New relevant polling data:
For the first time, Rick Santorum is now leading in national-level polling. In the last 4 days, Santorum lead Romney in 3 of 4 national tracking polls. This is pretty big news. After the Iowa near-win that later turned out to be a real win, his national-level support only jumped up as high as 17.3%. He's now polling at 30.2% on average, narrowly edging out Romney at 28.6%. Gingrich continues to freefall, dropping to 16.4% and Ron Paul is essentially flat at 12%.
With two weeks left until the Arizona and Michigan primaries, Michigan has swung 30 points, turning a +15 Romney state on 2/1 into a +15 Santorum state by 2/12. That's some jaw-dropping change of heart right there, which tells you that people have just never been solidly sold on Romney. Or maybe they're finally starting to admit to themselves that this thing just ain't gonna happen in 2012, and that admission of pre-defeat frees them to vote for the crazy mofo that they've always wanted to vote for deep down.
Recent (2/9) poll in Georgia still shows Gingrich in the lead, but that lead has been cut down to single digits. The fascinating part is that it's no longer Romney he's having to fend off.
Georgia, 2/2 (Survey USA):
45%: Newt Gingrich
32%: Mitt Romney
9%: Rick Santorum
8%: Ron Paul
Georgia, 2/9 (Landmark/Rosetta Stone):
35%: Newt Gingrich
26%: Rick Santorum
16%: Mitt Romney
5%: Ron Paul
Will Gingrich turn the long knives on Santorum after AZ/MI? Is he going to hold out hope for dual wins in Ohio and Georgia on 6 March to rekindle his campaign, and/or will he fold if he loses those races? I still maintain that if Gingrich folded and threw his weight behind Santorum, the hardcore conservative cannibalism cycle would be complete, and Rick Santorum would be the Christian conservative Kwisatz Haderach.
Who will promptly be devoured by Shai-Obama in the general election.