@deep waters, your personal text is hilariously accurate.
Now, bombzero, what could you possibly mean by that?
No, seriously. What do you mean by that?
Alright, for things that are game related, here is what we officially
know about our situation. Everything is almost directly copied from Monk, whether through Omo's mouth or directly from the man himself.
The Problem: -There's a lot of Rangers here, and I'm not sure we can slip past them.
-[There's] [e]nough to repulse an attack from the river, and more than enough to catch us if we aren't careful.
-It looks like this is a local staging point for the Rangers, protecting the ferry at Larathor.
-From what I can tell, there's a picket watching the ferry at all times, and lots of Rangers in the treeline up and down the Great River.
-[They're] too busy looking out to keep more than a cursory eye on the Walled Jungle behind them.
The Options: -[W]e could try to make it to the ferry. We'd almost certainly be spotted, but if we can get across the guiderope before the sentries catch up we should be alright. [The guiderope is] a rope that runs from one bank of the river to the other. The ferry almost certainly won't be on our side of the river, and we can't wait for it to come to us, so we'll have to do it the old fashioned way. Hand over hand.
--We could try it under the cover of darkness, which would be much more dangerous but might let us make it unseen.
-[G]o around[.] Either option would take us days out of our way, and we'd still have to worry about Ranger patrols while we're traveling.
--[W]e could go north and try to find a spot we can swim across or ford[.]
--[W]e could go south and try to wave down a boat[.]
--[I]f we go south far enough we'll hit another town sooner or later.
Extra Information:The River- Call it 800 feet wide, 15 feet at its deepest- maybe a bit more due to spring flooding. Normally the current isn't too fast, but it's still not easy to swim against if you have to, and it'd suck if you happen to hit a branch on the way across. If we cross here, we shouldn't have to worry about whirlpools or other dangers though.
The Rangers- I'm pretty sure my old unit is the band stationed here[.] They probably already know I deserted, since I should already be with them, and if we run into any officers they'll probably know I'm not assigned to any other duties. [T]here'll be too many trained Rangers to account for [to win in a fight]. About the only thing in our favor there is that they won't use lethal force, so they're not going to riddle us with arrows mid-river.
Your Swimming Skill- You are not actually a trained swimmer. Your fishing experience has made you comfortable wading in deep water, and you can doggy paddle well enough, but if something happens in open water you have less-than-good odds of being able to swim your way out of it. Not that you'd expect something terrible to happen, and the Great River is not known for its deadly schools of carp or anything, but it is a risk to be aware of.
The Other Side- [T]he town on the other side is Larathor- it isn't exactly The Big City, but it's a prosperous trading town on the Caravan Route from west to east, and also handles some trade north to south along the river.
Waterproofing- One [is] a minor water-repelling spell intended for raincloaks; you think you can adapt it for your purposes, though you aren't sure if it is potent enough to stand up to complete submersion. It seems to be fairly easy to learn- a few hours of study, and you should have it figured out no later than noon tomorrow. The other spell is described as a way to make writing permanent, allowing it to survive any number of indignities. It looks a lot more complicated to learn, however, and the complexity means you can't really assess how versatile or potent it is. It could easily take you a couple of days to get working.
Tiredness- [W]hile weary, you are not so tired that it will significantly affect your skill checks should the worst happen.
Bear- [T]he bear was probably a solid hour's hike back up the trail- judicious application of honeycomb and Calm Animal should be enough to lure the bear to the Ranger camp, but you wouldn't get back until after dark, if that affects your plan.
Items- Elven Cloak <- If you mouse over this, it says "Mostly waterproof". Take from that what you will.
Omo Says- I say we just make a run for it.
You Say- Omo seems confident in his ability to outrun the Rangers, but you are somewhat less sure.
I'll start with options that are not crossing now.
First off, I'll omit the Ranger patrol concerns because it's far more likely we'll be caught by crossing now anyways. The only comment I'll make about that is that the extra days will probably see patrols thickening as more Rangers pour in from the heart of Elfland.
It appears that if we attempt to cross at a more northerly area, we may run into whirlpools and other water hazards. Not really surprising, now that I think of it; IIRC rivers that come from mountains tend to widen after their source, attaining slower currents becoming easier to cross. That's problematic enough, but if the angle of the land is too steep the river might become whitewater rapids further north, especially with the spring flooding- there's no way we could cross safely then. If we do go north, hopefully we'll be able to find a place to cross long before we get into any rapid areas.
Going south, then, would be more viable from a cross-the-river standpoint. It's also closer to the route after the river that the majority of us seem to want to take- at least the majority that has stated an opinion- but it's also likely to be more heavily guarded than the north- for good reason, but still. Also, Omo didn't suggest attempting to cross/ford the river if we go south, so there's probably something he knows about the river's southerly route that he thinks will prevent us from being able to cross it- probably something on the order of "it gets much wider" or "the Ranger patrols will be able to stop us too easily" or something.
Waving down a boat sounds as if it might be difficult. How likely is it that a boat will see us and, if seen, how likely is it that the boat will be willing transport two dirty, shifty-looking vagabonds off the side of a river- vagabonds that for some reason didn't decide to take the easier and more obvious route of riding the ferry-
any ferry? Even if they are, they'll probably want something- what will we give them in return? The only things of any value we have on us are our coin, the mana potion, the one crystal, and possibly Omo's staff.
Going further south to another town has the one advantage of maybe being able to bluff our way across without running afoul of Omo's former mates. Of course, if our mother has any sort of pull and has any sort of overbearing maternal instincts, that also makes it more likely that any Rangers we run into town (and probably other individuals as well) will know who we are. We'd have to get some sort of disguise then, and what kind of disguise can we cobble together from what we have right now?
Crossing the river now has several advantages and one big disadvantage. It's the one point in which we can reveal ourselves voluntarily and create a plausible reason for us being there- I doubt we'd be able to explain to Ranger #5 why we as law-abiding elf citizens were trying to dodge his/her patrol, and it's also the one point where the river crossing itself is guaranteed- we know there's a crossing there; we just have an lot of obstacles between us and it. If we use the guiderope, it'll help keep our gear dry (dryer than the majority of the other options, anyways) and if we accidentally fall into the river or something we'll at least be near plenty of Rangers to rescue us from drowning. However, being ostensibly the most guarded point along the Great River, it's the point where we're most likely to be caught. If we make one mistake, it's game over- we'll be too closely watched to be able to sneak out again, and I doubt we'll be able to influence the Council to do anything like actually interact with the outside world afterwards- we'd be lucky if they even granted us audience.
I still support going north, by the way. Just listing the facts.
TL; DR: No. You read it NOW! >:O
But seriously. It's hard to summarize it all. Um... north- water hazards, south- heavily guarded/other possible dangers, crossing now- most likely get caught?