare is a financial problem, you haven't seen anything yet. There will probably be more elderly Chinese on state healthcare in a few decades then there are people in any given U.S. state, and maybe even the U.S. as a whole someday. It helps that, given Chinese culture, the elderly are one of the few groups that probably can't be effectively marginalized by the government.

tl:dr China is going down, the only question is how far they'll fall.

State healthcare only built up in recent years in China, most of the people still rely on their children rather than the government to cover their healthcare.

Aging would be a serious problem due to One Child policy, however the government have realize the problem and taking measures,lifting one child ban, shifting manufacture in to hinterland and pouring money into R&D.

[RedKing]

We were terrified of Japan?? I must have missed that part.

Remember how back in the nineties all the economists were saying that Japan would be an unstoppable industrial powerhouse that would control the global economy like they say China will now, but then Japan's population started to collapse?

I don't remember that because I was three, but I read about it later. You, on the other hand, have no excuse.

Right false prediction, wrong decade (most of the "OMG we're all gonna work for the Japanese" stuff was late 80's). Japan was already in stagflation by 1992.

With that in mind, China's economic planners are well aware of history and trying to discourage the kind of profligate spending that helped damage Japan's economy (like when Japanese investors bought ridiculously overpriced real estate, built rooftop golf courses in Yokohama, were buying luxury SUVs like they were candy, etc.) They can't control it 100%, but they can tamp down the biggest excesses.

I know you're a pessimist on China's future, MSH. Just like I'm a cautious optimist.

[mainiac]

While China has a bit of a demographic problem, people tend to make more of it then there is.  For instance it's much less severe then Japan and I don't think anyone expects Japan to head into civil disorder.  It's much less severe then Italy and people tend not to list that among Italy's top problems.  What's much more pressing for China is that they've already plucked the low hanging fruit of industrialization and globalization.  They're running out of low productivity farmers to shift into factories.  That means the rate of growth is going to slow.  But it also means that bargaining power of workers is going to rise and those rising wages will help solve many of their problems.  Civil strife is possible but mostly because they are an autocratic regime and that happens in autocratic regimes, not because they are in some dire situation.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I know you're a pessimist on China's future, MSH. Just like I'm a cautious optimist.

I'm a pessimist on the future of the PRC state. China as a nation, on the other hand, will see great improvements.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

Adorable, right? I know it's probably just to get good PR in the face of all his negative ad campaigning, but this is still ridiculously humble and a sign we still have a human as a president. Also, first instance I've seen of Obama saying 'dude.'

[Twi]

Also, first instance I've seen of Obama saying 'dude.'

[Zrk2]

Adorable, right? I know it's probably just to get good PR in the face of all his negative ad campaigning, but this is still ridiculously humble and a sign we still have a human as a president. Also, first instance I've seen of Obama saying 'dude.'

I think that's something of an overstatement.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

I think that's something of an overstatement.

Eh, think what you will, I don't really care. It's a good sign when your president doesn't think he's above such things.

[Euld]

So apparently Mitt Romney looks like someone.  Someone very... evil.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

In case someone doesn't know, Gul Dukat was pretty much the main villain of Star Trek: Deep Space Nine (in a way).  To quote one of the other characters on the show: "Some people wouldn't know reason even if it walked up and shook their hand.  You can count Gul Dukat as one of them."  He was the head of an invasion and enslavement of an entire planet, and later on a dark messiah threatening to bring the apocalypse on the same planet.  And somewhere in between, that planet's version of satan gave Gul Dukat special powers, and one of his first orders of business was to murder a pregnant woman and her unborn child "because she was in the way."

[PTTG??]

He's just keeping up with the Cardassians.

[Sirus]

He's just keeping up with the Cardassians.

You deserve this.