After three weary weeks in the wilderness, drifting from policy argument to random name-calling...we have finally arrived at the Promised Land, my children: there be some primary shit going down in this hizzy tonight!
So, one last peek at the polls as Michiganders and Arizones head to their polls:
NationalNewest Gallup tracking poll shows Romney back on top at +4, suggesting Santorum's momentum may be evaporating in the face of Rick Santorum being Rick Santorum.
MichiganPPP has Santorum at +1, Mitchell/Rosetta Stone has Romney at +1. Translation: Who the hell knows? Both polls show Romney at 37%, Gingrich at 9%. Either way, the final result is going to be more about narrative than delegate count. MI is proportional (and penalized half its delegates), and I think it's safe to say the final margin of victory is going to be slim either way, so Romney and Santorum will come out of Michigan with roughly the same results. Either way, it's going to be an underwhelming result for Romney in his "home state" to only net around 37%.
If he wins, his narrative will be "It was a tough race, but we won!" while Santorum's will be "we came >< that close to picking off the supposed "inevitable candidate in his own backyard."
If he loses, Santorum will be crowing about the victory, and I have no idea how Team Romney spins it.
Even if he wins, it may be a Pyrrhic victory. Romney's spent a LOT of money trying to salvage Michigan, because of the psychological effect of not carrying your home state, even though delegate-wise it's a small fish.
Arizona:
Most recent polls put the state safely for Romney at +12 to +14. Santorum was recently booed during the last Arizona debate.
End result: I think Romney wins the battle, but loses the war. He'll come out of tonight with a bigger lead in delegates than he started with (due to a Michigan split-decision and a win in Arizona) but his image as the "inevitable" candidate has been shaken to the core. If he fails to win Michigan, it's arguable that he doesn't even win the battle. Big-ticket donors could begin deserting him in droves. Not that they'll flock to Santorum, but more that they'll accept that it just isn't in the cards for the GOP this cycle and target their money at the Congressional races instead.
I may be online during some of the election returns, but instead of watching four guys politely try to beat each other's brains out and score points in front of raucous, screaming crowds of supporters with few rules and those rules inconsistently enforced....I'll be at a hockey game. It's much the same thing, only with 12 guys instead of 4.