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[Erkki]

So, you lost 4500 men, and they lost 2 glorified motorboats? Ouch.

Yeah, well, attacking is always much more difficult than defending and shit happens... Despite of some casualties and hassle we have landed over 35,000 men, some 30,000 follow tomorrow and some 50,000 the following week. The forces we have already landed would probably be enough to take the island in a 2-3 months, but I'm going to use more troops to keep the operational tempo high - the sooner the place is Japanese the sooner we can carry on invading places or move the troops where ever they are needed.

Allies also lost at least 35  bombers, a fighter and probably circa 30 aircrew + 4-5 aircraft as damaged for no gain whatsoever. Those HDMLs, PTs and MLs are now out of torpedoes if not all ammo and short on fuel, and Batavia is no longer usable as a reloading port(a Japanese squadron of 4 cruisers and 10 destroyers camping it).

What I'm expecting tomorrow is that the Allies send in more aircraft from elsewhere, possibly even Australian air units, and continue the attacks on the invasion fleet. We might lose a transport or 2, but unless something very bad and unexpected happens tomorrow there is very little the Allies can do to save Java. We are nicely on schedule. 

[Zrk2]

Nice. If China is completely down and out and conquered how does that change the balance of power? Are we on equal terms with them in terms of production? Close enough? Superior?

[Erkki]

Nice. If China is completely down and out and conquered how does that change the balance of power? Are we on equal terms with them in terms of production? Close enough? Superior?

Over a million men and both(you read right, both) of Japan's motorized divisions freed for world conquer. I dont think its going to happen but just pushing them another 500nm or so from the coast into more defensible terrain should allow China Expeditionary Army to keep them contained with less force than is now used, freeing at least a couple of divisions' worth of troops to guard Burma and the Perimeter.

Economy wise even in the best scenario China doesnt provide much... Less than 10% boost in heavy industry, some oil(refineries are not an issue, theres more than plenty of excess refinery capacity on Honshu and Kyushu), light industry not enough to even supply the troops already there, and some resources. If I can get Changsha and retreat the KMT Southern Army to the mountains, I'll at least be able to open the road from Fusan(Korea) all the way via Shanghai, Canton, Hong Kong, Hanoi, Saigon and Bangkok to Singapore and Burma. The road is already open but parts of it are just dirt road which doesn't help much, I think its max 150 tons a day per direction, or so.

China is mostly about dealing with one opponent first, and if successful, will allow moving troops to other fronts, ability to move oil, fuel and resources by rail and road(instead of often vulnerable naval routes), secures or threatens possible future Allied heavy strategic bomber bases as well as boosts economy somewhat.

4900 AV stack will shock attack across a river to Sian tomorrow. Should that attack be successful, China's back will be broken. In 5 days we have another army at the gates of Changsha in the south too, and I don't think it can hold. Those 2 cities are most vital to the Chinese: Sian has oil wells, refineries and industry, while Changsha has not only industry but its also the last buffer between the front and the central China plains where better Japanese mobility and air superiority will crush the Chinese, and theres also about 20% of Chinese industry still in Chinese hands.

[Erkki]

March 3rd 1942

Not a good day for the Japanese. Lets go through today's disappointments clockwise, which happens to be from least to worst when it comes to things that pissed me off in this turn.

CENPAC: Another US xAK TF slips past the submarine screen, this one sails through at least 3 hex with a Japanese submarine, sub floatplanes spot it twice but dont engage. Nothing in ops reports either.

SOPAC: CVL Shoho raider TF near Pago Pago doesnt spot anything at all, but is itself spotted by Allied patrol aircraft. Why arent the Allied float and patrol planes never, ever, shot down by Japanese CAP, but my E13As and H6Ks and all the carrier-borne scouts get shot down left and right when they meet even handful of Buffaloes, but KB's 100+ Zeroes ignore the dozens of float planes that shadow the TF? Shoho now has to bug out, but we'll check the sea area to the NE first.

DEI: A squadron Dutch PT boats engage Japanese cruiser TFs 3 times today, we manage to sink just 3 of them (to no loss, however). The PT boat fleet is now rearming, I think, we'll probably see it tomorrow. My opponent is super boring: despite of some of the air attacks getting through yesterday, no bomber or fighter sorties today. He has hundreds of aircraft on Java but he simply wont use them.

Burma: I know I'm producing surplus of supplies in Burma and shipping more, I have the stockpiles set (we're playing the beta) but I'm still short or out of supplies in nearly every Burma base.  I cant wait to see what kind of the nightmare it is with the supplies once the Allied offensives begin...

