Hmmm cheers. That link you posted in the edit was a particularly good read. Long story short, Assange is screwed. I wonder if the whole states extradition was ever going to happen, and if so, if they would still consider it now after all the press?
Let me wear my speculative conspiracy theorist hat for a minute?
Bradley Manning is charged with a number of crimes. The one that gets all the attention is 'aiding the enemy', which I think is the weakest case but carries the strongest penalty. One crime that certainly seems to fit his actions is a bit more important. It's the charge under the
Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (there are actually two charges covering more than 70 documents under this act). This law was amended (by the Patriot Act for
bonus conspiracy points) to be included under RICO.
RICO is the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act. It's designed to take down organised crime. Specifically it makes everyone within an organisation guilty of certain crimes if committed by one member of that organisation, within some parameters. If a mob boss orders a hit he is liable for the murder under RICO.
In this case,
if Manning is found guilty of this particular crime,
if he is found to have been acting as a part of Wikileaks as an organisation,
if his crime were encouraged by that organisation or Assange personally,
then it may be possible to bring RICO charges against Assange. That could carry some serious jail time with a maximum of a decade per charge.
This is the absolute only path I can see that would result in Assange being extradited to the US. And in these conditions he would be, at least from the UK. Under the UK/US extradition treaty simply bringing such charges in the US would meet the requirements for extradition. He wouldn't be at risk of capital punishment (and even if he were a guarantee could be given that it wouldn't be sought). Sweden
might offer greater protection, given that the UK/US treaty favours the US strongly and I'm not aware of a similar deal between Sweden and the US, but I'd still expect such charges to be recognised and valid enough to make the extradition.
It's also worth noting that Assange is staying in the European legal system for a while now. He has to be extradited to Sweden to face the sex crime allegations, then back to the UK to face the consequences of skipping bail. Had he simply faced the charges in the first place he may well have beaten them or served his sentence and been free to go, fleeing out of the US's reach. Now there is a better chance that Manning will be tried and convicted before Assange is at liberty again, leaving the US with the option to extradite him directly from an English prison.
Guess I'm not that good a conspiracy theorist.
EDIT: Another legal link for those interested - Charon QC has just put up an
extended podcast with Carl Gardner along with a lengthy link dump regarding various myths and questions surrounding the case. I'm just about to listen in, but the text and some links are worth checking even if you don't have the 43 minutes for the cast. And if you have more time the links include a panel discussion from the time of the Supreme Court judgement, found
here (also touches on other matters that might not be of interest outside the UK but I do remember it being a good discussion), and a 2010 interview with Assanges lawyer, recently bumped
here.
EDIT2: Looking at
CharonQC's twitter feed there are some more significant details, mostly from
this exchange with Ben McCombe. He first cites the High Court ruling (specifically paragraph 142:8-10 of
this document[.pdf]) to explain the situation with the Swedish allegations. This includes the nature of questioning they want to take place, why it can't take place in England (or the embassy).
He then links
this article about an ex-CIA officer who the US wanted on charges of espionage after his defection to Russia. He was released by Sweden rather than extradited. The main reason for this seems to be that espionage is not a crime you can be extradited for (as it is a political crime) and they couldn't find any other charges for him. Given a lot of the fears regarding American involve hypothetical espionage or similarly political charges I think this story is significant.