Polls, we got 'em!
NationalObama vs. Romney? Obama +4
Obama vs. Santorum? Obama +8
Obama vs. a small, cute puppy? TIE GAME.
AlabamaYesterday, poll had Santorum at +4, today's poll has Romney at +10?? That's a pretty big divergence, which makes me think a lot of people just haven't gotten around to making up their minds. Hopefully more data will come out over the weekend before next Tuesday. Unclear if Gingrich is eating into Santorum's base, or Alabamians are quite as asshat-crazy as I expected, or what.
New YorkRomney turf (+15), but Santorum is polling a surprising 23% to Romney's 38%. Romney is not a strong buy, which is a surprise given his essentially New England Republican motif.
CaliforniaYes, it's a long ways out. But Romney only has a 6-point lead on Santorum at this point (28-22). Santorum is actually tied for 2nd with "Undecided" (although this poll was taken before Super Tuesday, apparently). This is potentially huge down the road -- California is a BIG chunk of delegates, and it's winner-take-all. If Santorum were to take California and a sizeable chunk of Texas....he could cut deeply into Romney's lead.
It's Caucus Day tomorrow in Kansas (40 delegates) and in three island races (Guam, N. Marianas, Virgin Islands, 9 delegates each). No poll data available for any of those. My guess would be that Santorum edges Romney for Kansas, and Romney wins pretty easily in the islands (for one thing, much of the US territories in Polynesia have a sizeable Mormon population in them). Word is, if Romney wins the Virgin Islands Rush Limbaugh will start referring to them as the "Slutty Islands".