China:

I have now 3,600 AV at Changsha, we'll bombard attack and see what they have there tomorrow. Judging by what happened during the rest of this turn, I dont have particularly high hopes... The KMT South Army is retreated like 15 times and they've lost maybe half a million men, but I wouldnt be surprised if they had forts 5, raw AV advantage and were well supplied.

And today's worst is:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Ground combat at Sian (83,41)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 157851 troops, 1159 guns, 435 vehicles, Assault Value = 4940

Defending force 155722 troops, 884 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 4270

Japanese adjusted assault: 1853

Allied adjusted defense: 3515

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 5)

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
36966 casualties reported
Squads: 427 destroyed, 2311 disabled
Non Combat: 214 destroyed, 1468 disabled
Engineers: 20 destroyed, 99 disabled
Vehicles lost 270 (49 destroyed, 221 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
15299 casualties reported
Squads: 50 destroyed, 616 disabled
Non Combat: 59 destroyed, 882 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 26 disabled
Units destroyed 1

Where did that disruption(-) come from? All units had disruption below 8 and very low fatigue... Notice how the 360+ engineers didnt lower the forts.

Those Chinese have been retreated at least once per unit. Clearly they were not short of supplies(Forts 5 too), and the KMT units in this area easily outmatched the Japanese even in raw AV, even before the losses! (Theres 3,000+ Chinese AV in the adjacent hex). Now people are going to tell me that if he has that much there he cant be strong elsewhere... OK. So I'm just going to ignore that 8-unit stack at Ankiang and 50+ units at, near and around Changsha, and the 8 Corps he has at Ichang. The Japanese northern army will now retreat, lets hope the Chinese wont start a counter offensive...

Despite of getting his units cut off destroyed for no gain, the rest of the force retreated multiple times and half a million men lost elsewhere, he still outnumbers the Japanese in raw AV, and sits in heavily defensive terrain behind 5 forts just about everywhere. This alone would be OK to me, that was pretty much the situation in real China, but what worries me is that the Chinese can probably move on offensive themselves by the end of 1942 and I'd be very surprised if they didnt drive me out of the country by early 1945, especially as judging by other AARs, Burma is next to impossible to defend.

In the South, Chinese have 18 units at Changsha, 22 more in adjacent hexes and 8 more 2 hex away. After what happened today I no longer think we can take Changsha, despite of knowing that at least 20 of those units have been retreated all at least 3 times and our bombers kill 500+ of them daily.

The people who say China cant be held against determined Japanese attack were clearly seeing just player experience difference - Smeulders had committed a largely failed Sir Robin and still outmatches me despite of 2 extra divisions from Honshu and committing 350 bomber sorties a day since the beginning of the war, and keeping his troops in clear terrain where they lost on the average about 1,500 men a day through January and February.

Now, I would probably want to start bombing Chinese industry, but we have a house rule against that. D'oh.

At least the Java landings were uninterrupted today, we have some 61,000 troops landed and 10,000 more follow tomorrow. They'll total approx 2500 AV. An additional division is ready at Singapore.

[Erkki]

And heres the Jap ship production

Spoiler: Top of the ship production screen (click to show/hide)

I have stopped Shinano and accelerated all CVs except CVL Ibuki and CV Aso (variable reinforcements so Ikoma arrives before Aso). I have converted some merchant shipyards to naval as well as expanded naval yards somewhat. I have also 1 Akitzuki class DD and a CL accelerated, but dont plan to accelerate once their keels are laid. I have stopped so far all RO-submarines as well as 1 other sub. As it is, I should already have enough capacity to accelerate at least 2 first, maybe 3 first, until their arrive and get them by mid -43.

Merchant shipyard points are going down at the moment but they should even out once the first few CVEs come out.

In air production, I am at the moment building

120 A6M2
40 G4M1
22 G3M2(currently stopped, 150 in pool)
30 B5N2
15 B5N1
30 D3A1
30 E13A1
10 H6K4

120 Ki-43-Ic
35 Ki-21-IIa
20 Ki-57-II
10 Ki-56
15 Ki-46-II

+ enough engines to build those all with some engine surplus.

By 9/42 I'm planning to have the factories to build

150 A6M3a
10 A6M2-N
40 G4M1
22 G3M3
30 B5N2
30 D3A1(wont upgrade to A2)
30 E13A
10 H8K1
10 H6K5
5 H6K4-L

150+ Ki-44-IIa
30 Ki-43-IIa
45 Ki-45KAIa
30 Ki-61-Ia
35 Ki-21-IIa
100 Ki-49-IIa
15 Ki-46-II
20 Ki-57-II
10 Ki-56

[Erkki]

March 4th 1942


China:

A Chinese corps retreated for the 2nd time North of Changsha, 3,500 Chinese casualties 720 Japanese with nearly 300 Chinese squads destroyed.

