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Author Topic: American Election Megathread - It's Over  (Read 763381 times)

scriver

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #735 on: January 10, 2012, 06:13:03 pm »

I imagine it to go something like:

"And to decrease the economic deficit I will introduce measures such as FACEPUNCH!"

...and then you suddenly find a sword in your stomach.
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palsch

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #736 on: January 10, 2012, 07:39:50 pm »

I've been seeing a number of  reports that primary turnout is way down compared to 2008. Dunno if it's a sign of voter apathy about the field of candidates, or resignation that Obama is getting four more years (thanks to the field of candidates).
Iowa was slightly up. I can't find any extrapolated numbers for NH yet (given the polls aren't all closed yet), but predictions were record turnout thanks to global warming unseasonably good weather. There were a few rumours that confused rumours about voter ID laws might chase some people away.

Of course, Iowa was predicted to have massive turnout which is why the article treated a record high as a fizzle. If that happens in NH as well it could set up a nasty narrative. It's all about expectations.
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #737 on: January 10, 2012, 07:52:00 pm »

It's game time! As the above poster mentioned, CNN is saying record turnout. Guess people waited till the afternoon to get their vote on.

With 7% reporting (so basically, just pissing in the wind and readin' tea leaves here), it's:

36% - Romney
25% - Paul
15% - Huntsman
11% - Gingrich
10% - Santorum
1% - Perry
Free drink w/ purchase of next Happy Meal - Roemer


Interesting developments today as Ron Paul came out defending Romney's recent comments about "liking to fire people" and his record at Bain Capital. Gentleman's agreement to band together against Gingrich, Perry et. al?


EDIT: Also, New Hampshire only has 10 counties, so this should be a mercifully short period of punditry and number-crunching. At least until the "what does it all mean?" phase. Which will go on from the end of the vote count until at least South Carolina.


DOUBLE-EDIT: It is also worth knowing (okay, not really) that there are 30 candidates on the primary ballot in NH, plus the write-in option. Who the hell are all these people? Well, let's just say they make Buddy Roemer look like Kim Kardashian in terms of name recognition. Hell, if I'd have known it was that easy, I'd have gotten on the ballot myself. There is one guy from North Carolina running, but considering his platform is essentially "I'm an Anti-Semite, and I approve this message, you commie Jewbag" I'm really glad nobody knows about that fact.  ::)
« Last Edit: January 10, 2012, 08:04:46 pm by RedKing »
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Aqizzar

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #738 on: January 10, 2012, 08:08:12 pm »

As we wait for the New Hampshire vote to come in (last polls closed a few minutes ago, early count showing Romney under 40%, Huntsmann in a commanding third), I think we should all take a moment to reflect on the incredible explosion of people attacking Mitt Romney for his history with Bain Capital.

Everyone, absolutely everyone, was expecting that the main thrust against Romney from his fellow Republican candidates would be the Massachusetts healthcare mandate, and his relatively moderate history in the one office he's held.  In the last few days, it's been his career as a venture capitalist, culminating in what could be two of the defining creations of this election.  One is the half-hour video produced by a pro-Gingrich PAC interviewing people who worked at companies Bain Capital bought, who were subsequently laid off.  It could be a production by MoveOn for the tenor.

And the other was Romney's response to it.  Speaking to the local Chamber of Commerce (businessmen all), Romney was trying to make an argument against state-ist economics, and the virtues of the free market, about how business thrives when you have the power to refuse a supplier and take your business elsewhere (specifically insurance providers).  And in the middle of this, the section of Romney's brain that wants him to sound agreeable and ingratiating at all times no matter how inappropriate made him glibly blurt out, "I like being able to fire people."  He meant "fire" an insurance company from supplying a business, but all context disappears when you hear it said, and Google already relables it "I like firing people".

