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[Frumple]

A bit of light hearted news for America. Free ponies!

Ah, actually looked at that. I must say, regardless as to what he was actually saying (I had sound muted), that one has the best hat I've seen yet. Snappiest dresser, too. This thing'd be a whole lot more interesting if that was the official uniform of all presidential candidates. Also be easier to actually evaluate people on what they're saying than the pony show they're trying to run, as pretty much no one would look respectable.

[Sirus]

A bit of light hearted news for America. Free ponies!

Ah, actually looked at that. I must say, regardless as to what he was actually saying (I had sound muted), that one has the best hat I've seen yet. Snappiest dresser, too. This thing'd be a whole lot more interesting if that was the official uniform of all presidential candidates. Also be easier to actually evaluate people on what they're saying than the pony show they're trying to run, as pretty much no one would look respectable.

He basically stated that he would be a benevolent dictator. With mandatory tooth-brushing laws.

[RedKing]

A bit of light hearted news for America. Free ponies!

Ah, actually looked at that. I must say, regardless as to what he was actually saying (I had sound muted), that one has the best hat I've seen yet. Snappiest dresser, too. This thing'd be a whole lot more interesting if that was the official uniform of all presidential candidates. Also be easier to actually evaluate people on what they're saying than the pony show they're trying to run, as pretty much no one would look respectable.

....there may be something to that idea. During campaign season, all candidates must appear at all public events in the same ridiculous looking outfit. Possibly an orange prison jumpsuit?

[Loud Whispers]

A bit of light hearted news for America. Free ponies!

Ah, actually looked at that. I must say, regardless as to what he was actually saying (I had sound muted), that one has the best hat I've seen yet. Snappiest dresser, too. This thing'd be a whole lot more interesting if that was the official uniform of all presidential candidates. Also be easier to actually evaluate people on what they're saying than the pony show they're trying to run, as pretty much no one would look respectable.

He basically stated that he would be a benevolent dictator. With mandatory tooth-brushing laws.

Listen to what he actually says, he perfectly parodies modern politics in a nutshell.
Clinches? Check. Stupendous attire? Check. False promises to targeted voters? Check. Appeal from controversial topics? Check.

What can this guy not do?

[palsch]

....there may be something to that idea. During campaign season, all candidates must appear at all public events in the same ridiculous looking outfit. Possibly an orange prison jumpsuit?

The best one I've heard is a jumpsuit with sponsor logos, like NASCAR or F1 drivers.

In other news;

Mitt Romney's teenage Vietnam protest photos have been brought to light.

[Aqizzar]

Holy. Crap.  Mitt Romney cosplaying a hippie, carrying pro-draft signs?  Y'know, I might start to believe him when he says he's not really a politician, he clearly didn't expect to be one until 1994.

Okaaaay....so, how 'bout them primaries?!

[monster truck announcer voice]
TUESDAY TUESDAY TUESDAY!! It's the 2012 GOP New Hampshire Primaries!
The state where "Live Free Or Die" isn't just a threat, it's a motto!

SEE.....the Rominator, fighting to defend his home turf!
SEE.....Rick "Frothy" Santorum, as he brings his Christian Sharia tour to face the Ring of Syrup!
SEE.....actual Jon "Bigfoot" Huntsman sightings!
SEE....."Nitro" Newt Gingrich trying to remain relevant!
SEE.....Rick "F**k all y'all Yankees, I'm in South Carolina" Perry.....or not, because he's not even bothering to show up.
[/voice]

So to sum up:
Romney has to win big to meet expectations
Santorum vs. Huntsman to stay alive
Gingrich and Perry probably dead men walking

Couldn't have put it better myself, especially the contest for third-place between the high-concept standard bearers of Huntsman and Santorum.  I don't even know who to root for - Huntsman deserves the respect, but I'd love to see Santorum stay on stage.  I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we see one of them knock Ron Paul down into third-place - New Hampshire has always been Paul's blossom orchid, not least because if you go there and look around, most of the Paul supporters you'll find don't live in the state.

I suspect if Huntsman manages to stay in the top-three, especially if he upsets Paul, he'll become the new Anti-Romney as Gingrich supporters flee to him in droves.  Santorum will still be in the race going into South Carolina, as the last cultural conservative standing now that even the rest of Dixie has come to see what an ass he is.  But if Santorum blocks out Huntsman, he'll be gone, and Gingrich will keep fighting to stay alive in South Carolina as the race rapidly narrows into Romney, Santorum, and Paul.

[RedKing]

I have a hard time picturing Huntsman becoming the Anti-Romney, simply because from what I can tell most of the social conservatives see him as Romney Lite. Or possibly Romney without the flip-flopping. I don't think the social conservatives will ever cleave to Huntsman just to ward off Romney. If it came down to that, they'd just abstain all together and start railing about how God is going to rain down fire and brimstone after the election because the GOP has lost its way or some shit (I'll leave it to Pat Robertson to come up with the specifics).

Huntsman's only real hope is that he can draw enough of the Gingrich and Romney camps that are fed up with those candidate's own respective baggages and see him as a "close enough" version of what they liked about Gingrich/Romney in the first place. I don't think you'll see too many Ron Paul supporters switch over, as Paul steadily tacks towards the xenophobia/isolationist stance and Huntsman stakes out a much more engaged foreign policy stance. Jon's really screwed in that respect -- he'll never be able to get much draw from the social conservatives or the libertarian/paleoconservatives. He's got to rely on the fiscal conservatives, moderates and independents, who aren't exactly the strongest faction of the party of late. Meanwhile he has to also hope that the Santorum and Paul camps remain at arm's length and don't form an unholy alliance against him (Romney has to worry about this as well, but he's got a much bigger cushion in the polls to help absorb any attacks).