Changsha bombardment reveals 3600 Japanese AV + the fresh division joining next turn vs. 2200 defending AV, casualties are similar so forts are max 2 or so...

Burma: aerial reconnaissance flights to Calcutta reveal transport ships both in the port and anchored out of it, over 200 aircraft and lots of troops. We havent found any concentrations of enemy bombers in this theater yet so its possible that we will be able to build up our air bases somewhat before the action begins.

Java:

Dutch PT boats attack in the night, and are stopped by a Japanese cruiser TF. 2 boats are sunk and a 3rd hit before they retreat.

Allied air attacks are continued against unloading Japanese amphibious task forces: Japanese fighter patrols over Kalidjati shoot down 9 Vildebeest torpedo bombers, 9 B-339 fighters and 10 American A-24 Banshee dive bombers to no Japanese losses. Ki-43 pilot Major Izumida P shoots down 4 enemy aircraft in a single sortie, his score now standing at 6 and him being Japans first fighter ace!

Some 5 Banshees and 3 Vildebeests manage to get through. 2 Vildebeests and 1 Banshee are shot down by AAA fire from Japanese ships(all other attackers are at least damaged). Banshees all miss, but a Vildebeest manages to score a torpedo hit on Japan's best light cruiser, CL Oi. Oi's damage is serious, but is not going to sink her unless shes hit again. She is however dispatched from the fleet and is now being repaired at Kalidjati, secured by Japanese troops today.

Japanese raid on a Dutch airfield finds 5 B-339s and 2 Hurricanes flying CAP - 2 B-339s are shot down 3 others damaged. 1 Hurricane shot down, the other damaged, but we also lost 2 Zeros to the Hurricanes (1 pilot MIA, other pilot crashed his damaged plane at landing and is KIA).

Todays air losses are 4 Zeros and 2 pilots vs. 34 to 40 enemy aircraft. Japanese troops capture a damaged B-339 at Kalidjati.

We have now landed almost all the troops and most of the supplies. A recon regiment and some infantry from Kalidjati will try to march across the island to prevent the Dutch units at Batavia from escaping.

SOPAC: CVL Shoho TF finds nothing, time to head home...

[Anvilfolk]

Nice I'm really enjoying following this one from the beginning

How long do you take to prepare a turn?

[Erkki]

Nice I'm really enjoying following this one from the beginning

How long do you take to prepare a turn?

About 1 hour in minimum, but when theres lots of things to do and happening a turn might take even 3 hours... But those are rare

EDIT: March 5th, almost nothing happens, Allied planes stay on the ground and Japanese Zero-sweep of 37 finds no enemy aircraft flying CAP. Tomorrow, Japanese tank regiment will retreat some Dutch troops and then turn to drive across the island - Dutch seem to be moving their troops towards Bandoeng, a mountain-terrain base hex in the middle of the island. They'll get the best defensive terrain bonus that way but those units from Batavia will get bombed by Palembang's IJNAAF units for 2 days. The 53rd Infantry Division is preparing to board ships at Singapore: we'll use more force than necessary to cut the delays to minimum.

[Sheb]

Ouch, they'll be a pain to dislodge. Can't we just go around them and starve/bomb them to death?

[Erkki]

Ouch, they'll be a pain to dislodge. Can't we just go around them and starve/bomb them to death?

I'll probably try to take on them - there was just 1 unit there before so it cant be a well-prepared fall-back position. With the 53rd Div from Singapore(available at Batavia in 8 or 9 days, at front in 12-13) and the half a division's worth of infantry from Oosthaven, there should be enough men and firepower. In the meanwhile we can bomb the Dutch troops that march in open terrain as well as Bandoeng itself to keep the forts from being built up: terrain bonus alone wont be enough to save their bacon.

[Erkki]

March 6th

Quiet everywhere, 3 Dutch MTBs do a kamikaze run towards Japanese CVE TF at Merak. They fight 8 rounds against our surface action squadrons before the last of them is finally destroyed. A Dutch submarine torpedoes DD Arashi near Kalidjati, damage is heavy but very little system damage and no fires so with some luck she might make the 1 hex to Kalidjati and disband without sinking.

[Erkki]

PaxMondo on the WitPAE forums:

Don't think "crap" planes, think light kami's (Val's), good kami's (kates), and heavy kami's (sally's).  remember, late war you are going to lose 1000 planes in a day with a major kami attack.  How long does it take you to build 1000 planes?  2 months?  Lost in one day. 