What makes it significant is how the rest of the Republican field has reacted to it.  Rick Perry's campaign released a ringtone of the line on repeat, labeling him a "vulture capitalist"; Santorum said nobody wants to vote a guy who reminds you of your boss; fake "Pink Slips" being handed out around the state, and the rest of the field have been bashing away in time, especially Gingrich.  For anyone who's had the slightest conception of American politics prior to Wednesday, this is jawdropping.  It makes sense in the moment of course, since especially in a bad economy no candidate wants to sound they're in favor of firing people; talk job-creation job-creation all day long (whatever it may be code for that day).  But firing people is inherent to the process of management, especially venture capitalism.  In any other time, any of these same candidates, if they weren't running against Romney, would be lauding him for his appreciation of the hard realities of running a business, declaring it a fine mark of executive experience and that America needs a realistic President like that.  Objection would be met with the reminder that you have to break a few eggs to make an omelet, and calling into question any element of venture capitalism, down to its philosophical underpinnings of efficiency, would be called singing the praises of Chairman Mao.

In this of all years, in this of all races, we're seeing Republican candidates piling onto one of their own for, essentially, being too business savvy.  Somewhere in Zuccotti Park, there's a shiftless art-major reading the story on his iPhone and thinking, "Are we winning?"  This is going to be a wild race, especially if this becomes Romney's Dean-Scream.
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #739 on: January 10, 2012, 08:13:18 pm »

Iknorite? Cue the delicious, syrupy irony of Republicans savaging Romney for being....a capitalist.
 
Oh. My. God. We....we finally did. We got the GOP to go so fucking over the edge that they came out the other side. If Santorum and Perry sing Kumbaya while knitting sweaters out of organic hemp, imma lose it.

14% reporting now. AP has called the race for Romney (big surprise there), but his share is settling in around 35%. Ron Paul around 24-25% with a solid grip on 2nd. Huntsman with 17.5%, solidly in 3rd. Gingrich is barely in double-digits, leading Santorum by about 300 votes. How the #4 spot spins out could be interesting but I don't see a big shift happening there.

So far, here's my take:

Romney performing pretty much about where he's expected to (although I saw Gingrich making a laughable attempt to inflate the expectations by telling CNN that anything below 50% should call into question Romney's front-runner status). Ron Paul continues to establish himself as a legitimate contender (and continues to net some delegates). Huntsman's expected top-3 finish gives him some momentum and a chance to get into the national spotlight finally. Gingrich, if he stays above 10% and finishes above Santorum, keeps himself alive at least until South Carolina. Santorum....meh, no real loss because he wasn't expected to do all that hot anyways. Perhaps a slight underperform versus the recent polls. Perry...he's too busy remembering which side won the Alamo.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2012, 08:19:52 pm by RedKing »
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palsch

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #740 on: January 10, 2012, 08:14:22 pm »

The big reference as far as I care;

Romney, 2008;
75,546 votes, 32.17%

From Iowa;
2008: 30,021 votes, 25.19%
2012: 30,015 votes, 24.55%

Right now he really should see a decent increase in both percent and vote total. If he doesn't then the easy narrative is that he simply can't convert any new voters even with four years campaigning and massive investment.

Right now he is around 35-6% and it looks like that might stick. I'd have said that's a poor result, particularly compared to the predictions. The 538 projection, based on the best analysis of the polls was 38.5%. More than two percent down on that is a horrid performance and suggests that the end trend in the polls was massively significant.

And MSNBC have just projected Ron Paul as second. Big boost for Romney if that holds.

CNN told that Huntsman won't drop out even though he came third in his big target state. SC is probably his second chance. Some interesting discussions about coalitions, with something about a discussion between Santorum and Gingrich that I didn't catch entirely.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2012, 08:22:49 pm by palsch »
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #741 on: January 10, 2012, 08:31:41 pm »

I think the other interesting comparison with 2008 might be whatever Santorum ends up with vs. Mike Huckabee's 11.1% in 2008. Santorum is essentially running unopposed as the social conservative up here what with Perry's no-show.
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Remember, knowledge is power. The power to make other people feel stupid.
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #742 on: January 10, 2012, 08:37:48 pm »

With 22% reporting, no real movement for the top 3, but Santorum has closed to within less than 100 votes of Gingrich. If Santorum takes #4, that's a victory for him and a real psychological blow to Gingrich's campaign.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #743 on: January 10, 2012, 08:38:12 pm »

It really is sad about Buddy Roemer. If he were the GOP's candidate for President I would seriously consider voting for him.
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scriver

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #744 on: January 10, 2012, 08:41:12 pm »

In this of all years, in this of all races, we're seeing Republican candidates piling onto one of their own for, essentially, being too business savvy.  Somewhere in Zuccotti Park, there's a shiftless art-major reading the story on his iPhone and thinking, "Are we winning?"  This is going to be a wild race, especially if this becomes Romney's Dean-Scream.