It's definitely going to be interesting. If Romney cleans house here and then wins SC with 30% or better, this thing could be over before it really got started. Which might actually be good for the Democrats in a way -- if the primary race seems to be over after the first 3-4 states, there's going to be a LOT of disenchanted Republicans who are going to feel like they got Romney foisted on them thanks to a small handful of people without their having any say in the matter. Might be a good time for Ron Paul to make a 3rd party bid or even (longshot, but...) some kind of social conservative rebellion within the party leading to a 3rd party bid by the likes of Santorum under a "Tea Party for Jesus" banner. Wouldn't THAT be a hoot?

Also....AM radio host Mark Levin and some other conservative activists reportedly have a message for Ron Paul:
Make a third-party bid, and we'll leave a horse's head in your son's Senate race. 

[GlyphGryph]

I'd love for Paul to start making third party bids. The Republicans might actually consider switching to an AV system at that point.

[Leafsnail]

So uh... I take it that Mark Levin is massively popular and influential in Kentucky, and that his threat will leave Rand Paul quivering in terror and not shaking his head in slight bemusement?

[mainiac]

I don't see this race ending quickly.  Suppose Romney sweeps N.H. and South Carolina.  Well that means a lot of candidates will drop out, leaving only Romney, Paul and one tea party guy like Sanatorum or Perry.  With all the crowding out in the republican field ended, the most conservative candidate should start shooting up in the polls.  Not saying that Romney isn't the favorite, but I really don't think this will end at South Carolina or Florida.  There will be at least 1 or 2 competitive primaries after that.

[palsch]

So uh... I take it that Mark Levin is massively popular and influential in Kentucky, and that his threat will leave Rand Paul quivering in terror and not shaking his head in slight bemusement?

IIRC he is a Tea Party anti-establishment figure with some clout. A bit like a localised Glen Beck. Alone he wouldn't take him down. Alongside a more broad based attack... it wouldn't help.

Thing is the actual establishment are pretty much guaranteed to do the same thing if Rand was to support his dad in a third party run. It's one of the reasons a few people have speculated over Ron setting up for Rand in 2016/20. Rand holds a more high profile position with considerably more party clout, as well as real clout, as a Senator.

[Sirus]

Sanatorum

i c wat u did dere

[RedKing]

Y'know, it just dawned on me exactly how Rick Perry could revive us campaign, particularly in the Bible Belt:

Claim Defender of the Faith title for Protestants. (EU3 reference)

Seriously, look at who's left:

Romney (Mormon)
Huntsman (Mormon)
Santorum (Catholic)
Gingrich (he might pander to using his religion as a selling point, but that's not his style. Plus the whole divorce/affair things...)
Paul (generally wants to stay out of pushing religion as a Federal government responsibility)

Rick Perry is the last hope of the WASPs. If he really wanted to burn those bridges, he could even insinuate that without him, it'd be a contest between a non-Christian and a non-Christian. 

This really is a big deal though. It could be the first time that the Republicans nominate a non-Protestant (although I suppose that's a point of contention. Nixon and Hoover were Quakers, Taft was a Unitarian).

[mainiac]

Sanatorum

i c wat u did dere

Spelled badly?

[Aqizzar]

I honestly think that a cultural WASP would be perfectly happy with a Catholic, as long as he says everything they want to hear.  It's not the 1950s anymore, and Cathoic is "generally Christian" enough for just about anyone in America.  Certainly a lot more than Mormon, or what people generally think of as Mormon.

I have a hard time picturing Huntsman becoming the Anti-Romney, simply because from what I can tell most of the social conservatives see him as Romney Lite. Or possibly Romney without the flip-flopping. I don't think the social conservatives will ever cleave to Huntsman just to ward off Romney. If it came down to that, they'd just abstain all together and start railing about how God is going to rain down fire and brimstone after the election because the GOP has lost its way or some shit (I'll leave it to Pat Robertson to come up with the specifics).

Huntsman's only real hope is that he can draw enough of the Gingrich and Romney camps that are fed up with those candidate's own respective baggages and see him as a "close enough" version of what they liked about Gingrich/Romney in the first place.

That was what I was going for, but I didn't really think about the Romney-Lite aspect, and you are correct.  In my hypothetical, Huntsman becomes the "moderate" alternative to Romney, for "moderates" who want an all-business candidate and don't want Romney.  Obviously that would leave pretty much all of the cultural wing of the party out in the cold, which is how Santorum would survive.  If Huntsman comes out of New Hampshire in third or second, it'll be a very fractured four-way race.  If it's Santorum, it'll narrow to two (and Paul) pretty much immediately.

I just remember the other reason South Carolina will be an interesting watch.  Governor Nikki Haley there rode into office as a Tea Party poster-girl, and endorsed Mitt Romney back in mid-December and is catching a lot of crap for it.  There's a lot of ways you could read that: A pragmatic politician reading the likely future, a case-study of the "Tea Party" ethos being bought out, or maybe just an honest tone-deaf personal decision.  I doubt it'll ultimately matter for much in the primary, but it's another fascinating intellectual battleground for the Republican soul.  It's worth remembering though that for all of Mitt Romney's financial backing, he's yet to secure the nod from corporate giants like the Koch Foundation.