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[Erkki]

May 24th

Kido Butai: 3 USN destroyers fleeing to West are sighted but not attacked. Guess they werent worth of it. 90-bomber strike to Suva's port scores 2 bomb hits(sinking an xAKL and finishing off an xAK damaged in yesterday's attack) also scoring mighty 2 port hits. The small warships in the port were not hit.


May 25th

Kido Butai: KB now returning to Truk.

DEI: On Java, the remains of the Dutch forces surrender at Banjoewang(SE tip of the island). Java is now 100% Japanese!

[Erkki]

May 26th-29th


Not much worth reporting happened, but I'll do a quick summary on each front with the current situation.


Burma: Very little happening on either side as we are now suffering from the Monsoon rules. I'm moving engineers ahead to build bases along the railway to Myitkyina, while the airfields in basin are starting to be pretty well built up. IJNAF and IJAAF have swapped out 1/3 of the used to be 120 Ki-43s to Ki-44-IIas and the 30 Zeros are now brand new A6M3s. IJAAF is now starting to do small raids against enemy troops at Chittagong and around it(clear terrain) using a squadron size unit of Ki-43s and 30 Ki-21 bombers. I want to wake up the Allies.

DEI: The Japanese "operational base" for the future attacks across Timor Sea is nearly ready. In 2 weeks Japanese Marines will land at Kendari, Ambon, Waingapoe and Denpasar(at least) and also take Cocos Islands in the Indian Ocean. Invasion troops are ready on Java(though not prepared) and more support troops are being brought from Home Islands and Philippines.

SOPAC: Everything dead quiet in the Solomons as Kido Butai is arriving at Truk in 4 days.


As you may already know, my opponent will now be away for some time on a skiing trip. I'll be having plenty of time to plan ahead! Any screenshot(or other) wishes, comments? []

[Zrk2]

Tell them to have fun, and maybe a unit update, if anything noteworthy has happened.

[Erkki]

Well here is the global map. Each dot is a base(or potential one). Too bad it doesnt discriminate the sizes or importance, but you get the idea of what has been conquer so far... 

[Sheb]

You should clean up the Celebes. Also, I'm kinda sad you agreed to a ceasefire in China. I'd love to see you conquer all that green between your forces and the Tibetan plateau.

[Jerick]

Am I still on station near Makassar?

[Erkki]

Smeulders is back, and so is this AAR.


May 30th

Some good news today!

Philippines: Japanese forces at Bataan peninsula have been waiting for long. A deliberate attack was ordered for today, and the results are very promising: despite having only 80-90% of the defender's numbers(1150 vs 1350 AV) and fighting in defensive terrain, the attack still dropped fortifications from 4 to 3 and achieved nice 3:1 odds! It seems that the combined PA and US Army defenders are finally out or about to be out of supplies. Attackers still suffered nearly twice the casualties, so we'll need a week or so to replenish strength before the next attack. Many of the defending combat units seemed to be effectively useless, completely disabled, even before the attacks, and I doubt the Allies can restore much, if any, of the strength lost today.

You should clean up the Celebes. Also, I'm kinda sad you agreed to a ceasefire in China. I'd love to see you conquer all that green between your forces and the Tibetan plateau.

Thats what I'm working on. Kendari and Ambon still work as naval search aircraft bases, monitoring Japanese traffic... Kendari's turn is first, in 2 weeks. Other than them, only Matara mand Denpasar(near Java) have garrisons. The rest need to be taken to deny their use by the Allies, but theres no hurry.

Am I still on station near Makassar?

DD Makigumo is still attached to CL Sendai TF at Makassar. Makassar has 2 other cruiser squadrons, all 3 are ordered to stay there as they will be needed within a month. Their secondary task is to provide an "anti-raider deterrent" to cover the fuel shipping to Makassar from Java and Balikpapan in preparation of the future operations that will use Soerebaja on Java, Makassar and Koepang on Timor as the logistical hubs behind the "front".

[Sheb]

Yeah! This is back!

[Delta Foxtrot]

While you seem to be doing rather well, is there any chance of you actually winning against the american industry?

[Erkki]

While you seem to be doing rather well, is there any chance of you actually winning against the american industry?

No way. The no-return line in the sand is somewhere in early-mid 1944 at latest. Even with optimized and streamlined industry and logistics(impossible to do) the resource and oil outputs from East Indies, Burma, China, Sakhalin and Manchuko are limited and thus cap the total industry, supply and fuel(leftovers from industry) output. As the matter of fact when it comes to oil, there is so much refinery capacity on Honshu and Kyushu alone that should the refineries in the occupied areas get bombed, Japan can still convert all pumped oil into fuel, at only 11%+ penalty to shipping capacity(oil makes 90% fuel so tankers will be 11% less efficient, plus only tankers can carry oil which would limit capacity and flexibility). There is little to no need for Allies to even bomb the industry as taking, cutting off or destroying a couple of major oil production areas will starve Japan soon, unless there has been time to build reserves, in which case they might last even a year. At the beginning of the campaign, oil reserves are only 7 months and fuel lasts a couple of months longer after all oil has been refined.

To make up for the lack of industrial capacity I have heavily cut down on less useful projects and increased aero engine and airframe R&D for higher efficiency. Many useless ships are canceled and aborted. Also lots of good pilots and air unit leaders have been tasked to training command and operational training units to keep frontline pilots' skills high and reserves deep - having better pilots and planes also means less casualties and thus less industrial capacity required to build replacements.

The Allies' inactivity is really helping Japan here as there is ever less need to build the current not that great planes like Ki-43 and early Zeros, and theres no pilot attrition.

[inteuniso]

So how do you plan on winning?

[Erkki]

So how do you plan on winning?

By making them bleed. 

[Hanzoku]

That's where I don't get Smeulder's plan. If he leaves you alone to attempt to gather everything together into one giant hammer later in the war, he's liable to run himself into a heavily entrenched, trained and supplied meatgrinder.

[Erkki]

That's where I don't get Smeulder's plan. If he leaves you alone to attempt to gather everything together into one giant hammer later in the war, he's liable to run himself into a heavily entrenched, trained and supplied meatgrinder.

I dont get it either. Even after the Allies become unstoppable their offensives are still limited by logistics, as it takes time to physically move units, fuel and supplies from place to another. All kinds of naval action means losing attrition to Japan, as would 1:1 ratio in the air. The only branch where Japan can match the Allies even late in the war is troop numbers. But not quality. As long as major Allied assets are not committed, theres IMHO little drawback to making Japan burn more supplies, fuel and men even if it means some losses...

I think my opponent just hates casualties... Hes very careful with all of his assets. I would like to find a way to exploit that, as it most probably also means he will be reluctant to commit assets when required and when doing so is likely to be late. It also makes him rather predictable(hes been, so far).

[Sheb]

Erkki, just wanted to pop by and thank you for all the good time I had reading your LPs. I won't be following this thread anymore (I spent too much time on Bay12, so I decided to quit) so this is a goodbye of sort.

Thanks again for all the good read!