Second plan - Ask Omo what an official letter to leave looks like.
If he knows, see if we can recreate a passable fake.
If he doesn't, well then, it shouldn't be too hard to create a passable fake, since he's a ranger too.
And if things don't look like they're working out, we might at least have the raft closer or ourselves be closer to the rope. (still going with the hook loop plan for faster crossing).
How wide is the river and how fast is the current, btw?
Alright, Omo, I've never seen this river before- exactly how big is it?What do I look like, a ferryman? Call it 800 feet wide, 15 feet at its deepest- maybe a bit more due to spring flooding. Normally the current isn't too fast, but it's still not easy to swim against if you have to, and it'd suck if you happen to hit a branch on the way across. If we cross here, we shouldn't have to worry about whirlpools or other dangers though.Hm. Do you know what a letter of permission to leave would look like?I doubt such a thing would exist- Elves leaving the Vale would be a rare enough occasion to merit a messenger and probably an escort, to boot.There we go! I've been given permission to leave, and you're my voucher and escort. It's not like they've been told to detain us.Yeah... uh, remember how I knew how many groups were out here?Yeah?Well, that's because I'm pretty sure my old unit is the band stationed here- I recognized the style of more than a few messages. They probably already know I deserted, since I should already be with them, and if we run into any officers they'll probably know I'm not assigned to any other duties. Maybe not, though, or it might not matter if you've got a good bluff lined up!Eh. If it comes to a fight, will we win?Probably not, no- there'll be too many trained Rangers to account for. About the only thing in our favor there is that they won't use lethal force, so they're not going to riddle us with arrows mid-river.Yeah, if we go for the rope crossing, we probably should have Omo carry any supplies that can be damage if it falls into the water.
On a side note: How good swimmer are we? We are a fisherman (fisherwoman?), we do have risked falling into ponds, rivers, etc. so we might actually be pretty decent swimmers, but we'd need a confirmation on that. If we are, it counts as a point in favor of crossing to rope at night.
You are not actually a trained swimmer. Your fishing experience has made you comfortable wading in deep water, and you can doggy paddle well enough, but if something happens in open water you have less-than-good odds of being able to swim your way out of it. Not that you'd expect something terrible to happen, and the Great River is not known for its deadly schools of carp or anything, but it is a risk to be aware of.
What's on the other side of the river townwise, by the way? We should claim that as our immediate goal, and then wandering and diplomacy trying to get a feel for the possible resistance, chokepoints, fallback plans. Basically, act like a proper diplomat interacting with a neighboring ally in a war.
Pevo mentioned a while ago (I'm too lazy to look up the post) that the town on the other side is Larathor- it isn't exactly The Big City, but it's a prosperous trading town on the Caravan Route from west to east, and also handles some trade north to south along the river.
0. This is something that we should do regardless of which plan we choose: Look through Prestidigitation for the Beginning Practitioner for basic waterproofing spells that are safe to apply to the book and to our writing materials. It would seriously suck if we managed to get across the river only to discover that our one and only source of general magical knowledge was ruined by the water.
Flipping through the index, you find a couple promising candidates.
One appears to be a minor water-repelling spell intended for raincloaks; you think you can adapt it for your purposes, though you aren't sure if it is potent enough to stand up to complete submersion. It seems to be fairly easy to learn- a few hours of study, and you should have it figured out no later than noon tomorrow.
The other spell is described as a way to make writing permanent, allowing it to survive any number of indignities. It looks a lot more complicated to learn, however, and the complexity means you can't really assess how versatile or potent it is. It could easily take you a couple of days to get working.
RE: Tiredness- while weary, you are not so tired that it will significantly affect your skill checks should the worst happen.
RE: Bear- the bear was probably a solid hour's hike back up the trail- judicious application of honeycomb and Calm Animal should be enough to lure the bear to the Ranger camp, but you wouldn't get back until after dark, if that affects your plan.
With that information, go ahead and cast your votes, next update will be an update of ACTION!