I hadn't thought of it that way. Interesting. I know what I'm gonna bring up whenever I talk to my fellow Swedish pseudointellectuals about the Amelection next.
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #745 on: January 10, 2012, 08:41:30 pm »

It really is sad about Buddy Roemer. If he were the GOP's candidate for President I would seriously consider voting for him.
He's at least beating all write-in votes for right now. And Bachmann and Cain (he actually lost to Cain in Iowa). I'm still hoping he can beat Perry.

EDIT: Santorum is within 70 votes of Gingrich, apparently in part due to the small town of Roxbury (pop. 229) where he took a walloping 56% of the vote (or...50 votes). Note to self: Roxbuy is on the list of scenic New England towns I do *not* want to set foot in...
« Last Edit: January 10, 2012, 08:45:43 pm by RedKing »
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palsch

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #746 on: January 10, 2012, 08:43:09 pm »

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Aqizzar

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #747 on: January 10, 2012, 08:58:27 pm »

(response to troll removed)

In this of all years, in this of all races, we're seeing Republican candidates piling onto one of their own for, essentially, being too business savvy.  Somewhere in Zuccotti Park, there's a shiftless art-major reading the story on his iPhone and thinking, "Are we winning?"  This is going to be a wild race, especially if this becomes Romney's Dean-Scream.

I hadn't thought of it that way. Interesting. I know what I'm gonna bring up whenever I talk to my fellow Swedish pseudointellectuals about the Amelection next.

Well, before you go telling anyone in Europe that the American right-wing is about to become ideologically protectionist, I would say that it's probably not that deep a change in thought.  It's about winning an election first and foremost, and when the leading candidate says something that exemplifies amoral capitalism (not immoral, amoral) at a time when a lot of people are mad at "big business" for being out of work or losing benefits, your instinct is to pounce.  He basically said something so easy to attack that even a plutocrat like Gingrich has to make what would be by any measure a rabidly populist economic appeal.

How long it lasts is more a question of Romney's polling than the Republican party's platform, but certainly if Romney does become the Republican nominee (as it looks likely he will), and people's perceptions of the economy don't change between now and November (including the rather strong majority of people who blame "business" and "wall street" and "republicans" over President Obama for their economic insecurities), Romney is going to have his work cut out for him.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2012, 09:24:02 pm by Toady One »
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #748 on: January 10, 2012, 09:04:19 pm »

Exit poll time!

Rather that detail out what you can read yourself, let me just sum up:

Voters picked Romney because they want to beat Obama, think the economy is the issue to do it on, and think Romney would be the best to do that to him.

Ron Paul got the younger,  first-time voters who think *he* can beat Obama (he can't).

Huntsman got a lot of crossover Dem support and anti Tea Party support, and people picked him because they think he had the experience that the others lack (and they're not thrilled with the GOP field and are probably looking to him as yet another last best hope)

Santorum got votes purely for one thing: abortion rights (or the hope for the lack thereof).

Gingrich seems to have gotten the bulk of his votes from people who consider themselves staunch conservatives who likely just don't see Romney as conservative enough.

Perry got votes from....people who like brisket and guns? Hell if I know, he didn't get more than 3% of *any* crosstab.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2012, 09:06:32 pm by RedKing »
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Remember, knowledge is power. The power to make other people feel stupid.
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palsch

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #749 on: January 10, 2012, 09:05:38 pm »

Nate Silver on the turnout.
Quote
With 85 of 301 precincts reporting, 52,191 voters have cast a ballot in the Republican primary so far. That projects to about 185,000 votes statewide, as compared with about 240,000 votes in the Republican primary in 2008.

The drop-off in turnout looks worse for Republicans since a higher fraction of voters - about half this year, compared to 37 percent in 2008 - are independents. That means that turnout among registered Republicans could alone be off by nearly 40 percent from 2008.
And just above that, Perry still refusing to drop out.
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