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Author Topic: American Election Megathread - It's Over  (Read 763523 times)

Montague

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2205 on: February 20, 2012, 10:29:50 pm »

Government spending has only gone up, but public debt has gone down under the Clinton administration. I'd like to see a serious effort to bring spending in line right now, with the Republican Congress, but they haven't done much there.

We have a growing population and an economy that normally experiences moderate inflation.  Trying to bring spending down in nominal terms would require vast cutbacks in terms of government services required.  Even more vast when you consider that most government spending is simply giving people the social security/medicare/medicaid/unemployment insurance (insurance, not welfare which is like 2%) that they paid for and those aren't going to get cut because people paid for them and expect to receive them.

Suppose that you completely eliminated every last dollar spent on defense over 7 years.  That wouldn't bring spending down in absolute terms, it would just level it off.
Suppose that you completely eliminated every last non-defense discretionary dollar over 5 years.  That wouldn't bring spending down in absolute terms, again, just leveling it off.
Eliminate them both and you've got us level for 11 years... assuming that society hasn't collapsed into anarchy long before this point.

Because either of these would be simply vast.  One would be eliminating the entire damn military, everything, soldiers healthcare and pensions, everything.  One would be shutting down basically everything that you think of as "government", post office, NIH, NASA, FBI, FEMA, the federal highway administration, the smithsonian, border control, everything.

While there is a little fat to cut in military procurements and the size of our armed forces (but not enough for what you are talking about without a severe shakeup), we've already spent 15 years cutting the non-defense discretionary spending until there's nothing easy left to cut.  Going even a single year with a reduction in net government spending would involve huge sacrifices.  Because even just holding spending constant means cutting everything in defense and non-defense discretionary by 10% a year per-capita in real terms.

So if someone tells you that he is going to bring government spending down in real terms, ask him to explain what very substantial government programs is he going to end?  Will he completely end welfare, NASA, the national health administration, every cent of foreign aid and all government highway funding?  Well all those together would make us break even for about a single year.

Meanwhile the US has something like the 7th lowest tax rate in the world and a system that is basically an overall flat tax when you account for regressive state and local taxation as well as progressive federal federal (which means the poor people in the more regressive states pay more of their total income in taxes then the rich in those states).  So increasing revenues with a more progressive system is entirely feasible from an economic standpoint.

I agree taxes in general are far too low. The right seems hell bent on this idea of that lowering taxes will raise revenue. If there was any weight to this idea is that corporate taxes are pretty high and don't generate a large portion of the revenue anyways.

I think the Republicans, both parties really, need to grow some balls and figure out how to tackle Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security which are all dangerously unsustainable programs taking up the majority of the federal budget. Not just increasing the retirement age another year or anything lame like that either. Reform it, gut it, raise taxes, do whatever it takes.

They have been willing to axe the more absurd of the military boondoggles eating up the defense budget, which was a good start, but railing against some of the more irrelevant tertiary federal programs strikes me as creating a lot of noise to help the ignore the real problem of the deficit spending. Welfare programs are cheap, NASA is cheap. Corn subsidies are not bankrupting America. They need to get real with their priorities. Either way, it's going to catch up to them very shortly if they don't do something about it soon.

Though I imagine they will just keep agreeing on raising the debt ceiling, hoping to delay the problem until Israel is invaded according to prophecy, the Rapture happens and all Americans go to heaven.

Also: There are countries with lower tax rates then the USA? Seems unlikely somehow. Uruguay, maybe?

Also: Tuition is stupidly high for no good reason at all. Probably because student loans are so easy to get.
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mainiac

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2206 on: February 20, 2012, 10:31:25 pm »

Was there a republican compromise on defense spending that I missed?  Last I heard was them vowing to increasing defense spending to make up for the increases Obama didn't make.
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G-Flex

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2207 on: February 20, 2012, 10:35:07 pm »

Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security which are all dangerously unsustainable programs taking up the majority of the federal budget.

The majority? I'm reading something like 43%. Just saying.
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Montague

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2208 on: February 20, 2012, 10:37:33 pm »

Was there a republican compromise on defense spending that I missed?  Last I heard was them vowing to increasing defense spending to make up for the increases Obama didn't make.

