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[mainiac]

Gingrich's infidelity has been known a long time.  GOP primary voters will never hold this against him because while he was doing it he was leading the republican revolution.

[nenjin]

He makes John Edwards look like an underachiever in the infidelity championships.

[Aqizzar]

Something I just learned about.  Today is an auspicious day in the history of political campaigning.  As we go into the South Carolina primary, wherein Newt Gingrich is punching his way to the top through a storm of resurfacing personal shenanigans, whilst all and sundry complain about the power of Super PACs to overturning polling in days even as they embrace their dark gifts, January 21st marks both the fifteenth anniversary (or just about) of Newt Ginrich's House committee conviction of financial impropriety, and the second anniversary of the Citizens United decision that created the Super PAC.

Its amazing what changes and doesn't change over time.  Including my ability to toot my own horn.

[RedKing]

Looks like I was off about the results time. 6pm was merely when CNN would start their coverage. Polls don't actually close until 7pm (about two minutes from now).

Based on the latest polls, it could be anything from a photo-finish tie to Gingrich stomping Romney by 10+ percentage points. If Santorum overachieves here, Ron Paul may face his first finish out of the top 3. The other interesting bit will be to see how much Stephen Colbert can wreak havoc with things. If Herman Cain winds up pulling 10% or more and/or beating out of the legitimate (and I use the word with some hesitation) candidates, Colbert is going to be front-page news and you're going to see a lot of GOP talking heads indignant that he's "making a mockery of our political system" (as has already been charged by some). When in fact, he and Jon Stewart are merely holding a floodlight to the mockery that it already is.

[Zrk2]

When in fact, he and Jon Stewart are merely holding a floodlight to the mockery that it already is.

You win ALL the internet cookies. America, how the fuck did you end up like this? From one of the greatest collections of minds the world has ever seen to a new-age Rome overwhelmed by barbarians in a little over 200 years.

[darkflagrance]

When in fact, he and Jon Stewart are merely holding a floodlight to the mockery that it already is.

You win ALL the internet cookies. America, how the fuck did you end up like this? From one of the greatest collections of minds the world has ever seen to a new-age Rome overwhelmed by barbarians in a little over 200 years.

At least we don't have mobs clubbing down tribunes in the streets yet. Although to be fair, that might actually be an improvement over the current state of affairs...

[Osmosis Jones]

You win ALL the internet cookies. America, how the fuck did you end up like this? From one of the greatest collections of minds the world has ever seen to a new-age Rome overwhelmed by barbarians in a little over 200 years.

A consumerist based society, bread and circuses cheap beer and fox news?

More seriously, a big part of it actually came from the cold war; extreme opposition to traditionally 'liberal' ideas, an increased emphasis on christian religion and the entrenchment of capitalism as some holy ideal were all started or at least strongly magnified as a reaction against those Godless Commie bastards (TM).

[Aqizzar]

Alright, that's enough of that now.

With a quarter of the vote totaled, Gingrich stands at 45k, Romney 29k, Santorum 19k, Paul 14k, and the "others" have not been wholly released.  Because South Carolina works on a district-by-district proportion, Gingrich has 13 of SC's 25 delegates already.

By the way, I urge people to try to stomach Romney's "concession" speech.  His history as a venture capitalist is no longer about "jobs" per se, so much as "success" and "personal liberty", and Republicans "who take up the weapons of the Left will them used against us".  And I have never seen a more gut-wrenching script of applause breaks.

[Glowcat]

I suppose it's not entirely unexpected that he'd do well in his home state where he'd put his hopes since at least Iowa.

[RedKing]

And here's the crosstabs on the exit polling.

Not much that isn't common sense or that we haven't seen before. Rich, educated Republicans went for Romney, young people went for Paul, the blue-collar sixpackers and Tea Partiers went for Gingrich. Santorum was second fiddle to Newt even among his own natural base: born-again Evangelicals who care about religion and want to ban abortion. The only ares where Rick outperformed was for people whom abortion is the single strongest issue (only 8% of the total) and/or people whose single most important candidate quality was a strong moral character (18% of total). It should noted that even 6% of those folks voted Gingrich.

A majority of voters seemed to indicate that the debates were important to their decision, and of those, Gingrich took the lion's share. So since he "won" the debates by attacking everyone who dared question him, and playing the victim card hard....yeah, you know what to expect from here on out.



Geographically, Romney's winning the urban areas. Problem being, this is South Carolina. There's basically two cities -- Columbia and Charleston. Everything in between is lightly populated rural area or small cities at best (<50,000 population). And Gingrich is absolutely cleaning up there.

@Glowcat: Gingrich is from Georgia, not South Carolina. It's right next-door, but it is a distinction.


EDIT: I'll just add that Ron Paul does indeed look headed for his first finish outside the top 3. Not a huge surprise (SC doesn't have a strong Libertarian streak, and *does* have a strong "God-and-guns" streak) but still has to be disappointing.

[Glowcat]

@Glowcat: Gingrich is from Georgia, not South Carolina. It's right next-door, but it is a distinction.

Darn. 18 hours awake and poor memory tends to blur information together.

[RedKing]

70% or so reporting, and Gingrich has a commanding win. 40% to Romney's 26% and Santorum's 18%.

One of the potential stories out of this...what happened to the Colbert/Cain votes? "Other" is only at 4200 votes, and Rick Perry got about 1600. Considering that Colbert was polling as high as 13% just a week or so ago...I'm going to want to see the final breakdown to see how many Cain got. If he winds up with no votes, and the state GOP says "Oh, well we threw those out because we didn't like some comedian trying to cause havoc with our primary", then all hell is going to break loose because you can't do that. And I can totally see the South Carolina GOP being stupid enough to have done that.

[Aqizzar]

It is also entirely possible that a bunch of people said, oh yeah I'm voting for Colbert, and either just didn't go vote or voted for a "real" candidate once they got there.  In the 2006 governor's race here in Texas, Kinky Friedman was polling something like 25-30% right up until the election, and got a whopping 10%.  "Joke" candidates tend to poll well, because people who get polled and don't give a shit or probably won't vote can say they're for the joke instead of Undecided.

[Osmosis Jones]

If he winds up with no votes, and the state GOP says "Oh, well we threw those out because we didn't like some comedian trying to cause havoc with our primary", then all hell is going to break loose because you can't do that. And I can totally see the South Carolina GOP being stupid enough to have done that.

Please. Please let this happen. The hilarity that ensues will be deliious. Plus, there's a good chance that Colbert will actually get angry, and hell hath no fury like a satirist scorned.

[GlyphGryph]

The other bit is a lot of people who would have voted for Colbert might not have known what to do when they realized he wasn't on the ballot!

Not everyone who supports the guy watches every episode of his show, after all.