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Author Topic: American Election Megathread - It's Over  (Read 769074 times)

Aqizzar

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2565 on: March 01, 2012, 07:08:36 pm »

Is there anything in this system to prevent parties from holding primaries to decide who to back in the general primary?  It sounds to me like it's essentially a two tiered election system like the french presidency.  First comes the free for all election, then is a 1 on 1 runoff.  It's just calling the first election a primary.

Nope, that's exactly what I was a saying.  Basically, you can have each party picking its own candidate by some non-regulated means, then pushing them over anyone else for the primary round.  It actually does work better than it sounds - in Louisiana, they typically have a good half dozen major primary candidates, with at least two from each party.  I'm sure there's more complications than the pitch lets on, but it does at least work equitably, whether or not it's actually "better".
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darkrider2

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2566 on: March 01, 2012, 07:08:42 pm »

I wish we had more than two parties. Its getting to be this really 'good vs evil vibe' coming from all of it. Where its more effective to call your enemy the devil because the only other choice anyone has is you.
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GlyphGryph

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2567 on: March 01, 2012, 07:11:57 pm »

The problem is that while the party can pick whoever it wants, you just need one person with an ego big enough to say "BUT I WANT TO RUN TOO!" to spoil it.

I can honestly see it working much better with an AV system.
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Nadaka

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2568 on: March 01, 2012, 07:47:18 pm »

I wish we had more than two parties. Its getting to be this really 'good vs evil vibe' coming from all of it. Where its more effective to call your enemy the devil because the only other choice anyone has is you.

Its not really black and white. Imo its closer to charcoal vs dark black.
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mainiac

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2569 on: March 01, 2012, 08:59:15 pm »

The problem is that while the party can pick whoever it wants, you just need one person with an ego big enough to say "BUT I WANT TO RUN TOO!" to spoil it.

Someone with an ego big enough and a substantial following and a lot of fundraising and a stature high enough to not just get ignored by the media.  That narrows the field of egoist politicians a lot.
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2570 on: March 02, 2012, 11:13:13 am »

New polls! Dancers not included.

National:
Rasmussen shows Obama beating both the GOP front-runners, +6 over Romney, +3 over Santorum. Kinda WTF that Santorum is outperforming Romney in the general election polls, but it is what is.

Ohio:
Two different polls show Santorum's lead in the state slipping slightly, to an aggregate +3 over Romney.

Washington state:
Romney at +5. My guess is that you'd see the breakdown divide pretty sharply geographically, with Republicans in the western half of the state breaking hard for Romney and the eastern half of the state breaking for Santorum.

North Carolina:
I wish I could say I'm surprised, but it's Santorum +6. The really surprising bit is that the breakdown is

Santorum: 31%
Romney: 25%
Gingrich: 23%
Paul: 8%

HTH is Gingrich doing that well here?? Some weird solidarity with Georgia because we're both former CSA states or something?? I'm doubly ashamed of our Republican Tarheels.

Wisconsin:
Santorum by a whopping +16. Little bit surprised, given Wisconsin's general trend of being a progressive state, but I guess it's like California -- when the GOP is a minority, they just get that much more radicalized.

Tennessee:
Santorum by +21. Not surprised in the least. Ron Paul has the potential to snag 3rd place here.

Virginia:
Romney by +35. Of course, Santorum and Gingrich aren't even on the ballot here, so it's a 2-person race. Even with that, "Undecided/Other" (23%) is outperforming Ron Paul (21%).
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mainiac

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2571 on: March 02, 2012, 11:16:59 am »

Virginia:
Romney by +35. Of course, Santorum and Gingrich aren't even on the ballot here, so it's a 2-person race. Even with that, "Undecided/Other" (23%) is outperforming Ron Paul (21%).

Trololol.
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Ancient Babylonian god of RAEG
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PyroDesu

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2572 on: March 02, 2012, 01:55:02 pm »

Tennessee:
Santorum by +21. Not surprised in the least. Ron Paul has the potential to snag 3rd place here.

