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[RedKing]

I....gay marriage causes fat kids? LOLWUT

And let's mock equality because it's those godless liberals taking something from the BIBLE. Stupid sexy Bible.

Wow.

[Frumple]

I, uh. Aqi, was that a straight line of speech, that quote? I mean, was that actually said in order, just like that, in one sit down? Not... not broken up, or something, just... just like that? please say no please say no please say no oh gods

[Aqizzar]

I, uh. Aqi, was that a straight line of speech, that quote?

They're all real lines yes, but I have to believe that there was some kind of segue between them.

By the way, new NBC/WSJ national poll numbers out on Romney show a 28% Approval vs. 39% Disapproval.  That's getting into Gingrich territory, and supposedly he's in serious danger of being overtaken by Ron Paul in Virginia.  That truckload of endorsers he won over the weekend are probably feeling a little awkward now.

[RedKing]

supposedly he's in serious danger of being overtaken by Ron Paul in Virginia.

*spittake*

Fwa..wha??? Link, por favor? That would be HUGE (see previous ramblings about delegate numbers and Virginia).

[nenjin]

I kind of always knew he was going to speech himself right out of the race. But I figure once you've started on one non-sensical diatribe, it's bad form to stop midway.

[Aqizzar]

Fwa..wha??? Link, por favor? That would be HUGE (see previous ramblings about delegate numbers and Virginia).

Yeah, that was some definitely off-base hyperbole.  Damn television.  Romney's definitely walking away with Virginia.

Other interesting NBC/WSJ polls, asking people which party they feel does a better job of reaching out to non-base people.  Nationally, 55% Democrats vs. 26% Republicans.  In the category itself, 35% of self-identified Republicans said the Democratic party is better at attracting the non-hardcore to vote for them.  Along with a "what word comes to mind" question coming back like 80% negative for the Republican primary process, among Republican voters even, that is going to be some very concerning news.

[darkflagrance]

Fwa..wha??? Link, por favor? That would be HUGE (see previous ramblings about delegate numbers and Virginia).

Yeah, that was some definitely off-base hyperbole.  Damn television.  Romney's definitely walking away with Virginia.

Other interesting NBC/WSJ polls, asking people which party they feel does a better job of reaching out to non-base people.  Nationally, 55% Democrats vs. 26% Republicans.  In the category itself, 35% of self-identified Republicans said the Democratic party is better at attracting the non-hardcore to vote for them.  Along with a "what word comes to mind" question coming back like 80% negative for the Republican primary process, among Republican voters even, that is going to be some very concerning news.

Given how destructive all this super-pac competition is, maybe in future races Republicans will agree not to publicly campaign in the primaries via smearing, and will instead work out backroom deals so that only one major candidate will run and amass all the superpac money. Other prospective candidates will run, but they will be Huntsmans or Pauls and lack the money to destroy the image of the intended frontrunner.

[mainiac]

I think if Romney wins an outright majority of the delegates on Super Tuesday, this race will probably start to wind down.  Nate Silver's current estimate is for Romney to win 51% of the Super Tuesday delegates and for Santorum to slip behind Gingrich in the delegate counts.

So sadly the republican firing squad might be coming to it's end.  Maybe the slowbro-speeded scandal about Romney supporting the individual mandate at the national level will cause a fluke upset on Super Tuesday but I think there's a good chance this is going to be wrapping up.

Given how destructive all this super-pac competition is, maybe in future races Republicans will agree not to publicly campaign in the primaries via smearing, and will instead work out backroom deals so that only one major candidate will run and amass all the superpac money. Other prospective candidates will run, but they will be Huntsmans or Pauls and lack the money to destroy the image of the intended frontrunner.

I doubt it.  There is a party for people who care about the greater good.  It's called the Democratic party.  It's no accident that the batch of GOP prospects are the sort of people they are.  They are representative of national level GOP politicians.

[Luke_Prowler]

I hope the republican race doesn't end, because for each day it keeps going is another shot in the foot for republicans as a whole

[FearfulJesuit]

I hope the republican race doesn't end, because for each day it keeps going is another shot in the foot for republicans as a whole

Hear, hear. Though I'd be cool with it winding down early with Santorum as America's Hope for a More Patriotic Future.

[RedKing]

I think if Romney wins an outright majority of the delegates on Super Tuesday, this race will probably start to wind down.  Nate Silver's current estimate is for Romney to win 51% of the Super Tuesday delegates and for Santorum to slip behind Gingrich in the delegate counts.

So sadly the republican firing squad might be coming to it's end.  Maybe the slowbro-speeded scandal about Romney supporting the individual mandate at the national level will cause a fluke upset on Super Tuesday but I think there's a good chance this is going to be wrapping up.

I can't agree at all. Looking at the math, Romney has a tough hill to climb to make 1144 delegates by the convention, with all the proportional races out there. Winning California would be a big step in that direction, but winning Texas is going to be a very tough proposition. And if Santorum and Gingrich join forces (and delegates), they'll overtake him.

Romney has burnt through his war chest clawing to stay in front. As time drags on and he fails to seal the deal, the money is going to dry up.

[FearfulJesuit]

Surely if he wins the nomination he'll be able to get all the campaign donations he wants from large corporations?

[RedKing]

Surely if he wins the nomination he'll be able to get all the campaign donations he wants from large corporations?

If you're a company, are you going to waste your money with a candidate who you don't think has any real shot at winning? Corps will dump their bribes campaign donations into the Congressional races instead. They'll max out the single contribution to the candidate fund ($10K) because that's chump change. They'll likely give the same amount to Obama, because big companies are smart enough to hedge their bets. But the unlimited donations to the SuperPAC...that'll be sorely lacking.

[mainiac]

And if Santorum and Gingrich join forces (and delegates), they'll overtake him.

That would require them to like each other.  Sometimes the enemy of my enemy is an asshole too.

Even if Romney is slightly behind an absolute majority, people will see the writing on the wall.  If there is a clear second place candidate who stands a chance in a brokered convention, it makes sense to try taking it all the way.  But Santorum and Gingrich are both falling pretty far behind.  Romney has more then 50% of the delegates to date.  If Romney wins a majority tomorrow then he'll probably have 3 times as many as either Gingrich or Santorum.  What's the point of fighting on at that point?

Suppose that Romney only has 45% of the delegates come convention time.  It would be ugly to give him the nomination and lead to some bad optics.  But to deny him the nomination and give it to someone who had 30%?  That would be a shitstorm.  And to nominate a dark horse in this day and age is basically to concede the election to Obama.

It's possible that Romney can lose this thing.  But he'd need to start losing states and having the other guys catch up in the delegate counts.  If it doesn't happen tomorrow, when is it going to happen?

[Reelya]

Fwa..wha??? Link, por favor? That would be HUGE (see previous ramblings about delegate numbers and Virginia).

Yeah, that was some definitely off-base hyperbole.  Damn television.  Romney's definitely walking away with Virginia.

Other interesting NBC/WSJ polls, asking people which party they feel does a better job of reaching out to non-base people.  Nationally, 55% Democrats vs. 26% Republicans.  In the category itself, 35% of self-identified Republicans said the Democratic party is better at attracting the non-hardcore to vote for them.  Along with a "what word comes to mind" question coming back like 80% negative for the Republican primary process, among Republican voters even, that is going to be some very concerning news.

I'm not too surprised, as if you look at Gallup polls, republicans are far closer to being a monoculture (73% conservative) whereas only 38% of Democrats self-identify as liberals. So Republicans have more tendency to pander to their base supporters / live in an echo chamber than democrats do.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/120857/conservatives-single-largest-ideological-group.aspx