Playing Downfall is teaching me that you cannot back off production in late '42 - '43 too much.  Those 18 months potentially allow you to build 6 - 9 large kami attacks of planes.  Without them, you will struggle to field enough planes.

Read Nemo's AAR.  He just lost +600 planes, but he took out 2CV's, 2CVE's, 2BB's ... while not sinking all of them, they are out for the duration of the game, so as good as sunk.

My reply:

Yes, I'm aware of the risks of this strategy... However I'm hoping for the fruits of my R&D program to give me some extra edge together with the expanded naval shipyards. I have planned the naval building ahead to late 43 and unless Smeulders bombs my shipyards I can build the 5th Unryu by 11/43.

My HI points are currently +2950/day, so not so much. I will need those points later, I cannot count on being able to hold Palembang and Burma the whole of 43(I'm not PzB you know...).

My kamikaze planes will most probably be the Netties(now 62 a month and not going to lower production), Ki-21/Ki-49(now only 35 but by July 1st production should total 155-160 a month) and lots, lots of Army fighters.

Smeulders doesnt seem to like attrition war at all. So far all the "battles" with him have been quick max 2-3 day skirmishes where he immediately retreats if he didnt win. Outside of massed kami attacks there might not be many opportunities to make use of massive aircraft production. Currently all of his Burma air force is sitting on their thumbs at Calcutta instead of attacking Magwe's oil wells or my troops that sit at open terrain hexes... ...Or killing my 1E bombers left and right in China. My bombers arent escorted because hes afraid to lose a P-40 or 2 to airfield attacks the day after the ambush.

D3A is such a crap I'm indeed building just the minimum number of them. However I'm R&D:ing the D4Y(500 & 250kg bomb, nice!) at 90 planes a month, should have plenty of them by 1/44. B6N also 60 a month. B6N and D4Y arrive pretty early in the dababes, 3/43 and 1/43, with the R&D I should get them 2 or 1/43 and 10 or 11/42.

[Anvilfolk]

Are kamikaze attacks actually part of the game mechanics, or is there something that simulates them?

Could Smeulders just be waiting until he has a massive navy, and then going for the "all out battle"?

[Erkki]

Are kamikaze attacks actually part of the game mechanics, or is there something that simulates them?

Could Smeulders just be waiting until he has a massive navy, and then going for the "all out battle"?

Kamikazes are activated if date is DD_MM_1944, 1945 or 1946 and the Allies own a base close enough to any Home Island bases, Saigon or Takao. Also as the war progresses the chance of a pilot, once his plane is damaged, to "willing to die for the Emperor!" increases, regardless of plane and sortie type(ie. even when not flying a kamikaze sortie), and ram his plane on enemy planes or ships. In 1945 that happens a lot especially with low experience pilots who will try to ram bombers...

Yep Smeulders could just wait but the longer he waits the longer Japan gets to dig, build up and haul oil and fuel to feed Home Islands' industry.

Points wise, though, if Japan lasts as long as historically the game can be a "draw", and if Japan hold until the end of the 1945 the best the Allies can do is a "draw", as Japanese player will have done considerably better than in real life. However with the Soviet Union joining the war some time in August 1945, it is unlikely that Japan could last that long. Draw is still possible, though.

[Erkki]

March 7th

3rd day in a streak Japanese air strike on retreating Dutch troops failed to launch. Doh.

We have reconnoitered all Dutch airfields on Java and the Allies seem to have about 90 bombers and 30 fighters on the island. If our bombers take off we'll hit the most occupied one of them tomorrow with 90 bombers escorted by 30 fighters after a 50-Zero sweep. Lets see what we find. Dutch troops in the northern end of Java have now been cut off, and Batavia will fall tomorrow.


Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Tawi Tawi at 71,92
 
Weather in hex: Light cloud
 
Raid spotted at 10 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      H6K4 Mavis x 3
 
 
 
No Japanese losses
 
Allied Ships
      YO-41, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk

 

Those Dutch submarines are super annoying. They share same hex with more than 30 Japanese DDs and some PBs, including 2 dedicated ASW TFs, but the ASW units dont engage them and the submarines have now attacked and hit Japanese DDs(!!!!!) 4 times! Luckily just one of the 4 torps wasnt a dud, and the DD is not in danger of sinking. Retaliatory attacks by other DDs have failed to score a single hit.

Lots of Allied radio activity as well as TFs of various kinds spotted by submarine-borne search aircraft near Hawaii, San Francisco and Sydney. I'm starting to get more SqzMyLemon-like results with my subs as yet 2 more big xAK-only convoys sail past multiple Japanese subs without getting attacked.