No surprises whatsoever there.
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Frumple

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2573 on: March 04, 2012, 10:30:26 am »

So I was hearing TV in the distance again and wanted to fact-check m'own understanding of the situation, specifically re: this contraception foofaraw.

From what I understand, and the first time I heard about anything large-scale involving it, it started(?) with the feds withdrawing funding from institutions (such as catholic hospitals, yes.) that did not provide contraceptive access (along with a few other things, of course, but contraceptives is what I'm specifically interested in, here.). There wasn't, so far as I understood, any other (or any, period, really) coercive aspect to the decision -- nothing forcing institutions that didn't want to provide contraceptives to provide them. They just couldn't expect federal funding if they didn't.

Did the situation change when I wasn't paying attention? Was my initial impression inaccurate? I'm asking because, from my understanding of the situation, the general public message getting out against the federal decision seems like a baldfaced lie, and given the at-least media pervasiveness of the message, that seems a bit bold even for the normal rabblerousers. Can someone a bit more up to date on the situation clarify?
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GlyphGryph

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2574 on: March 04, 2012, 10:50:46 am »

What changed is that the folks who see contraception as immoral and want to make it illegal decided to make a big wedge issue about it.

Just like the death panels from a couple years ago, the whole thing is a big Republican lie, basically.

Nothing is new in the legislation, Obama had nothing to do with it, it's been the way it is for years from what I understand, someone just felt the need to make a big deal about nothing.
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Reelya

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2575 on: March 04, 2012, 10:58:32 am »

Personally i don't think a hospital should be limiting the choice of treatment based on the religious views of the owners. It's not like a kosher diner or something where you can just go buy food elsewhere if you want pork etc.

A hospital is a major piece of infrastructure which serves a large region - basically a near monopoly in many areas. You can't assume that every client is going to have the exact same needs and opinions on treatment as the owners. And if you're not providing the services which are required to maintain you as the hospital in that area, then the funding should go to someone who WILL provided the basic services.

Frumple

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2576 on: March 04, 2012, 11:07:54 am »

@Gryph: Yeah, I guess that just surprises me somehow, at least that no one is (or seems to, or at least that I've noticed) being a bit more overt calling them on blatant lying. I guess I expected at least some form policy or legislation shift to have sprung up while I wasn't looking and triggered all this nonsense :-\

I really shouldn't expect dignity from public figures anymore, I guess.

Re: Reelya, I'm not really interested in that :P

The underlying aspects aren't what concerns me (I'm basically on the same line as you are, t'be honest), really, it's whether or not my understanding of the media uproar is accurate. I.e. whether the stuff being rambled about by the political candidates is even remotely honest. I was hoping I was wrong, really. It's kinda' disrespectful to everyone involved to be pushing about something that literally has no truth to it, if that's actually what's going on.
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2577 on: March 04, 2012, 11:29:16 am »

Yes and no. The kerfluffle was over whether or not non-church religious institutions could opt out of insurance coverage for contraception for their employees. There was already an exemption in the law as written for churches. But this language did not cover religious-funded institutions which are not churches, such as schools and hospitals. There's nothing about Federal funding involved AFAIK.

So effectively, this meant that when Sacred Heart hospital buys insurance coverage for its employees, it cannot tell the insurance company "Oh, and btw...we don't want any birth control coverage for our employees, even though it's part of the package we bought."

There is actually nothing preventing a private insurance company from creating an insurance package which doesn't cover contraception and selling that to their Catholic clients, if there's such a big demand. OMG....a market solution! Which Republicans are quite willing to ignore if it makes for good political theater.

Also ignores the fact that some 90% of American Catholic women report using birth control. That's one big area where American Catholics have long been willing to tell the Pope to fuck off in comparison to Europeans. What the Church doesn't like is that its own employees (who may not be Catholics themselves, mind you) can tell them to fuck off, not just lay parishoners.

