A lot of Erik's incompetence stems from the fact that I want people to be able to play their character concepts and have fun, but that having a kingdom with an effective ruler goes against that.
If Erik were competent, a lot of the more interesting events of this game would never have happened simply because Erik would have crushed the perpetrators from the outset.
E: My big hope for Preston and Miring is that, once they've got Dukes/Kings, Erik can begin to govern Elbreth competently and the sort of people that Erik would never even think of hiring might be able to find work in the other duchies or even with the Manskinner clan. This is why I was pushing so hard for Terenos to become a duke earlier: He's got good intentions and Erik trusts him, but he's still willing to get his hands dirty with espionage.
Take Ichor, for example. Erik is honorable, and horribly averse to the use of magic. I haven't shown it much, because the events of Miring overshadow it, but he's still angsty about the spirit calling he made Locanil do. On top of that, he's not a fan of making liberal use of assassins anyways. Had we one or two dukes for him to go to as well, Ichor might have found more interesting work...
Because at the moment I'm still trying to figure out what sort of job to give him. (and really, what sort of tasks to give all the new spooks. Ludwig will likely become Erik's personal assassin, as he's court-friendly. The Mask seems to be good at making his own jobs, and so Erik might just continue to point him at a Kingdom and say "Get to!")
Anyways, I was thinking of how exactly Aulon and Trubaldsome can get out of this situation alive, and I think it's really quite doable.
If their original intent never actually was to attack crown forces, Erik is a reasonable enough person to listen to what Aulon has to say -- especially since he doesn't know yet that Aulon led the peasant mob. Our friend from the Storm Coast will likely not be in a good bargaining position, but he's not in the worst he could be.
People seem to wrongly assume Erik deals with everything by killing people. But...why would he do that with anyone of any use? It's true that Miring likely cannot be quelled without Trubaldsome's assistance, and it's true that Aulon would be incredibly useful in raising the economy.
Trubaldsome and Aulon will be punished somehow if the King has anything to say about it, because Erik certainly isn't going to just let this go, but it's entirely possible that if Aulon plays his cards right here this entire war could end without another drop of blood shed. Erik isn't some raving psychopath.