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Author Topic: American Election Megathread - It's Over  (Read 767740 times)

Descan

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2115 on: February 20, 2012, 01:44:29 pm »

Oh god, Chretien. He was a badass.

Couldn't understand the fuck he was saying, but damn he was a badass ol' man.
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Zrk2

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2116 on: February 20, 2012, 03:11:37 pm »

Then Martin happened. And Harper. We need some more interesting politicians.
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nenjin

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2117 on: February 20, 2012, 03:16:50 pm »

Ted Nugget, 2016. If you can't elect him, you can skin him and eat him.
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2118 on: February 20, 2012, 04:00:07 pm »

New poll data.

National tracking poll, Gallup (2/19):

Santorum: 36%
Romney:   26%
Gingrich:   13%
Paul:        11%

Looks like Romney has staunched the bleeding, with his deficit to Santorum nationally flattening out at about 10-12%. Still, the implosion of Gingrich at the same time as Santorum's surge (I think it's a requirement that any talk of Rick Santorum uses the term "surge") meant that Romney had about one week at the beginning of February where he was able to breathe easy. And then it was back to hanging on for dear life.

Looking back and comparing this to 2008, 2012 is all over the damn place. 2008 was pretty much stable up until the voting started. 2012, we've had 5 different front-runners in the national polls, and four different front-runners (Perry, Cain, Gingrich, Romney) before the actual primaries even started. Candidates have had these huge 30-40 point spikes, then within less than a month, they're plummeting equally as fast. Hell, Gingrich has managed to do that twice.


Arizona, PPP (2/19):
Romney: 36%
Santorum: 33%
Gingrich: 16%
Paul: 9%

Less than three weeks ago, Romney was winning Arizona by 24 points. Epic collapse.


Michigan, two different polls, 2/19:
We got one set of polls that show Romney and Santorum tied at 29%, but with 12% "undecided". Another poll shows Santorum leading Romney 37-33. Either way, it's still a tight race, and if anything it's getting tighter. Just a few days ago, Santorum was polling as high as +10 to Romney. Michigan appears to be where the Romney SuperPAC has decided to drop the heavy artillery for now.


Quick history lesson:
There's also increasing rumbling about the possibility of a brokered convention in Tampa. And possibly even a "compromise candidate" wherein the party would basically trot out a brand new candidate in order to break the impasse. This occurred somewhat more frequently in the US in the 19th century and early 20th century, but has been extremely rare in the postwar era. The last brokered GOP convention was the 1948 convention when Thomas Dewey lacked enough delegates to win, but his three nearest rivals refused to support a compromise candidate to oppose him. Eventually one of the three withdrew from the race and freed his delegates up to vote however they chose, which pushed Dewey over the top.

The last convention where an entirely different candidate was elected was the infamous 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago. Anti-war candidate Eugene McCarthy had won the primaries, with 38.73% of the total popular vote in the primaries, with Robert Kennedy in 2nd place. President Johnson had dropped out of the race and announced that he would not run for re-election. The esatblishment within the Democratic Party feared losing control to an outsider like McCarthy, and so orchestrated the nomination of Vice President Hubert Humphrey at the convention, despite the fact that Humphrey had not run in a single primary, and Johnson (whose stead he would be running in) fared terribly before dropping out, only taking New Hampshire (and barely taking it at that). Humphrey got most of his support from states which did not run primary elections (which was actually a majority of them) by orchestrating with the party bosses in those states to get their support.

The McCarthy supporters (mostly young anti-war activists and intellectuals) staged a huge mass protest outside the hotel where the convention was occuring, and Chicago mayor Richard Daley (a party boss and part of the establishment) used the police to crack down hard. The protests turned into riots, but Humphrey was nominated regardless. He went down to defeat in the fall to Richard Nixon.

And that, boys and girls, is why primary elections matter. Because without them, you wind up with a candidate picked by the party elites rather the populace. And you can expect to see a metric shitton of references and comparisons to Chicago, 1968 if Romney is trailing in candidates going into this thing but somehow comes out the nominee.
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Aqizzar

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2119 on: February 20, 2012, 04:42:43 pm »

Arizona, PPP (2/19):
Romney: 36%
Santorum: 33%
Gingrich: 16%
Paul: 9%

Less than three weeks ago, Romney was winning Arizona by 24 points. Epic collapse.

Never forget the influence of local politics and prurience.  Obviously nothing about little stories like that reflect the Romney campaign itself, but anything that puts a bad taste in people's mouths can swing an election.

I think the nature of the Republican primary turnout in Arizona and Michigan will say a lot about how they go in the general election too, since they're both serious swing-states.  But I can't commit to a read.  I want to think that a Romney victory would signal a Romney general win, but it's easy to think otherwise.

As for a brokered convention, it really depends on how long Santorum manages to survive (I think Gingrich's time as an opponent has come and gone, but we'll see what the South brings), how many caucus votes Paul manages to spirit away in the night (if his tactic works as well as his mailers hope, he could have a couple hundred delegates by the end), and how thoroughly Romney manages to discredit himself as "electable" compared to how well positioned Obama is by August (state of the economy, PAC funds, foreign affairs, etc).  It's doubtful, but I bet Richard Daley could never have predicted in February of '68 what he'd be presiding over that autumn.

This Republican nomination has certainly been a game of upsets, and with so many proportional votes, it's really a question of funding more than anything.  But with the giant spotlight on the process and the candidates, I guarantee that it won't result in someone not currently running being nominated.

