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Author Topic: American Election Megathread - It's Over  (Read 763343 times)

GreatJustice

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10620 on: January 04, 2013, 02:58:21 pm »

Can you explain that graph'?
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This.

From what I can see, it's a graph of who holds how much of our debt? In which case, I fail to see the problem. You'd rather have China and Russia holding giant swathes of US debt rather than the Fed Reserve?

And while Chinese holdings have a slight dip in the last year, Japan has been on a buying spree. Seems Tokyo gots some mad love for the US debt. Since they're really good at taking American things and making them smaller and more efficient, maybe we can get them to do the same for our debt.

Oh, there's a lot of reasons why Japan is buying T-Bonds, but that's a whole different story. The significant point is that the Fed is basically intervening to great extents to ensure that interest rates stay low. To go back to a previous point:
Quote
As for US Treasuries, when the market loose confidence in them, interest rate will raise and that'll be the signal budget need to be balanced. As long as price don't raise, the signal is clear: borrow. As long as it's used for investment rather than entitlements, it'll be easy to cut later on.

Since the Fed can indefinitely purchase T-Bonds to keep interest rates down, that signal may NEVER appear, and borrowing can and will continue indefinitely until there comes a point where any cut would be economically disastrous. For example, cutting Medicare in the 60s or 70s in some way would have been fairly minor and not terribly damaging since so few people were dependent on it at the time. Now, Medicare is entrenched because lots of people are dependent on it, and that number will only increase without significant changes.

Can you explain that graph'?

Also, what's the Fed is doing is essentially printing money. Strangely, inflation is constant and low. If/when inflation goes up, we can stop rpinting money, in the meantime it's a good way to boost the economy.

It's not strange, it's what mainstream economics has been told us would happen in these circumstances for 70 years now.

Also GJ is full of crap.  If his story was true then interest rates would spike every time the Fed slowed it's purchases, which doesn't happen.

Hey Great Justice, I'll make you a bet.  I'll be that three years from now the Interest Rate on one year US t-notes still will not have passed 10%.  That is a very low bar to set for the hyperinflation you predict.  I'll offer you a bet of up to $100, given to a third party to keep track of in the mean time.

Interest rates would spike every time the Fed slowed it's purchases if not for the support of other central banks, conducted through massive credit swaps and through buying each other's bonds to keep up pretenses (see: the Fed and BoJ buying piles of Eurobonds). Your view would only hold true were the Fed the only central bank in the world buying treasuries.

Hyperinflation isn't necessarily going to occur, not in the least because the US could instead end up mired in a debt crisis like Europe or face stagnation like Japan instead (where stimulus spending and infrastructure improvement successfully created a gigantic deficit and no recovery). If I had $100 to throw around right now I'd make THAT bet without a second thought, though some other wager would suffice.
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mainiac

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10621 on: January 04, 2013, 02:59:49 pm »

How about the loser says publicly they were very wrong and both sides agree never to argue politics on Bay12 for the period of the bet, be it with each other or others.
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Ancient Babylonian god of RAEG
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"Don't tell me what you value. Show me your budget and I will tell you what you value"
« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.

GreatJustice

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10622 on: January 04, 2013, 03:03:12 pm »

How about the loser says publicly they were very wrong and both sides agree never to argue politics on Bay12 for the period of the bet, be it with each other or others.

Sounds good, then.

Oh, and an addendum, this is null and void if something completely out there happens, such as World War 3, the eruption of a supervolcano, aliens showing up, etc.
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The person supporting regenerating health, when asked why you can see when shot in the eye justified it as 'you put on an eyepatch'. When asked what happens when you are then shot in the other eye, he said that you put an eyepatch on that eye. When asked how you'd be able to see, he said that your first eye would have healed by then.

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mainiac

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10623 on: January 04, 2013, 03:13:38 pm »

How about the loser says publicly they were very wrong and both sides agree never to argue politics on Bay12 for the period of the bet, be it with each other or others.

Sounds good, then.

Oh, and an addendum, this is null and void if something completely out there happens, such as World War 3, the eruption of a supervolcano, aliens showing up, etc.

We'd need to appoint a judge to determine that something really is that massive though.  There's always going to be rationalizing...

So are we in agreement that we do not discuss politics on this board with each other or with others until Jan 3 2016?
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Ancient Babylonian god of RAEG
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[CAN_INTERNET]
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"Don't tell me what you value. Show me your budget and I will tell you what you value"
« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.

tahujdt

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10624 on: January 04, 2013, 03:15:24 pm »


How does Obama not understand at this point that he is dealing with nihilistic sociopaths?
I take offense to that.
Me too.

