Nevada primer.The Republican nominating train is in new terrain: the West. Saturday’s caucus in Nevada will unfold against mountains and deserts, a far different backdrop from the first four states.
But do not be fooled by the scenery. Where elections are concerned, Nevada is an urbanized state. Most Nevadans live in cities, and that holds true for Republicans and for Republican caucusgoers. In the state’s 2008 Republican caucus, exit polls found just over half of voters were from urban communities, and another quarter was from the suburbs.
The dire economy may help explain the fractured support of Nevada’s Tea Party, which has been one of the more active Tea Party groups in the country, but cannot seem to agree on a standard-bearer in the presidential campaign. Rick Santorum won the endorsement of Sharron Angle, a senatorial candidate backed by the Tea Party, but it might be too little too late. A poll commissioned by the Las Vegas Review-Journal found Tea Party support was split, with 37 percent going to Newt Gingrich, 27 percent to Mr. Romney and 20 to Mr. Santorum.
Another important voting bloc, as has been widely noted, are Mormons. Twenty-six percent of 2008 Republican caucusgoers were Mormon, and Mr. Romney won 95 percent of their votes. Mr. Paul, however, has been trying to make inroads into that support. His focus on the Constitution is a natural fit for members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, which considers the document to be divinely inspired. And Mormonism has a history of conflict with the federal government.
In 2008, there was also a substantial share of caucusgoers — 8 percent — who were Hispanic. While a majority of Florida’s Hispanics are of Cuban descent, Nevada’s Hispanics are mostly of Mexican origin. Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Paul have reportedly courted this group’s support more than Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum.
Should make for some interesting reading. And viewing if anyone lets Sharron Angle near a TV camera.
538 vote projections.
On the less factual side of things there have been some polls and rumours that make for fun speculation. One poll shows Santorum beating Obama in the general (lol). Now this is a Rasmussen poll and they have had horrible problems in the past, and this seems to mostly be people remaining mostly ignorant about Santorum given his (very) brief time in the spotlight, but for a few days it makes him the most electable candidate. He might be able to ride that out of a bad beat in Nevada.
Meanwhile Newt is holding a press conference immediately after the results come in. Not a speech, a press conference. Some have take this to mean he might drop out.
Combine these two and you have a fantasy situation where Newt throws his weight behind Santorum and the two run hard against Romney. At least one punter got some money down on a Santorum presidency today. I'd have taken the 140/1 as a value bet, but 66/1 sounds a bit generous to Santorums general electability. That said, today I'd take those as the odds for him getting the Republican nod.
Doubtful. Romney is going to win the nomination easily barring something incredible.
The upcoming caucuses are all very much states that Santorum will get crushed in, barring Missouri and maybe Minnesota. His strongest states are rust belt states, and those are basically sealed in favour of Romney.
He isn't even on the ballot in a lot of states.
Wha? He's a Republican candidate. At last check, he was on the ballot in every state (at least so far). Also, I think Santorum would have a natural constituency in the South, especially if Gingrich dips out. I agree that Romney probably has this in the bag, but the rest of your post is just flat what.
EDIT: Oh yeah, the results. Romney 0wnzors in Nevada. Looking like 50%+ at this point, Gingrich in the low 20s, Paul in the mid-high teens, and Santorum picking up the trash.
Uh, yeah, Santorum isn't on the ballot in a bunch of states because you have to "register" in each individual state. These states include:
Virginia
Tennessee
Rhode Island
and possibly more that I can't remember.
I find it highly unlikely Santorum will be surging anywhere without being on the ballot.
Anyhow, on my last check, the upcoming states are:
-Maine, a state even less friendly than New Hampshire where he came 10% in
-Colorado, a safe Romney state
-Minnesota, a state that has its evangelicals but has even more non-religious sorts who would go either Romney or Paul
-Missouri, Santorum's best chance at winning something, but sufficiently southern that his chance at actually winning the state depends more on what Gingrich does than his own merit.
Seeing as how elections rely upon momentum, I don't think a flurry of unfriendly states followed by a bunch of states you literally get no votes from will benefit him in the slightest.
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