Still need to update the OP for Maine, which I think is still a little fuzzy.  I can't go into too much detail there, because I have to save room in the post.
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mainiac

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2120 on: February 20, 2012, 05:24:28 pm »

There were brokered conventions in '76 (GOP) and '84 (Democratic) as well.  They just weren't as high profile because each time the frontrunner was picked instead of a runner up or dark horse.  But they both made for bad optics and helped the eventual nominee go on to lose the general election in both races.  The GOP looks more on track to this sort of brokered convention then a dark horse nominee.  It's possible that there will be enough Paul and Gingrich votes for neither Romney nor Santorum to come up with an absolute majority.  This could lead to all sorts of embarrassing situations.
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Frumple

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2121 on: February 20, 2012, 05:29:36 pm »

This could lead to all sorts of embarrassing situations.
... wouldn't that make it kind of par for course for this whole primary?

Methinks you've now doomed(?) us to experience the phenomena. Should be interesting!
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nenjin

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2122 on: February 20, 2012, 05:44:18 pm »

GOP Primary Cage Match, American Gladiators style! Air cannons with tennis balls, the medicine ball course and of course, facing down the American Gladiators to reach the finish. The first GOP contender to finish without a heart attack or expressing feelings of homosexuality wins!
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Montague

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2123 on: February 20, 2012, 06:03:29 pm »

I'm not sure the GOP would want Santorum running against the president, if it came down to a brokered convention. I don't think he is electable, he basically embodies everything people hate about Republicans and I'm sure somebody else has recognized this as well.

Romney is the only candidate that might stand a chance, even if the Republican base isn't terribly excited about him, he is going to have an easier time getting independents to vote for him then Santorum would.
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Aqizzar

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2124 on: February 20, 2012, 06:15:51 pm »

If that is the scenario, wherein neither Romney nor Santorum reach the convention with enough delegates to win, and they have to bargain a deal between at least each other and/or Paul and Gingrich, the Republican party and it's reliable voters are going to be stuck in a staring match.  If Romney is declared the winner by a brokered convention, the Republican base could revolt, which is to say, not turn out for the election (or uselessly throw itself at some last ditch ultraconservative third-party).  If Santorum is declared the winner (it's hardly impossible that he could still win up in the lead), then the great Independent Majority of American voters are going to flee the Republican party in droves, split between staying home and voting Obama.

Anything can happen of course, but in the case of a brokered convention and the ideological spectacle it would entail, those would be the probable outcomes.
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NinjaBoot

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2125 on: February 20, 2012, 06:20:40 pm »

I'm not sure the GOP would want Santorum running against the president, if it came down to a brokered convention. I don't think he is electable, he basically embodies everything people hate about Republicans and I'm sure somebody else has recognized this as well.

Why?  Because he is religious?

[Edit]

Aqizzar, there will be no revolt.  Republicans will vote for ANYONE not named Obama.  They want him out of office.  That said, they also want the candidate that best represents them and their core ideals and has the best chance at being elected. 
« Last Edit: February 20, 2012, 06:23:02 pm by NinjaBoot »
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mainiac

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2126 on: February 20, 2012, 06:23:05 pm »

Because he believes in banning birth control?
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2127 on: February 20, 2012, 06:27:40 pm »

Anything can happen of course, but in the case of a brokered convention and the ideological spectacle it would entail, those would be the probable outcomes.
There is also Ron Paul's inevitable independent/libertarian campaign to consider. His hardcore followers are like cultists (I still, still see "Paul 2008" bumper stickers every once in a while), and he himself is so ideologically motivated that the GOP rejecting him won't mean anything to him.
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Aqizzar

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2128 on: February 20, 2012, 06:31:57 pm »

I'm not sure the GOP would want Santorum running against the president, if it came down to a brokered convention. I don't think he is electable, he basically embodies everything people hate about Republicans and I'm sure somebody else has recognized this as well.

Why?  Because he is religious?

There's a difference between being religious, and statements like this:

Quote
One of the criticisms I make is to what I refer to as more of a libertarianish right. You know, the left has gone so far left and the right in some respects has gone so far right that they touch each other. They come around in the circle. This whole idea of personal autonomy, well I don’t think most conservatives hold that point of view. Some do. They have this idea that people should be left alone, be able to do whatever they want to do, government should keep our taxes down and keep our regulations low, that we shouldn’t get involved in the bedroom, we shouldn’t get involved in cultural issues. You know, people should do whatever they want. Well, that is not how traditional conservatives view the world and I think most conservatives understand that individuals can’t go it alone. That there is no such society that I am aware of, where we’ve had radical individualism and that it succeeds as a culture.

For Santorum, it's not about stopping the government from imposing on your life.  It's about the government imposing on your life in the right way; namely a way that fell out of favor in the Western world around 1880.

Aqizzar, there will be no revolt.  Republicans will vote for ANYONE not named Obama.  They want him out of office.  That said, they also want the candidate that best represents them and their core ideals and has the best chance at being elected.

I don't expect there to be, no.  I can just see some plausible scenarios where it could happen, a hotly contested majority-less convention being one of them.  And yeah, anti-Obama will carry any nominee a long way, it's just a question of how far.
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NinjaBoot

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2129 on: February 20, 2012, 06:33:57 pm »

Because he believes in banning birth control?

So? 

Ok, I'll game.  So he bans birth control.  Is this going to lead to an increase to an already increasing number of underaged mothers and single mothers?  Is it going to increase the already 40% of children not having a father/mother? 
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