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[GlyphGryph]

So, potentially... potentially the Citizens United decision might turn out to be a GOOD thing?

[RedKing]

So in other words, if you allow people to fling enough shit, eventually they'll drown in it?

Exxxxxcellent.

[mainiac]

I think that if Obama was smart he would just close down his PAC entirely at this point.  He will have plenty of money through conventional sources.  The optics of having one guy getting bankrolled by millionaires and the other guy bankrolled by the middle class would be priceless.

[Taniec]

Thread too long; didn't read.

Ron Paul is growing on me. Why?

He follows the Austrian School of economic thought, which at the moment, I agree with most in regards to monetary and fiscal policy. To note, I have a background in Economics and I feel the Austrian School does the best at explaining why business cycles happen...and at the simplest level...because of over expansion of credit. Instead, the Keynesians believe in the notion of "shit happens", partially due to animal spirit influence on market forces. I have a difficult time believing modern Keynesians still believe that, but Keyne himself attributed business cycles to spirits. But still, a lot of economists and financial people like to say recessions are just "natural" but they don't know the cause, and frankly I don't believe it. An action has to trigger a boom or a bust, just like getting punched in the face will give me a bruise.

That alone makes me like him over any other GOP candidate. Gingrich is nuts. Man is just nuts and nuts. Romney has no backbone and is just plain awkward. Says he won't release his tax information....one month later....he releases his tax records. Cant wait to see what he'll do with our nuclear and military secrets when dealing with foreign leaders. Nukes for all!

I seriously don't even feel like voting because this presidential race has THE WORST bunch of runners I have ever seen/read about. The GOP...my god. I feel like it's American Idol mixed with some kind of sick MTV reality show. And to note, my views lean more toward the right and I voted for Obama last time.

Then again, there are a lot of people who contributed to this thread who are much more intelligent when it comes to politics and such and I could be full of crap. To be honest, I hate how our presidential election has turned into an entertainment event. The youtube debates, Obama literally skyping with potential voters, the whole debacle. Bleh. If they would just do their jobs and stop all this BS, then I wouldn't be so cynical about the entire process.

EDIT: I just read he is opposed to the federal reserve system. And you know....it is kind of helpful. I don't know what to think anymore!!! 

[Luke_Prowler]

What's wrong with Obama talking to voters? I thought on of the problems people had with politicians was them not talking directly

[Capntastic]

You know that like, presidents all the way back through the ages used to like, go town to town and talk to constituents?  This is where we get the term stump speech.  If you're going to dismiss 'skyping with people' out of hand as tawdry entertainment, then I really don't know what to say.

[Taniec]

Sorry. I should have clarified that him talking to people whether through technological or physical means is great, but I don't enjoy the fact that Obama can't do it without CNN in his face. I guess that's a pretty weird view point.

[G-Flex]

Thread too long; didn't read.

Ron Paul is growing on me. Why?

Because you're not a fan of living in a country as much as living in a loosely-organized collection of fiefdoms controlled by robber barons who can freely violate your constitutional rights on a whim with no federal oversight?

Instead, the Keynesians believe in the notion of "shit happens", partially due to animal spirit influence on market forces. I have a difficult time believing modern Keynesians still believe that, but Keyne himself attributed business cycles to spirits.

If you really think any modern economist thinks like that, then your "background in Economics" is surprisingly limited and alien. In fact, I'd like to see some kind of source that any mainstream school of economics believes in the influence of "spirits".

But still, a lot of economists and financial people like to say recessions are just "natural" but they don't know the cause, and frankly I don't believe it. An action has to trigger a boom or a bust, just like getting punched in the face will give me a bruise.

Then you sound like you'd prefer a method of studying economics that is at least halfway empirical or scientific, as opposed to the austrian school, which rejects such methods.

[Capntastic]

I'm going to drop a quote by Murray Rothbard, one of the big dudes in the Austrian school of economics, just so people who aren't "in the know" can get an idea of what Taniec is implicitly supporting:

"Supposedly "humanitarian" child labor laws have systematically forcibly prevented children from entering the labor force, thereby privileging their adult competitors."

His worldview only makes sense if you see literally every human interaction as a competition, without empathy of any sort.  It is unethical to allow children, who are demonstrably not rational actors, the 'right' to 'enter the labor force'. 

