You are making some assumptions. For one thing, proportional states aren't necessarily going to be close contests. For instance Romney will probably build up more in Illinois then he loses in Louisiana.
And what makes you sure that Gingrich voters will coalesce behind Santorum or vice versa? I think there's an element of that but we already saw it. When Santorum looked weak Gingrich gained some but not enough to pass Romney. When Gingrich looked weak, Santorum gained some but not enough to pass Romney. Plenty of voters have told pollsters that Romney was their second choice.
I'm not saying that Romney can't lose. But he is the only guy who can win by running out the clock. Time is on his side. If he wins an outright majority on Super Tuesday, his opponents are going to have a hard time looking viable.
April might be a tough month for Romney but that's a long way into the future. Will his opponents be able to keep a campaign going for that long?
I guess it's the "outright majority" bit that I object to. Seems too arbitrary. If he gets 60-70% of the available delegates? Yeah, I'll concede the point. 51%? Not over by a long shot. I feel like the media are clamoring to inject drama into their analysis, to keep ratings high. If they all said, "Yeah, today could be interesting but likely nothing will be decided today" then people aren't going to tune in to watch the results as much. If they say, "Today is the Ultimate Showdown Steel Cage Death Match Faceoff!!" then people will tune in. Last week, everyone kept saying "Michigan is Romney's Gettysburg". Turned out to not be that big of a deal. Honestly, I think some of the "analysis" I've read didn't even realize that these races are proportional. They were written as though Romney could sweep in, claim 400 delegates and walk away with the thing. My own estimates have him increasing his lead by a mere 50-60 delegates, and almost all of that from the certain-to-be-challenged Virginia primary.
That said.....TUESDAY! TUESDAY! TUESDAY!! It's the All-Star National Republican Nominating Event of the Millenium!
See the biggest and baddest in rhetoric-crushing monster pols! MITTFOOT! NEWTZILLA!
And the book-burning, nitro-lubricated SLICK RICK!
Also see Grandpa Crazypants in the Gold Standard Express!
Admission is free to the public (not counting the millions of public dollars spent on this bullshit). BE THERE!
Now then.....you know what's coming next.
Can you say "new polls"? I knew you could.
National:
Stunning new tracking poll from Gallup shows Romney up +16 nationally. This might be the biggest argument in favor of the "Romney's going to win the whole thing" side, moreso than the arcane math. Romney's polling at 38%, which is the highest he's been (or that ANY single candidate has been at) since the whole race began. An NBC News poll shows Romney at a much more modest +6.
Two new "Obama vs. X" polls out and as usual, Obama just says "COME AT ME BROS" and beats everybody.
Ohio:
No less than five new polls out, and the results run from Romney +5 to Santorum +4, with the average being Romney by around 1%, which is well within margin of error for most polls. End result: Nobody's likely to know this one till it hits 100% reported tonight.
Tenneessee:
To quote Gomer Pyle, "Surprise! Surprise, Surprise!" This is now a
3-way race. Two new polls out:
WeAskAmerica: Romney 30, Santorum 29, Gingrich 29, Paul 12
PPP: Santorum 34, Romney 29, Gingrich 27
Don't ask me how Gingrich is making a
third comeback in the Southern states. I'd say dude sold his soul, but after everything he's done I'm not sure he could get a Diet Coke and a smile for it, much less a never-ending series of campaign resurrections.
Georgia:
Five new polls out. Four show Gingrich with a 20+ point lead in the state. Rasmussen shows him at +10, once again implying that Rasmussen's preferred polling method involves monkeys, dartboards and a prodigious amount of alcohol.
So....my personal predictions for tonight:
Georgia:
Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, Paul -- Gingrich by a big margin
Ohio:
Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul -- very tight outcome
Tennessee:
Santorum, Romney, Gingrich, Paul -- also very tight 3-way outcome, but I think the rural folks get out the vote for Santorum
Massachusetts:
Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul -- Romney may break 50% here, but it's not a Proportional++ contest
Oklahoma:
Santorum, Gingrich, Romney, Paul -- don't think Santorum breaks the 50% barrier
Vermont:
Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul -- Romney wins by about 6%
Virginia*:
Romney, Paul -- Romney breaks 50% easily, takes all the delegates, and the court challenges are filed before the vote count is even over with.
No place/win/show predictions for the caucus states (Alaska, North Dakota, Idaho) because they're just so volatile. But I think Ron Paul does well in all three, and I think Romney does well in Idaho.