They passed the latest defense bill, which cut spending. Although I believe the majority of 'savings' here was the end of the Iraq war, which they lamely defined as a spending cut.
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palsch

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2209 on: February 20, 2012, 10:38:26 pm »

Still though, you think private industry will still be able to offer loans to students at realistic rates?  I doubt it.
Depends on what you mean by realistic. They will be able to offer loans at market rates, for unsubsidised values of market. And they will almost certainly not be competitive with government loans simply because, in this area, government is going to be far more efficient and effective. There will be something of a market for the less competitive private loans, probably a mix of those who can't qualify for government loans and those too paranoid or ideological to apply for them.

Maybe it's just me, but I don't tend to give a crap about ideology in direct market questions like this. I care about getting the most good for the least cost. Direct government loans are more efficient than subsidised private loans. I don't care to burn money on an extra layer of bureaucracy (even private bureaucracy is bureaucracy) just to pretend that a public initiative is actually a private industry. I can think of far more useful ways the government can pay people to do busywork. Even bankers.
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mainiac

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2210 on: February 20, 2012, 10:40:09 pm »

Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security which are all dangerously unsustainable programs taking up the majority of the federal budget.

Social security is solvent for two decades at current rates and solvent indefinitely with slight adjustments.  It's not dangerously unsustainable.  And even a slightly faster rate of economic growth would mean it's indefinitely sustainable without that slight adjustment.

Medicare and Medicaid currently are growing at a slower rate then private healthcare.  So it's not a government problem we have, it's a healthcare problem we have.  Luckily the american public loves to embrace healthcare reform proposals.

Also, it's important to remember that despite the apocolyptic language, current law would close the american budget gap pretty quickly:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/the-do-nothing-plan-now-worth-71-trillion/2011/08/25/gIQAmfIIYN_blog.html

Now this isn't quite realistic because those cuts would be self defeating until the economy has a couple more years to recover.  But after that, we are good if we just stick to paygo rules.  Even if we do no healthcare reforms at all, those costs won't rise forever.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2012, 10:43:25 pm by mainiac »
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"Don't tell me what you value. Show me your budget and I will tell you what you value"
« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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Montague

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2211 on: February 20, 2012, 11:04:13 pm »

Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security which are all dangerously unsustainable programs taking up the majority of the federal budget.

Social security is solvent for two decades at current rates and solvent indefinitely with slight adjustments.  It's not dangerously unsustainable.  And even a slightly faster rate of economic growth would mean it's indefinitely sustainable without that slight adjustment.

Medicare and Medicaid currently are growing at a slower rate then private healthcare.  So it's not a government problem we have, it's a healthcare problem we have.  Luckily the american public loves to embrace healthcare reform proposals.

Also, it's important to remember that despite the apocolyptic language, current law would close the american budget gap pretty quickly:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/the-do-nothing-plan-now-worth-71-trillion/2011/08/25/gIQAmfIIYN_blog.html

Now this isn't quite realistic because those cuts would be self defeating until the economy has a couple more years to recover.  But after that, we are good if we just stick to paygo rules.  Even if we do no healthcare reforms at all, those costs won't rise forever.

That article assumes sequestration cuts take place. That would be the "doomsday" spending cuts intended to be so drastic and unpalatable that a bipartisan budget would be basically forced to compromise on a new budget. It was the thing they thought up when they decided to raise the debt ceiling again. Chances are, those sequestration cuts will not go into effect. Probably an agreement on a new budget will be reached in a dramatic last-minute session, after which they'll take another vacation.

Healthcare reform would be wonderful. I like Obamacare for at least trying to solve the problem of ever-rising healthcare expenses in the country, although I'm not sure how well it will ever pan out. It would hopefully ease the expense of funding Medicare/Medicaid anyways.

The wars ending in Iraq and Afghanistan and the resulting downsizing/ down-scaling/ stand down of the military is going to help.

Letting the tax cuts expire would be great, but everybody in Washington seems to agree they need to continue forever.

Anyways, all said and done I don't have much confidence in the government to actually come up with any real solutions any time soon. Even if doing nothing would solve the problem, I'm pretty sure they'd find a way to fuck that up too.
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NinjaBoot

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2212 on: February 20, 2012, 11:47:39 pm »

Still though, you think private industry will still be able to offer loans to students at realistic rates?  I doubt it.
Depends on what you mean by realistic. They will be able to offer loans at market rates, for unsubsidised values of market.

