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[Zrk2]

I think you guys might want to know about this. Well played federal court of appeals, well played.

[Frumple]

There's a bit more on that over in th'progressive annoyance thread, heh.

[mainiac]

first past the post system

So we fix that, ne? If the big boys did manage to tear themselves into pieces, we'd probably see a hell of a lot more support for a more proportional style or somethin'.

I'd be all for it myself but I just don't see how it's going to happen.  It would take the most sweeping constitutional amendment since the 14th amendment.  And while proportional representation it does have natural constituencies (far left, far right) they both divided and kept out of power through the current rules.  I just don't see what storyline leads to proportional representation without something really game changing happening like a year-long government shutdown.

[RedKing]

Four or five parties is simply not going to happen given the setup of american elections.  You don't even need to blame the "media" or "elites" or anyone else.  In a large-district, first past the post system it is not possible to have 4 or 5 major parties co-exist for an extended period.

No, but I could see a regional system evolving.

Fiscal conservative/social moderate-libertarian party (the old GOP) dominant in the Northeast and West Coast
Social conservative party in the South, Midwest and Mountain West
Centrist market liberal party in the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley/Rust Belt
Social liberal party in Pacific Coast and New York

I'm not saying it's likely, I'm saying it's what I'd love to see.

[mainiac]

That never happened in the past and people were less polarized back then.  People's opinions on social issues tell you more about their issue on fiscal issues then it used to be.

[RedKing]

That's kinda the point. People are more polarized, and they're polarizing in a variety of directions.

The marriage of social conservatism and fiscal conservatism that Reagan brought about in 1980 has been long overdue for a divorce. Building an maintaing a theocracy and legislating heavy-handed morality comes with a pricetag. Vice versa, if all you care about is ensuring a free market and low taxes, that includes allowing things like the porn industry, the alcohol industry and gambling to flourish.

Look at the history of the Prohibition Party. They never elected a President or a Senator, but they did send at least one person to Congress, one Governor of Florida won as a Prohibitionist after losing the Democratic primary (then switched his allegiance back to Democrat), and they were enough of a force in the 1910s to affect national politics and get the 18th Amendment passed. They were social progressives (in the sense of actinng towards a change in the status quo for what they saw as the communal good), but distinct from the "progressive" party of the time, the Republican party. They worked in alliance with the Republican Party at times, but always stayed seperate from it and frequently ran their own candidates in state and Federal elections.

Or look at the 1912 election, when the Republican party basically split in half, and the breakaway half (Teddy Roosevelt's Progressive Party) actually fared better than the rump GOP left behind.

[Heron TSG]

Actually, the Democratic-Republican party once split. The southern conservatives formed the Democratic party. The northern progressives formed the Republican party. (They flip-flopped atwixt the World Wars.)

[nenjin]

To note, the Republican party didn't emerge until the Civil War, long after the Democratic-Republican split. The Republican Party came out of the split in the Whig party over slavery issues.

[jester]

You are going to have to kill the current system anyway to cut down on the corruption, adding in other major changes at the same time doesnt seem to be a huge stretch

[mainiac]

Actually, the Democratic-Republican party once split. The southern conservatives formed the Democratic party. The northern progressives formed the Republican party. (They flip-flopped atwixt the World Wars.)

Yes, and this coincided with the death of the whig party.  There can only be two.

That's kinda the point. People are more polarized, and they're polarizing in a variety of directions.

No they really aren't.  Less then 10% of the electorate are real swing voters at this point.  A recent poll found that only 7% of the electorate are actually up for grabs.  People's opinions on social issues very strongly correlate with their opinions on fiscal issues and vice-versa.  Even our neighborhoods are becoming increasingly polarized as geography increasingly determines which of the two camps we fall into.

Under these conditions a third party isn't going to go far.  The L+ voters do better off electorally by supporting the L party.  The C+ does best supporting the C party.  The Ls and Cs occasionally throw the wings a bone.

Edit: this premise might be tested though, as it looks like Sanatorum just had a really good night in the 3 caucuses just held.  Maybe the C+ is splitting from the C.

[G-Flex]

Wait. There's an L party in the US now? That's news to me.

[RedKing]

Oh hey, election results!

AP has called Minnesota and Missouri (which, just to remind folks, is a totally meaningless popularity contest) for Santorum.

Minnesota (with 82% reporting)
Santorum: 45%
Paul: 27%
Romney: 17%
Gingrich: 11%

Missouri (with 99% reporting)
Santorum: 55%
Romney: 25%
Paul: 12%

Either Gingrich wasn't on the not-really-a-ballot, or he is damn unpopular.

Colorado is still too close to call (53% reporting)
Romney: 39%
Santorum: 35%
Gingrich: 13%
Paul: 13%


This is a surprise. Romney was expected to take Colorado rather handily. He's actually overperforming his poll numbers slightly, but Santorum is way outperforming his poll numbers (in all three states, really). Either his ground game has been much better than people realized, or he's benefitting indirectly from the Romney-Gingrich dustups, as people fall away from Romney but can't stomach Newt and are latching onto Santorum as their fallback option.

I don't see it happening, but if Gingrich were to drop out and endorse Santorum at this point...this could be a nightmare for Romney (and of course, Team Obama would be giddy as schoolchildren on a snow day if Santorum were to win the nomination).

EDIT: Also, props to Team Paul for outperforming in Minnesota. 2nd place finish means we will see no concession speeches from Dr. Paul tonight. And the relentless Bataan Death March to the nomination continues for all four candidates...

DOUBLE-EDIT: One reason that Colorado is still very much up for grabs is that Colorado Springs (home to Focus on the Family and the Air Force Academy, and extremely friendly to evangelical social conservatives) hasn't reported in yet at all. That could be a big chunk of votes for Santorum.


UPDATE: 70% reporting now, and Santorum is within 150 votes of Romney. And still no Colorado Springs. I'm gonna go ahead and say that Santorum makes a clean sweep of all three states. All the remaining counties to report in are rural (where Romney typically fares poorly) with the exception of Colorado Springs, which I think will go hard for Santorum. Losing Colorado is a bigtime embarassment for Team Romney, if I'm right.

[thegoatgod_pan]

Santorum wins three states including my own, Colorado...hilarious. In the general election, Colorado Springs might vote him, but Boulder will not in a hundred million years, nor would Denver, nor would the libertarian hillfolk.

If Santorum keeps at it he will derail Romney's already low chances for good.

[RedKing]

82% in, and Santorum is ahead by 599 votes. And STILL no Colorado Springs. It's gonna be a hat trick night, folks.

Looking ahead, if Santorum can keep the momentum up between now and Super Tuesday....dear Gott im Himmel, I think he's got a chance to win the whole thing. The states coming up on the slate in March are very favorable to Santorum and unfavorable to Romney. It's a lot of Deep South and Midwestern states, friendly to Bible-thumpers, not so friendly to rich urbanite Mormons. Gonna be a wild ride.


UPDATE: It's over. Santorum wins Colorado. Final tally:

Santorum: 40%
Romney: 35%
Gingrich: 13%
Paul: 12%

MAJOR bad night for Romney. Not so much in terms of the total delegate count, but for the questions it raises about Romney's support in flyover country, the heart of the Republican base. And, it's like a 1.21 gigawatt jolt in the arm for Rick Santorum's campaign, which is suddenly surging and positioning him back in the position of chief alternative to Romney.

[Heron TSG]

If Gingrich and Santorum teamed up, I think they could steal the nomination. I also think that people would be pouring out of the woodwork to vote Obama, just to prevent that nightmare.