How about the loser says publicly they were very wrong and both sides agree never to argue politics on Bay12 for the period of the bet, be it with each other or others.

Sounds good, then.

Oh, and an addendum, this is null and void if something completely out there happens, such as World War 3, the eruption of a supervolcano, aliens showing up, etc.

We'd need to appoint a judge to determine that something really is that massive though.  There's always going to be rationalizing...

So are we in agreement that we do not discuss politics on this board with each other or with others until Jan 3 2016?

Agreed.
Nobody blame me, I voted for Urist the sockmaker!
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GreatJustice

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10625 on: January 04, 2013, 03:17:19 pm »

How about the loser says publicly they were very wrong and both sides agree never to argue politics on Bay12 for the period of the bet, be it with each other or others.

Sounds good, then.

Oh, and an addendum, this is null and void if something completely out there happens, such as World War 3, the eruption of a supervolcano, aliens showing up, etc.

We'd need to appoint a judge to determine that something really is that massive though.  There's always going to be rationalizing...

So are we in agreement that we do not discuss politics on this board with each other or with others until Jan 3 2016?

Sure. Honestly, I'd think it would make more sense to have multiple judges, since it's entirely possible that a single judge might become inactive or vanish over three years.
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The person supporting regenerating health, when asked why you can see when shot in the eye justified it as 'you put on an eyepatch'. When asked what happens when you are then shot in the other eye, he said that you put an eyepatch on that eye. When asked how you'd be able to see, he said that your first eye would have healed by then.

Professional Bridge Toll Collector?

Bauglir

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10626 on: January 04, 2013, 03:20:11 pm »

I volunteer to appoint the committee that will appoint judges.
This is a joke
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In the days when Sussman was a novice, Minsky once came to him as he sat hacking at the PDP-6.
“What are you doing?”, asked Minsky. “I am training a randomly wired neural net to play Tic-Tac-Toe” Sussman replied. “Why is the net wired randomly?”, asked Minsky. “I do not want it to have any preconceptions of how to play”, Sussman said.
Minsky then shut his eyes. “Why do you close your eyes?”, Sussman asked his teacher.
“So that the room will be empty.”
At that moment, Sussman was enlightened.

Nadaka

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10627 on: January 04, 2013, 03:21:44 pm »

You need a second before the motion can be carried according to parliamentary procedure.
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Mictlantecuhtli

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10628 on: January 04, 2013, 03:24:32 pm »

We should just allow a general consensus vote at the time it happens. I doubt we'll go anywhere before then.
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tahujdt

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10629 on: January 04, 2013, 03:25:45 pm »

I volunteer to appoint the committee that will appoint judges.
This is a joke
But first, we must appoint the people who will appoint the committee who will go on a fact-finding mission to Switzerland to approve the motion for you to appoint the committe who will appoint the judges.
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Nadaka

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10630 on: January 04, 2013, 03:28:53 pm »

And that list must pass by a three fifths majority of both houses, except on the first day of a new session where it requires only a simple majority.
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Take me out to the black, tell them I ain't comin' back...
I don't care cause I'm still free, you can't take the sky from me...

I turned myself into a monster, to fight against the monsters of the world.

RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10631 on: January 04, 2013, 03:37:32 pm »

I am announcing the creation of a party with the platform of filibustering the session until such time as a three fifths majority can be reached, and/or until all the people we don't like on the list die of old age.

Yeah, that's it...."old age". >_>
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Remember, knowledge is power. The power to make other people feel stupid.
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mainiac

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10632 on: January 04, 2013, 05:04:30 pm »

With any luck the framework of this bet can eventually become the system of law for a future government and people can shout arguments at each other over what GreatJustice and mainiac would have wanted.
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Ancient Babylonian god of RAEG
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[CAN_INTERNET]
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"Don't tell me what you value. Show me your budget and I will tell you what you value"
« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.

RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10633 on: January 04, 2013, 05:09:50 pm »

And long will we honor the Founding Forum Fighters.
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Remember, knowledge is power. The power to make other people feel stupid.
Quote from: Neil DeGrasse Tyson
Science is like an inoculation against charlatans who would have you believe whatever it is they tell you.

FearfulJesuit

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10634 on: January 04, 2013, 05:11:11 pm »

I wish Jefferson had had his way with scrapping and replacing the Constitution every so often.

Probably not every nineteen years. Maybe every forty.
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@Footjob, you can microwave most grains I've tried pretty easily through the microwave, even if they aren't packaged for it.
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