They still won't be able to compete with the government in this regard.  Subsidized means the government doesn't expect you to pay back the interest payments (they do), unsubsidized means you will have to pay back the interest.  In this case, again, government wins out because private industry cannot compete with the rate and terms they are offering. 

Quote
And they will almost certainly not be competitive with government loans simply because, in this area, government is going to be far more efficient and effective.

Its more of a bottom-line sort of deal.  Government offers then a going rate that is too good to pass up, not because they are actually efficient (when are they ever) or necessarily effective.

Quote
There will be something of a market for the less competitive private loans, probably a mix of those who can't qualify for government loans and those too paranoid or ideological to apply for them.

Of course, it is not like any of these companies will be going away, just offering less services and charging more for them. 

Quote
Maybe it's just me, but I don't tend to give a crap about ideology in direct market questions like this. I care about getting the most good for the least cost. Direct government loans are more efficient than subsidised private loans. I don't care to burn money on an extra layer of bureaucracy (even private bureaucracy is bureaucracy) just to pretend that a public initiative is actually a private industry. I can think of far more useful ways the government can pay people to do busywork. Even bankers.

The more apt question would be, why is government in the student-loans industry in the first place?  Why should other taxpayers be responsible for what other people do?  By cornering the market on these loans, you are now making taxpayers 100% liable for any and all people who do not pay back their loans for any number of reasons.   Hell, even then, not everybody is going to get a job they goto school for.  You think someone who went to school and got a sociology degree is going to get a good enough job to pay off what it took to get it? 
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Frumple

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2213 on: February 21, 2012, 12:14:20 am »

Just to doublecheck here, do you really not know why government subsidized student loans exist (i.e. why the taxpayers want to pay for them/government is "in the student-loans industry"), or are you just playing devil's advocate/pushing your own opinion?

If it's the latter you'd save me a more detailed response... and it's not exactly rocket science why we're doing it, so not having a reason to expend the effort would be nice.
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NinjaBoot

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2214 on: February 21, 2012, 12:23:43 am »

Just to doublecheck here, do you really not know why government subsidized student loans exist (i.e. why the taxpayers want to pay for them), or are you just playing devil's advocate/pushing your own opinion?

If it's the latter you'd save me a more detailed response... and it's not exactly rocket science why we're doing it, so not having a reason to expend the effort would be nice.

If we are assuming that everybody will get the jobs they are going to school to have the education required for.

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Frumple

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2215 on: February 21, 2012, 12:32:38 am »

If we are assuming that everybody will get the jobs they are going to school to have the education required for.
I, uh. That... that's not actually a sentence. Accidental post?
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NobodyPro

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2216 on: February 21, 2012, 12:39:05 am »

Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?
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Urist Imiknorris

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2217 on: February 21, 2012, 12:41:47 am »

Where did that come from? I've seen it three times now.
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NobodyPro

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2218 on: February 21, 2012, 12:46:14 am »

The ACTA treaty؟


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NinjaBoot

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2219 on: February 21, 2012, 12:54:24 am »

If we are assuming that everybody will get the jobs they are going to school to have the education required for.
I, uh. That... that's not actually a sentence. Accidental post?

Oops!

Of course people want government funded education loans because it ends up being cheaper for those looking for a loan. 

That is, unfortunately, if we naturally assume that the ideal scenario of it plays out: that everybody who takes a loan out from the government ends up finding a job and paying back the money within a reasonable time-frame.  I am talking about years, not decades. 

Sadly this is not the case because alot of people simply do not graduate, or even if they do graduate college, do not find the work they went to school for.  Unless you goto school for a hard skill like doctor or lawyer, then you will have a hard time finding work that will give you the ability to pay off your debt in a reasonable amount of time.  Where do you think all those Occupy Protestors crying about debt and no job come from?

The end result of this is creating a group of people who are too educated for what they are working in, ontop of being saddled with a bad amount of debt.  And these people cannot ever default on that debt because the government will not allow it, so you are always paying for it. 
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