[Glowcat]

If you really think any modern economist thinks like that, then your "background in Economics" is surprisingly limited and alien. In fact, I'd like to see some kind of source that any mainstream school of economics believes in the influence of "spirits".

I'm not sure about alien. I've heard his view once or twice in libertarian echo chambers, and they're very much earthlings. /silly

[Taniec]

Yikes, my college education must have failed me.

1. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money by Keynes discusses the idea of animal spirits in correlation with consumer confidence. He discusses that trust and confidence in the market is affected by outside animal influences. It isn't a MAJOR part of the book, however it is mentioned. He mentions that people like to act out of action, rather than "do the math" to determine benefits or probabilities.

2. To be fair, just because the Austrian School isn't known for being as mathematically heavy as other schools of thought (Many Austrians flat out reject empirical evidence), doesn't mean that math is thrown right out the window for all of those in line with Austrian thought. I'm not smart enough to win a nobel prize or develop my own sophisticated model, but of all the schools of thought that try to explain inflation, recessions, views on monetary and fiscal policy, the Austrian view makes the most sense to me. That is subject to change.

3. I prefer a utopian paradise, in which sexual orgies are the norm and my seed can be spread freely. Alas...such a day may never come.

[Capntastic]

animal spirits

Many Austrians flat out reject empirical evidence

I think we've established we don't need to discredit this line of thought any more.

[G-Flex]

1. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money by Keynes discusses the idea of animal spirits in correlation with consumer confidence. He discusses that trust and confidence in the market is affected by outside animal influences. It isn't a MAJOR part of the book, however it is mentioned. He mentions that people like to act out of action, rather than "do the math" to determine benefits or probabilities.

You're ridiculously confused about what "animal spirit" even means in this case. It's not about outside influences. It's not about literal "spirits". It's about emotional and impulse decision-making. It has absolutely nothing to do with "outside animal influences" or literal spirits of any kind. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits_%28Keynes%29

3. I prefer a utopian paradise, in which sexual orgies are the norm and my seed can be spread freely. Alas...such a day may never come.

oh my god where did this even come from

[jester]

Economics is voodoo anyway, whats wrong with blaming things on animal spirits?

[mainiac]

Hella ninja'd...

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Describing Keynesian economics explanation of business cycles as "shit happens, partly due to animal spirits" is ignoring the rigorous treatment of markets and most importantly interest rates that Keynesian economics is all about.  Believe it or not but bad loans happen in a Keynesian world view as well.  Yes, single huge events can cause recessions in a Keynesian view.  The 1929 crash, I should not have to remind you, was the pressing conundrum that Keynesian economic was invented to answer.

Honestly if you want the shit happens side, it's among the real business cycle people.  Keynesians and their offshoots not only have explanations for recessions but they have explanations for several different kinds of recessions.  Keynesians try not to claim omniscience but they do offer quite a bit of explanation.

If you have a background in economics then I present you with this situation which presents dilemma's for the Austrian world view:

Currently and for quite some time the interest rates on some US treasury bonds are at historically low rates (i.e. near to zero after inflation) and inflation remains low according to every broad price index.  This is even as the Federal Reserve has massively increased the money supply and the Treasury has taken on a number of new loans.  The Keynesian explanation is simple: spending is depressed which keeps inflation down and lowers the price for safe like US treasury bonds, lower money velocity prevents the usual equilibrium from being restored.

Two questions for the Austrian school:
a) How can there be so little inflation when the money stock has increased so much?  How does this reconcile with the Austrian belief that the value of money is directly tied to the quantity of money and size of the economy?
b) Why are US treasury bonds selling for historically low rates when our finances are in far worse shape then say, 1995?  Remember, don't answer this with common sense.  Answer it with Austrian school logic.

I could understand how one might see the appeal of the neoclassical school when the economy is running at full capacity.  But the economy is obviously not running at full capacity and it shows up in a thousand different ways.  Why then would you embrace a school of thought that assumes that the economy is running at full capacity at all times?

These are not minor quibbles.  How you view the points I raised decides which of two completely divergent courses of action you want to take.  In the UK they have tried the Austrian solution and the British economy is currently experiencing the worst recession in the history of British industry.  Yes, they're doing even worse in terms of percentage of GDP lost then they were in the Great Depression.