Of course, a lot of this is dog-whistling. Privately, the argument is that "if they can do this with contraception, they can do it with abortion". So the specter of "government-mandated abortion coverage" is being used to drum up support among the base without actually invoking something so patently ridiculous out in the open. Problem being, the approach is utterly tone-deaf and the image that's resulted is "OMG Republicans want to ban condoms". Which is also totally wrong, but hey...it's an image they helped create themeselves.


Romney wins utterly non-binding straw poll in Washington state. Ron Paul comes in 2nd, with Santorum a very close 3rd. Of course, nobody actually gets any delegates out of it, so it's a beauty contest. And one you'd expect Romney to do well in.

Quote
Attending his first caucus at the Labor Temple in Seattle's Belltown neighborhood, Dillon Smith, 31, vowed to write in Paul's name no matter who is on the ballot in November.

"I would rather die than vote for any of the other candidates," said Smith, because the country needs someone who will "basically slit the throat of the federal government."

So....it has come to this. Let's elect someone who will slit our collective throat.  ::)



Newest polls:

National:

Gallup has Romney back in front at +14 nationally. Are we beginning to see "primary fatigue" and a general sense of "F**k it, we're going to lose anyways, just put the rich guy in and hope for the best"?

Because Rasmussen's latest polls show no change: Romney or Santorum, they both lose to Obama nationally.

Georgia:
Gingrich has this one in hand, at +14-20. There must be something powerful strong in that peach cobbler down there.

Ohio:
Santorum clings to hope here, at +2. Focus is increasingly turning to Ohio as the "make or break state" on Tuesday, if only because it's the most competitive of the races. Intrade seems to have decided the state is going to go Romney, but Nate Silver still gives Santorum a 2/3 shot of winning.

Tennessee:
Where MTSU's poll had Santorum at +21 just a couple of days ago and Vanderbilt's at +18 just before that, Rasmussen's poll shows him at a mere +4. Either his support has plummeted for some inexplicable reason, or once again Scott Rasmussen wouldn't know how to conduct a proper poll if it bit him in the ass. I'm inclined to go with the latter.



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Frumple

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2578 on: March 04, 2012, 12:01:28 pm »

Thanks Red, that was exactly th'clarification I was looking for. Definitely doesn't look like the horrific restriction of religious practice it seems to be getting spun as :-\
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2579 on: March 04, 2012, 12:19:48 pm »

Thanks Red, that was exactly th'clarification I was looking for. Definitely doesn't look like the horrific restriction of religious practice it seems to be getting spun as :-\

Yeah, really. It's not that they're forced to pay for contraception (which is how it's being spun), it's that they're being prevented from opting out of the benefit if it's part of the plan they purchase. And honestly, most insurance plans DON'T cover birth control to begin with. I don't see the insurance companies lining up to say, "Welp, sorry but our hands are tied. We INSIST on giving you birth control coverage." I'm sure some diocese somewhere will make the asshat choice to drop insurance coverage altogether, so that it can be spun as "Obama and those damn liberals are so hellbent on getting taxpayer-funded condoms into the hands of our children that they'd rather see people go WITHOUT coverage than allow the religious exemption".  ::)

And the attempted amendment that the GOP tried to pass was just idiotic. It would have allowed ANY employer to opt-out of paying for coverage of ANY type of benefit that they had "a religious or moral objection to".

Boss is a Jehovah's Witness and doesn't believe in blood transfusions? Okay, you'll have to pay for that yourself.
Boss is Christian Scientist and doesn't beieve in medicine period?? You're screwed.
Get cancer and the boss doesn't want to have to pay increasing premiums because your long-term care is being penalized by the insurance company? He can just claim he has a "moral objection" to chemotherapy.

It would have been a giant can of worms. Thankfully, there were enough Republicans that also realized this and voted it down. This isn't a First Amendment issue. It isn't even a speech issue. It's a labor rights issue. Employees are not the property of their employer. And the fact that employers already make major decisions about healthcare coverage when they choose what plans to offer. The counterargument seems to boil down to, "If your employer pays your insurance premiums, they get to decide. Money talks."
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