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[Leafsnail]

They'll just have to fuse into one horrifying monster.

[Aqizzar]

Bear in mind this is with 10% of the caucuses in, and the earliest concluding caucuses return first.  In 2008, Romney had a lead early in the count because of his organization before he dropped into a distant second.  Paul had the good organization this time, so who knows.

With the same count, Gingrich is at 13% (not bad really, considering he gave up on the place), Perry is at 9% and Bachmann at 6%, and Huntsmann at 1%.  I know that doesn't add up to 100%.

[Bouchart]

Yeah, I don't know how much we can gleam out of this caucas, since there's a large number of candidates with considerable voting blocs.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Bachmann should not ever be beating Huntsman, even if they're both going to lose.

[nenjin]

All we need is a Howard Dean-esqe video segment from one of the candidates to really complete this circus.

HYAA!

[MetalSlimeHunt]

They say that in the cold, dark mists of the Iowa caucus, you can still hear Ol' Dean screaming his lungs out on a stormy night. But if you hear him crying, then stay far away dear boy. No one who's ever looked upon him then has ever come back...

[Aqizzar]

A very interesting tidbit to me.  Some entrance/exit polling suggests about 60% of Iowa caucus goers identified themselves as (white) evangelical Christians, same as 2008.  Who they said they voted for is the key: 30% Santorum, no surprise, but about 20% for Paul and 15% for Gingrich (really?), with Perry, Bachmann, and everyone else below that.  What it suggest is that in 2012, this year of all years, even self-identifying evangelicals are by plurality leaning towards a hard-social-conservative like Santorum, but are in sum total are going more for economic-oriented candidates like Paul and Gingrich.  That's going to be a vital detail in every other state for the Republican nominee.

22% of caucuses in, still 23%/23%/23%.  Stay tuned.

[MaximumZero]

They'll just have to fuse into one horrifying monster.

Vote Paultorumney for all your rightest wingiest political flavors!

[RedKing]

The other way to look at that: Christian evangelicals are staying the hell away from the Mormon candidates. It's an issue, even if they don't want to admit it up front.

But we really need to wait for the cross-tabs on any exit polling to see if that's a real problem or not.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Now I'm actually curious about what number of Mormons are actually going to support Romney. I have no idea if he's actually popular among his own religious group or not. I guess we'll see soon enough.

[RedKing]

There's only 23,000 Mormons in Iowa. They can only do so much...

The county breakdowns are interesting too. It's not that geographically clustered. While much of the western part of the state is going solidly for Santorum (including the county I was born in...geez, I've never been gladder I didn't grow up there), it's not a solid swath. The more eastern counties are going for Romney, but Ron Paul seems to be taking many of the more urban counties, especially the college counties like Johnson (University of Iowa), Des Moines (Drake University), and Black Hawk (University of Northern Iowa). Because Ron Paul is one of those popular college things like unprotected sex or doing a kegger the night before a big exam -- it sounds like a good time, but oh the potential consequences... 


EDIT: Another question: Will Bachmann drop out after this? She's a Midwesterner who should have been expected to do better in a nearby state. The fact that she's in distant 5th and hasn't won a single county (Gingrich is at least leading in two counties) should be a sober wake-up call to her campaign. I don't see her doing anything in South Carolina or New Hampshire either. Gingrich should stay in because he'll probably have a better time of it in South Carolina. Huntsman will stay in until New Hampshire, and barring a top 3 finish there, he'll probably drop out and endorse Romney after that.

[Capntastic]

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2012_01/it_seems_to_me_he_lives_his_li034469.php

The issue with Romney is that he will latch onto a stance, even if he is against it, to get ahead in the polls.

In this particular case, outlined above, he is pro-life, meaning he sees abortion as literal murder.  And yet he claimed support of it, solely to eke out some extra votes in that area.

[RedKing]

Also...Herman Cain has 26 votes (I guess there are some people in Iowa who really do live under rocks), and Buddy Roemer has 21. Who the hell is Buddy Roemer?

Per Google, he was Governor of Louisiana (and his campaign site still refers to him as Gov. Roemer) TWENTY years ago. At least his tweets are amusing:

BuddyRoemer: I almost have enough votes in Iowa to start a bowling league. #Roementum

BuddyRoemer: BREAKING: Somebody who died in 1987 is beating me in Iowa. #invisibleman #LetBuddyDebate

[Sirus]

Also...Herman Cain has 26 votes (I guess there are some people in Iowa who really do live under rocks), and Buddy Roemer has 21. Who the hell is Buddy Roemer?

Per Google, he was Governor of Louisiana (and his campaign site still refers to him as Gov. Roemer) TWENTY years ago. At least his tweets are amusing:

BuddyRoemer: I almost have enough votes in Iowa to start a bowling league. #Roementum

BuddyRoemer: BREAKING: Somebody who died in 1987 is beating me in Iowa. #invisibleman #LetBuddyDebate

I gotta appreciate someone who can make fun of themselves like that

[Glowcat]

Also...Herman Cain has 26 votes (I guess there are some people in Iowa who really do live under rocks), and Buddy Roemer has 21. Who the hell is Buddy Roemer?

Per Google, he was Governor of Louisiana (and his campaign site still refers to him as Gov. Roemer) TWENTY years ago. At least his tweets are amusing:

BuddyRoemer: I almost have enough votes in Iowa to start a bowling league. #Roementum

BuddyRoemer: BREAKING: Somebody who died in 1987 is beating me in Iowa. #invisibleman #LetBuddyDebate

iirc, he's the guy who shows up once in a while to talk about getting big money out of USA Politics.